Teach A Man To Fish And.........

Saint · #**1341** 27th March 2008, 02:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by prabhjeetrana

Hello Saint,

I was watching the Educomp chart where you had taught the buy set up on weekly charts. I have observed same kind of set up on ONMOBILE charts, but my poor mind has some doubts:-

1. The Pivot high of 655 has not been cleared though we have a higher pivot high, so do we take the trade or wait for 655 to be taken out.

2. Secondly if i wait for 655 to be taken out the stop would be at pivot low of 455, so the risk/reward ratio may be highly scewed and the target would have to be atleast 1255 for risk/reward of 1/3, is it advisable to take such high risk or can i take a position at clearing of last week top at 515 and stoploss at 455 pivot

Regards

Hi Prabhjeet,

So far on ONMOBILE,we have a rally the last few days,we have a weekly set up taking out the previous week's high.

Previous Pivot high on the daily=588.90

Now,do NOT wait for previous highs of the weekly to get taken out.......you have the first criteria already,weekly taking out previous high in an uptrend,now wait for the pivot to form on the daily.....you got that pivot as of yesterday and today.

The buy would be the high of today's bar,with the stop a bit below today's bar.

Saint

Saint · #**1342** 27th March 2008, 02:46 AM

Few other scenarios:

The charts in ONMOBILE just went vertical and no pivot low was formed,a straight up V-shaped recovery vertical move........then the entry would be over the previous pivot high of 588.90(I would get in partially for the simple reason my stop is too far away).

Saint

Saint · #**1343** 27th March 2008, 02:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by djsinha

Prabhjeetrana, we have a higher pivot low only. We'll acc to our system, wait for the pivot high of 652 to be overtaken. We place our trade above 652 with stoploss of 455. Don't enter now. Let it take out it's prev pivot high of 652.....only then can we confirm that it's in a uptrend.

Nope,DJ.......No need for that......this whole game is about probability,assessing risks and taking rewards....Even though we are trading the intermediate uptrend,we are still trying to fine tune our entry as per the daily charts.

Weekly Charts:Higher pivot lows signifying uptrend,took out previous week's high.......right,that's it.Nice....but an entry fine tune as per daily charts.

Daily Charts:Nice rally....If this takes out 588.90,in above that previous pivot high.Else,once a pivot is formed,enter above the high of that pivot formed(in this case tomorrow if that happens).......

You want the daily pivot low to confirm ....and therefore we wait for that pivot to get taken out.......But weekly,so long as an uptrend persists,you are buying declines,and the moment you get an inkling from the daily,you are in....Waiting for the uptrend to confirm is too high risk.....Hope you understand,do get back to me if doubts persist.

Quote:

Comming to your 2nd question, When we enter at 652, 455 will be our stoploss. Acc to MM rules, total amt u buy will be
(x% of total money u want to trade)/(buy price - stoploss).
where, x = allowable risk percentage u want to bear.
That's it. We don't consider target while trading. We only try to manage risk. And let our profits fly.

Nothing wrong with all this.......except entry not at 652,and stop loss not at 455

Quote:

Saint will be in a position to give u better view.
(I've attached chart of onmobile).

Cheers
djsinha

All the best,DJ

Saint

Saint · #**1344** 27th March 2008, 03:02 AM

[quote=RSI;167052]Dear prabhjeetrana,

Quote:

Your question is directed towards Saint. But I am poking my nose uninvited. Understanding is that Saint will pardon me for that. He is very generous. I know it very well.

Never poking your nose,my friend.........always a pleasure!

Quote:

I am not offending you nor shall I ever try to do so. You seem to be excited to take the trade. That is my guess. Excitement is the last thing in trading. Keep it aside and think logically before taking the trade. If you are taking the trade then you must wait for the completion of the candle. In the chart posted by you, the weekly candle. Otherwise, you are anticipating that weekly close is going to be higher that last week's low. But can you anticipate such a close? If you are an experienced trader and if you can read the chart very well, no problem. Otherwise, please make it a habit not to trade on weekly chart, that too on the last weekly candle before the closure of week. What are your plans if it were to close below the low of the last week candle? How does the picture look in such a case? You will have an outside bar having greatly negative implications.

I donot know whether you have done multitimeframe analysis and then decided to take the trade. If that is the case, then you must be taking trade on daily chart or intraday chart by looking at the weekly chart, not the otherway round.

Of couse, I have left the final decision to Saint. If he disagrees with my views, I am open to all criticisms. I could not resist myself after seeing the chart posted by you.
Thanks and regards
R. S. Iyer

Yep on the multi time frame analysis bit.........

Answers as posted above.

Thanx RS,

Saint

Saint · #**1345** 27th March 2008, 03:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lvgandhi

On 11/3/2008, there is pivot high at 588.9. Am I correct or not. If I am correct, then we should wait for that.

Spot on,LV......Except if we get a pivot high lower than that and a higher pivot low as well as set up in last two days.

But yes when these posts were posted,last 2 days candles' were not available,and entry would have been higher than 588.9

Saint

Saint · #**1346** 27th March 2008, 03:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by satya_pinku2003

Hi

RSI ... my veiw please comment

according to Saints method we take two time frame into consideration like if we want to trade daily we take weekly chart as guidance .... in this case if prabhjeetrana want to trade in weekly chart then he has to wait for weekly close, again before that we should have monthly trend in upward direction if we want to take a long call on weekly chart but iin this case i can get data only from feb ... may be new company listed in that month

so in my veiw dont we have too litle data as we can not say whether we are in monthly uptrend or not ?

please correct me if i m wrong

waiting reply

Regards
Satya

Yep,Satya too little data,for a clear cut reply...........but the buy over today's bar means we are in a daily uptrend,that's for sure.......Are we in a weekly uptrend,we have to wait and watch.......The risk is not too much anyway.....For now all you have clearly is the daily,and a high over this pivot signifies that it just went into an uptrend.

Saint

Saint · #**1347** 27th March 2008, 03:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by prabhjeetrana

Dj Sinha and RSI, both your comments are welcome.As pointed out rightly by you RSI i am excited about the trade and there is a good reason. Although I am not as experienced as many of my trader friends here but whatever Technical analysis I have learnt tells me to buy because as far as I am concerned the bottom for this year is firmly in place at 4450 nifty levels and any dips will be buying opportunity.

I am sure Saint would like me to wait for Pivot to be taken out at 655 levels but then the qquestion of Risk/Reward remains

No question of waiting for pivot highs on the weekly to be taken out.......if we follow this style,we'd be perenially waiting ...

Saint

Saint · #**1348** 27th March 2008, 03:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sanjay_jay_pd

hi,
As the market Show , is this a sign of new rise.

Welcome,Sanjay,to Traderji!!

Saint

ps:Still a wait n watch for now......

Saint · #**1349** 27th March 2008, 03:29 AM

ONMOBILE daily chart attached!

Saint

satya_pinku2003 · #**1350** 27th March 2008, 08:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RSI

Hi Satya

First of all, our friend prabhjeetrana has not told his method of analysis as to why he is turning bullish on Onmobile. All that he has posted is a weekly chart and there he tried to anticipate higher weekly low (than previous weekly low) and perhaps may be a higher close as well. That is why I wrote in my previous post that I donot know whether he has come to this conlusion on the basis of multi timeframe analysis. I also tried to guess his method of conclusion (if he has done such a method of multi timeframe analysis) that he should have tried to analyse weekly chart from daily and intraday charts. That is why I sounded off a warning to him in my previous post. His method of analysis was and perhaps is still unclear. If he is trying to take trade on the basis of weekly candle alone, I again warned him about some of the possible outcomes at the end of week and I tried to know whether he is prepared for such an eventuality. You cannot rule out the possibility told by me in the last post. The whole confusion arose because we do not know why our friend has turned bullish on a candle which is not closed yet.

You are absolutely right when you point out that we will have to look at monthly charts for taking trades on weekly charts and you are again 100% correct when you say that as far as Onmobile chart is concerned, we do not have sufficient number of monthly candles to make analysis in the first place.

My sincere advice is never try to out smart the market. If one tries that market will prove that it is far more smarter than anybody including me and you or anyone in this forum. Let the market show the direction. Let it show the path of least resistance. Then we follow that path.

I hate to quote my own post as it would amount to blowing my own trumpet. But still to avoid unnecessary repetition, I also request you read my earlier reply to amit in this thread, which was made this morning. Read second portion of my post, which was specifically quoted by Saint in approval. This is my personal request to my friend prabhjeetrana also. Read that second part and again compare it with the possible outcome at the end of week postulated by me in my previous post.

Thank you RSI

Regards
Satya