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Teach A Man To Fish And.........

Discuss Teach A Man To Fish And......... at the Technical Analysis within the Traderji.com - Discussion forum for Stocks Commodities & Forex; Originally Posted by satish_goteti Hello Saint, I have another question. I am tearing my hair ...


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  #231  
Old 1st July 2006, 01:52 AM
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Default Re: Teach A Man To Fish And.........

Quote:
Originally Posted by satish_goteti
Hello Saint,

I have another question. I am tearing my hair apart to understand this chart. Please have a look at the attached weekly chart of ITD Cementation. Clearly in the last three days there is a Pivot Low on 16th June. The daily charts show this is in a rally for the past four days. The downtrend is in question but we do not have a confirmation of the uptrend. How long do we wait till we make our move? As far as I understand from your previous posts, we only flag this stock onto our watch list. We wait till it makes a higher pivot low and higher pivot high. Lets say in the daily charts it makes a pivot low in the area above the current pivot low 522.70. Things are better and better. But the previous pivot high is in the range of 900. Do we have to wait until this pivot high is taken out? What if the rally does'nt stop? Don't we loose out if we do not buy it early? Sorry for so many questions but hope you get my point.

Regards

Satish
Hi Satish,

Few things before we get to answering doubts.......NEVER TEAR YOUR HAIR OUT,whatever happens in the market or in Life.As the years progress,and hairlines recede and a bald pate awaits you......you gonna regret tearing out your hair once upon a time.

Second point :If you are an investor into ITD,another issue,but if you are trading it ona short to medium time frame,I'd skip this one looking at the low volumes.

But let us take ITD as an example for learning purposes....Yes we have a downtrend in ITD on the weekly charts.Why do we say that?We have taken out the previous pivot low on the weekly charts and we are definitely on the down in the intermed time frames,and threatening to do the same on the longer time frames as well.As it stands now,we are in a downtrend........once we get to that point when we clearly state that we are no more in an uptrend and quite obviously in a downtrend,we think of shorting every rally,and in this case as we cannot short,we merely step aside and wait.......Yes we got that pivot low on the week ending on 16th of June ,and then we got that rally.What do we do here?Nothing.Stand aside and wait for an uptrend.

How do we know that the pivot low made on the above mentioned week is not the bottom after which we are moving up?Simple answer.......we don't.And when we don't know something,or there just is not enough data to tell us that the trend has changed,we do not put our funds into that trade,we just stand aside.

So far,every rally is a selling opportunity.......we haven't come to that point when trends have changed and every dip is a buying opportunity.

Now,at what point do we buy?Let us say that we are going to turn up from here and move upwards,do we buy.We have a higher pivot low on the daily,so why not?The answer to that one is: Depends on the time frame that you are trading.If you are in a trade for few days,then maybe.But there just is nothing like trading with the weekly charts supporting you as well.So do nothing........wait for the weekly charts to give you that higher pivot low before committing funds.At present,this rally is only just that......a rally in a downtrend.

Now let us presume that we get that higher pivot low on the weekly charts,do we wait for the higher pivot highs to be taken out before entering.....Definitely not.Get to get ready mode once you get a higher pivot low(you could also buy here if we get a neat long basal pattern with a higher pivot low).If ITD forms a sideways base and a higher pivot low from here,you could buy here and addover 760 which is the prev lower pivot high.

All the best!
Saint
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File Type: png beml.png (51.4 KB, 197 views)

Last edited by Saint; 1st July 2006 at 02:00 AM.
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  #232  
Old 1st July 2006, 02:04 AM
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Default Re: Teach A Man To Fish And.........

Quote:
Originally Posted by rahulg77
Hi Saint,

I had a question related to his query. Will be take the 900 mark as a pivot high as what I have learned so far and read in dow theory and by martin pring is that a pivot is made if a it retraces 33%, 50% or 66%. Now if we take other theories as well 12.5% is minimum retracement levels we take. In this case if take the high of 19th april, the move around 24th may was a mere sidway movement and not a retracement to qualify as a new pivot point.

Pls comment on the same and corrrect me if i have misunderstood the concept of a pivot.

Rgds

Rahul


P.S and yes it would be nice to see an answer to his question to as when would u enter this trade.
Hi Rahul,

Too sleepy to answer.....shall do so over the weekend!

All the best!
Saint
  #233  
Old 1st July 2006, 02:44 AM
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Default Re: Teach A Man To Fish And.........

Quote:
Originally Posted by Saint
Just a few charts..........

Below is the chart of POLYPLEX CORP just denoting how the trendlines are drawn.

The Uptrendlines therefore act as Support,once cracked to the downside,notice how the Downtrendlines act as resistance.

In what way does this knowledge help us in our trading?We detect a change in uptrend,and we enter the stock,once again using all that we have learnt so far.The trendlines allow us to stay in that trade as long as the trendlines hold.

The moment we get a close below the Uptrendline,we are out.If you are looking to short,wait for a feeble rally towards the former uptrendline.That's an area to short.

Vice versa for the downtrendlines.......Have a look at the 2nd chart of POLYPLEX,self explanatory.

Happy Trading!
Saint
Saint,

One more question from me again. In the above did you mean "We detect a change in downtrend,and we enter the stock,once again using all that we have learnt so far.The trendlines allow us to stay in that trade as long as the trendlines hold".

If what you wrote was correct, why do we enter a stock if we detect a change in uptrend? Did you mean a decline?

Sorry if this sounds stupid but I wanted to be absolutely sure.

Regards
Satish

PS : I always thought reading your posts twice I got what you were saying, but when I read the charts I want to buy, I am back to zero. This question popped up in my 6th iteration of your threads.

Last edited by satish_goteti; 1st July 2006 at 03:21 AM.
  #234  
Old 1st July 2006, 01:04 PM
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Default Re: Teach A Man To Fish And.........

Hi Anupama,

Sincere apologies on missing out on your question,and thank you for reminding me.Great question........not that easy to answer though.

Let us go through the question by Rahul and Satish first before we delve into your question.

Saint
  #235  
Old 1st July 2006, 02:15 PM
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Default Re: Teach A Man To Fish And.........

Quote:
Originally Posted by Saint
Hi Rahul,

Too sleepy to answer.....shall do so over the weekend!

All the best!
Saint

Dear Saint,

will wait for your reply. Hope you slept well

Rgds

Rahul
  #236  
Old 1st July 2006, 02:29 PM
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Default Re: Teach A Man To Fish And.........

thx for the help how do we open threads
regards


As the famous Chinese Proverb goes,"Give a man a fish,you feed him for a day.Teach a man to fish,and you feed him for a lifetime."

This thread is a result of multiple emails from fellow members with a desire to learn how to trade,rather than to just take the calls here and there.This thread may not catch the interest of many,as the "many" are always interested in the 'fish' rather than learning how to.But this thread is intended for the few........the few that want to learn,or at least make a beginning to learn how to trade,the few that do not wish to bow to any other individual or organiztion as authority when it comes to decision making but instead wish to come to these decisions by himself/herself.

This thread will be of no help to those who make trading decisions based on the fundamentals.This thread will be of no help to the many that wish to know what this company did or wat was the news when a stock broke out.This thread will be of no use to a few members here,all brilliant traders,all great minds--Amit,Jaideep,Ajay,Vinay(JoyVerma),Joy_Mitali,Vince ,Karthik,Ivan among others for there is nothing new that this thread has to offer to them,that they do not already know and are implementing day after day,trade after trade.

This thread is for the newcomer to charts and who has that desire to learn.It is for the student of the market by a student of the market.I am no master,no teacher,no expert,all words that I abhor........this thread is to my friends who want to learn,from a friend who is just sharing what little he knows.

All the best!
Saint[/quote]
  #237  
Old 1st July 2006, 03:04 PM
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Default Re: Teach A Man To Fish And.........

Quote:
thx for the help how do we open threads
regards
Hi Siloni,

That was the easiest question till date.......Go to the forum that you want to post your thread in,let us say "EQUITIES",so get into the Equities forum,and you will find on the top left hand corner "OPEN NEW THREAD"......click there and post your new thread.

Saint
  #238  
Old 1st July 2006, 03:17 PM
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Default Re: Teach A Man To Fish And.........

Quote:
Originally Posted by satish_goteti
Saint,

One more question from me again. In the above did you mean "We detect a change in downtrend,and we enter the stock,once again using all that we have learnt so far.The trendlines allow us to stay in that trade as long as the trendlines hold".

If what you wrote was correct, why do we enter a stock if we detect a change in uptrend? Did you mean a decline?

Sorry if this sounds stupid but I wanted to be absolutely sure.

Regards
Satish
Hi Satish,

Great going..........my mistake.Shall correct it......Thank you for bringing it to light.

Saint
  #239  
Old 1st July 2006, 04:28 PM
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Default Re: Teach A Man To Fish And.........

Quote:
Originally Posted by rahulg77
Hi Saint,

I had a question related to his query. Will be take the 900 mark as a pivot high as what I have learned so far and read in dow theory and by martin pring is that a pivot is made if a it retraces 33%, 50% or 66%. Now if we take other theories as well 12.5% is minimum retracement levels we take. In this case if take the high of 19th april, the move around 24th may was a mere sidway movement and not a retracement to qualify as a new pivot point.

Pls comment on the same and corrrect me if i have misunderstood the concept of a pivot.

Rgds

Rahul
Hi Rahul,

Attached below is a simple chart of ITD,and where to buy and sell.

Keep things simple and trade what is obvious to the eye.......Pivots are just that-turning points.The amount of retracement however tells us about the strength or weakness of the preexisting trend,which we can get into shortly.

Think the chart explains itself........

Saint
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File Type: png ITD Buys n Sells.png (55.1 KB, 233 views)
  #240  
Old 1st July 2006, 07:02 PM
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Default Re: Teach A Man To Fish And.........

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobatman2001
Hi! Saint,

Many thanks for your reply. I am not getting into any trades at this point of time. Thanks to your "brilliant" thread, I have been going through a lot of charts.

My query was totally from an educational point of view.

The reason why I am confused is that many a times, if you keep referring to the daily charts, you tend to miss the big rallies. And many a times, if you refer to the weekly charts, you lose a lot of your profits (if there is a downtrend in the daily charts). This is what is bothering me.

Thanks a million for everything!
Hi Gobatman,

Always best to let the weekly and daily confirm each other before an entry.Our objective is to grab the meat out of the trend.So,let the daily rally,stay out of it,then let it pullback,and then if we form a higher pivot low on the weekly,grab it.Yes,you would miss out on the first rally........you would also lose some profits at the top.But there is lots of money to be made from the meat in between....and lots of restful sleep at nights knowing that the charts do not conflict with one another.

All the best!
Saint
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