Experiments in Technical Analysis

Saint · #**501** 8th December 2006, 06:20 PM

Great going,Karthik and to all other active participants in this thread.........looking forward to 1000.

All the best!!

Happy Trading!
Saint

SavantGarde · #**502** 8th December 2006, 06:51 PM

Hi Karthik,

Please Accept My Heartiest Congratulations on The Milestone Reached With This Thread....Awaiting Next Milestone Before Sensex Reaches 15000......

May The Momentum Be With You!

SavantGarde

rpc · #**503** 8th December 2006, 08:21 PM

hi karthik
pls accept my congrats on acheiving this milestone .May you keep guiding us with your wisdom till eternity
Good Luck
God Bless you
with best wishes
rpc

kkseal · #**504** 8th December 2006, 08:21 PM

Oh! Just realized - after seeing all the congratulatory messages - that the 500th post was made by none other than Yours Faithfully. Am i glad i did! To me this is the best and most interesting thread i have come across in ANY forum.

Congratulations to Karthik & all the other great minds who have contributed.
May both the Uptrend & Momentum be with you.

karthikmarar · #**505** 8th December 2006, 08:51 PM

Hi Sanjay, rpc

Congratulations to you too… And also to Ananth, Murthy, Siva, Amit. It is no longer “My” Thread, It is “Our” Thread. Without yours, and of late kalyan’s contribution this Thread would not be where it is now.

One of the best things this Thread did was to unearth gems like Sanjay and Ananth.

When I started this Thread I never expected this kind of response.
Hope we will see much more experiments and learning Exercise from this thread.

If I have inadvertently left out any contributor’s name, Please pardon me. Congratulation is due to them too….

And Thanks to all the Friends who have been encouraging us on this path of learning.

Warm regards

karthik

karthikmarar · #**506** 8th December 2006, 08:57 PM

Ashish, Saint, Savant, Kalyan

I am at loss of word to express my appreciation for your encouraging words. It is an honor for the team to hear such kind words from people who are themselves great contributors to the forum .

Warm regards

Karthik

jdm · #**507** 8th December 2006, 08:58 PM

congrats karthik,
hope the Indian cricket team could perform like you

cheers,
jdm.

asnavale · #**508** 8th December 2006, 09:45 PM

Hi Karthik,

CONGRATULATIONS AND CELEBRATIONS.

500+ and going from strength to strength. Wish to see 4-digits very soon. And it is possible with your innovative and interesting studies. Your sharing of ideas has made us share your success. Thanks for giving us an opportunity to be a part of this great thread.

The offshoot of this thread "System Implementation ...." is also nearing century mark.

Regards

-Anant

murthymsr · #**509** 8th December 2006, 10:33 PM

dear karthik,

congratulations on achieving this milestone of number of posts in the thread.
it is not just the number posts, the knowledge content of the thread, "Experiments in Technical Analysis" is the real count by which, this thread stands out. it is a milestone in content, which can be referred all the time.

i also see in your posts a concern for the other person.

i read in some book:

"Remember that behind every letter (appeal), there is a person behind. and behind every person, there is a family behind."

the human angle touched upon in the above quote is found in your posts also.

great going, my friend, keep going! ( if you feel that you have read this phrase somewhere, yes, you are right. often, you find saint saying so. imitation is an alternate form of appreciation! )

all the best.

murthymsr

SGM · #**510** 9th December 2006, 10:13 AM

Hello Friends,

We have discussed various systems, back tested them and now we have started (mock) implementation of the systems in the market. In due course we will also get the feed back from the implementation.

Almost all the systems are trend following systems and use some form crossover as a signal (an event in the past, as someone has said

). The back testing shows that the systems work well (especially in trending markets).

One major concern with these systems is that all of them have quite deep draw downs. Now, what if the folio owner (trader/investor) has to cope with the negative string/series of trades initially?

For the average results to show up it is necessary to have a big enough sample size. The Money Management rules should ensure that the folio owner will be able to take high number of trades. To protect the folio owner from going bust before that, it is necessary for the system to have position sizing (and risk management) rules such that a single trade will not give more than 1% loss (draw down) on the entire equity. This rule is used as a primary constrain because the first objective is survival.

During a discussion in the chat room AJAY pointed out, that basing a Stop Loss only on MM rules is a sure way to disaster. The system must have a stop based on technical reasons. “When the reasons you entered the trade are no more there, it is the time for you to get out of the trade.” In my enthusiasm to implement the ideas presented, I glossed over this important consideration. I thank Ajay for his guidance, and request him to continue to do so.

To take the discussion further I would request all the members to contribute and give inputs on related issues. Let’s focus on Trade Management for the current set of systems being used.

Happy Experimenting

Regards
Sanjay

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