Google on the crossroads

Hi all folks who have 'global' interests/ inclinations/ investments/intentions for investment ..........

Google is precariously close to closing the gap it made in late Oct 05 (See chart... Y axis is US$, for info)

Calling all TA experts and others for opinions on whether that gap will be filled soon? (Not to forget that there are solid Fundamental reasons why Google reversed in Jan 06...after all there's no smoke without fire)

Or any other comments generally on Google, or on Gaps ...

AGILENT

PS I know its the BSE/NSE which all of us are pre-occupied with these days, but distractions are helpful sometimes as they broaden our vision, specially if they can educate as well

Agreed this gap is support for google. It is showing some signs of bounce
back on the indicators. If the support holds can see a decent rally.
Regards,
vinay

The is a gap around $210-220. Do you'll think that will be filled too??

Guys thanks ..

Would very much welcome some Fundamenrtal views too.

From investors/traders who are extra IT savvy , perhaps , or others who have a good idea of Google's evolving business model / competition etc .. some high flying MBA from any IIM maybe ... where Google is sure to have been a case study discussed threadbare ....

(After all, it is the Fundamentals that drive the Technicals , like the dog wagging its tail ... and not the other way around)

AGILENT

Well Agilent,

Though it should not be considered a fundamental view as I have not done any research neither I have ever gone through Google thread-barely, here are a few views from what I had read in previous months:

Fundamentally Google is very strong and some of its recent initiatives like putting together Open Source Softwares, steps towards web-based computing, Web 2.0 etc. are really going to make the company stronger. In the recent past Google has got a heavy no. of patents in future technologies, still it's undisputed numero uno in web-search and despite some complains the "Google Ads" program is highly successful.

Now come my views. Hope you are able to bear with them

The question arises if everything is so fundamentally strong, why a downfall in the share prices. As TA's we are aware that besides Fundamentals, in the short-term, emotions play a very big role in pricing of stocks. After predictions like the stock will reach $600 and a very heavy media focus on its new launches & acquisitions, the stock had run up very fast. So eventually at some point it had to correct. However, in that correction phase, came S&P's research which degraded it alongwith Google's result guidance which were way below everybody's expectations and the stock cracked wiping billions of Investors' Wealth (Why Newspapers don't call it paper wealth) in one single day. Besides, the loss of public image after providing concessions to the Chinese Communist Government and the fear of a long-drawn battle with Bush Administration on the issues of revealing the identity and search-contents of its users contributed to down fall as well.

Coming back to the results guidance issue, I would like readers to go back to April, 2003 when Infosys lost 50% of its value on a single day after projecting poor annual guidance. Seeing from today, we know that Infy did not become a fundamentally poor company due to one poor guidance. Sometimes, market reactions are not in line with fundamentals.

Now if that does mean Google is invulnerable, of course not. Like other companies it faces risks as well and concentration of revenue to a few streams is one of the major risks. Google is trying to open new revenue streams but only time will tell how much successful it will be in doing so keeping in check the risk of excessive diversification at the same time. However, the major worry, to me, is not the revenue concentration but the way in which it openly wants to destroy Microsoft. Somebody said that those who don't remember history are bound to be doomed. one can see that the strategy to take on " William Gates II" has become vocal since Mr. Eric Schmidt has taken charge as CEO and corporate history lovers would remember that the person with the same strategy killed two of the very good success stories. No point for guessing that I am talking about Novell & Sun.

Hope, I have not bored anybody.

Best Regards,

Google, already the Internet's most closely followed stock, will be added to the index as of the close of trading on March 31, Standard & Poor's said in an announcement.

The scrip jumped $21.51 to $363 in early trading Friday. But shares traded as high as $375 in after-hours action Thursday, creating a nice environment for anyone who'd been long shares of Google sub-$350 to cash out.


What a bounce ! (see chart)

I suppose the gap of Oct 05 will have to wait many more mths (years?) b4 it gets filled

Aca
Thanks for yr perspective ... good commentary

AGILENT

Sudoku1 maharaj ki jay