Experiments in Technical Analysis

ashutosh.krsrivastava · #**871** 10th April 2007, 12:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by karthikmarar

Ashutosh

I just realized that I never posted a afl for the chart. In fact I dont have one which exactly plots the power dips etc on the chart. Currenly the following piece of code is used in my chart. Of course it does not identify all the points mentioned in the Indicator plot. This might help you. If you want a full code to reflect all the points then let me know. i will try to make during the weekend.

Anyway it is great to see your enthusiam and hardwork. All this will pay dividend soon.

warm regards

karthik

Hi Karthik,
yes you are right, you never posted an afl for the chart. I was trying to create an aft for the chart (with full help of your afl for the MACD 1 part). and i just barbaad kar diya. But after looking through your code you posted here, i think i can try to manage it. (But will definately ask for your help if i fail)

thanks for the help
regards
ashutosh

icecubetray · #**872** 10th April 2007, 01:03 AM

Karthik,

Well stated. I agree, "Lag" seems impossible to avoid in all aspects when relying on technical analysis........utilmately the more you try to reduce Lag the more likely you are to catch a whipsaw......as far as I have seen.

my thought was incorporating a volume related device to provide confirmation of a reversal? as an extra confirmation.....I guess I may be talking about two different things.

argh its a tough conversation as this always tends to continue in a circular fashion.........where you can't add more as it reduces the trades and not necessarily increase profitability.......yet you can't increase profitability without adding more restrictions.......yet you reduce trades and miss profitable trades.

I guess there is no purely mechanical system.......with 99.9% success rate?

Trevor

uasish · #**873** 10th April 2007, 06:41 AM

Hi,
May i have the previledge to request a logical discussion by all serious knowledgable members on "TA" vis-a-vis "Mechanical/System Based" trading.
The specific "Data Mining Bias" ,conceptually understanding that the "Average No. Of Trades" does not necessarily increase the "Average Profitability".How much previous success is actually "A Coin Toss" luck/random.
There seems to be a phenemenon ,conceptual change,going world over with serious Traders,in our country also fast catching up.The established "Elliot Wave" , "Edward & Magee Type TA" even "Fibonicchi" is being rubbished & there past success is being attributed more to randomness.
It would be imprudent not to acknowledge the phenemenon.Hence i request all to participate ,so that to enrich my/our understanding & how to take advantage & leverage this knowledge.
My & our long trading proffession is strewn with loads of success/failure,
everyday Mkt humbels us & we strive to learn to excell,atleast by now all of us has identified & discarded few of our wrong beliefs.
Let us be not dogmatic & with a open mind seriously introspect,i yet find everyday, Fib ,Pattern MACD ,RSI,W % R ,working on LIVE Mkt,but the approach that .........."as Nifty / Sensex in 5th Down Structure,hence this is the best place to Short"......,this biasness i have discarded,let the Mkt tell me
let the chart unfold its story,though at the back of my mind i know the specific wave count or Fib level,this worry sitting on my shoulder increased my FEAR level,but this helps actually to filter,only very good convincing Buy signals to get my 100% commitment,otherwise even good signals get discarded.
Looking forward to a lively discussion though i am a MACD ,RSI ,Trendline,EW ,Pattern,Fib believer.

Asish

ashutosh.krsrivastava · #**874** 10th April 2007, 09:37 PM

Hey Karthik,
Need your help again..(cant help it). Well I am not very well versed with afl, I m trying to study it. The code you posted yesterday, i tried it, could you pls (if it is not so much trouble) give me some guidance regarding the following code portion ( the codes marked with ///////)

Code:

for( i = 1; i < BarCount; i++ ){ 
	if( Buy[i] ) 
		PlotText( "Buy\n@" + C[ i ], i, L[ i ] - dist[i], colorCustom12 ); 
	if( Sell[i] )
		PlotText( "Sell\n@" + C[ i ], i, H[ i ] + dist[i] * 1.5, colorRed); 
}
kt=m1-s1;		////////////////////////////kt = difference between m1 (12,26 macd) and signal (12,26,9)
Tp = Ref(kt,-1) == HHV(kt,3);	///////////Tp = Ref(kt, -1) or get value of kt one period ago, which should be equal to highest value of kt for last 3 periods
Vl = Ref(kt,-1) == LLV(kt,3);	///////////v1 = value of kt one period ago, which should be equal to lowest value of kt for last 3 periods
Vx=Vl AND m1>s1;				//////////////
Vy=Tp AND m1<s1;				//////////////

PlotShapes( shapeUpArrow * Vx, IIf(m1<0,colorYellow,colorLime), 0, L, -10 );

PlotShapes(shapeDownArrow * Vy, colorOrange, 0, H, -15 );

After /// i have written something, Is it correct (mean, the way i have understood the code)

desperately needing your help

regards
ashutosh

karthikmarar · #**875** 11th April 2007, 12:49 AM

Hi Ashutosh

You are really working hard , My Friend ..

You understanding is very correct. here we are trying to indentify the Peaks and Valleys of the Histograms. These are good turning points...

warm regards

Karthik

ricktan150 · #**876** 13th April 2007, 11:50 AM

Check this out - a free blog on BSE!
http://stockmarkettrendanalysis.blogspot.com/

karthikmarar · #**877** 13th April 2007, 11:53 PM

Dear Asish

I am also a believer in Indicators though like you said it is rather old fashioned to say so.

In the initial period of my interest in stocks I found the TA stuff ridiculous especially patterns like head and shoulders. So with all the constraints of those days for trading I was mainly a long term investors. I bought only fundamentally strong stocks in the firm belief that they will keep growing and growing. Of course a few like Reliance have given excellent appreciation. But most were losers in the long run.

After wandering in the wilderness of stocks arena I turned my attention to TA albeit out of curiosity. Here too the lack of avenues like the internet and online trading the learning process was too slow. It was only after obtaining a software package I was really able to accelerate the learning process. Now I am a firm believer in TA and doing positional trades with good success rates. Of course there are losers as well but good MM keeps me profitable overall. If somebody says that he has no losers then he must be having a Pinocchio’s nose.

Yes, it will be interesting to discuss the new “phenomenon” as you called it. Let the market tell us what to do, let the chat unfold the story … all the nice sounding words.
So what does one do? How does one decide whether to enter a stock? Toss a coin? Does a long bullish bar today guarantee the same for tomorrow if not for the coming days?
Many many questions .. I am sure, the will be on the mind of members?

So I will leave the privilege of kicking off the discussion to you….

Warm regards

Karthik

aca_trader · #**878** 14th April 2007, 10:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by karthikmarar

In the initial period of my interest in stocks I found the TA stuff ridiculous especially patterns like head and shoulders. Karthik

How unfair!!

How much I am missing the yahoo smily

( today !!(Why it's called smily even when u are crying?)

uasish · #**879** 14th April 2007, 04:46 PM

aca_trader,
Why cant a senior serious trader put forward your logics ,to kick start the process than ridiculing ,this bespeaks & undermine,plz refrain yourself & enlighten us,i would have simply ignored this post ,if it was not from you.

Asish

aca_trader · #**880** 14th April 2007, 11:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by uasish

aca_trader,
Why cant a senior serious trader put forward your logics ,to kick start the process than ridiculing ,this bespeaks & undermine,plz refrain yourself & enlighten us,i would have simply ignored this post ,if it was not from you.

Asish

Hi Ashish!

I am grossly misundeerstood over here. I can not even think of ridiculing a person like Karthik. The lack of yahoo smilies on traderji is a long-time joke between me and Karthik.

Hopw there is no confusion anymore.

Best Regards,
--Ashish

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