Do we have to follow elloit wave rules religiously to draw one???

I have been studying elloit waves since quite few days now......I am aware of most of its primary rules by now.....But what I have found that, it is not possible to draw a perfect elloit wave on any time frame (atleast one of its most primary rule breaks down....

Lets take following example....bear cycle that started from Jan-2008 to Oct-2008.....Rule says that 3rd wave should not be the smallest one but in this case it is smallest one......So have I drawn this elloit wave wrong?? OR if such vioalation of one of elloit wave rule can be accepted?

For me, Elliot waves give people a 'good feeling' when they recognise (even predict!) one.

But as you rightly point out, they do not always play out to a 'nice logical solution'.

WOD,

Your markings of downmove is incorrect....The third wave in impulse pattern can NEVER be the shortest of the three waves.....the downwave was a corrective abc A,B,C pattern....the downmove does not have 5 wave impulse pattern and the marking 5 wave impulse pattern is wrong because first 5 wave pattern is never the ending pattern...

Now let us do some crystal ball gazing...From the bottom,we are having an impulse pattern....4 waves are completed and we are in the 5th or last sub-wave of this five wave pattern...I expect the 5th wave to end in 4750-5000 range...after that we may have a violent break of 2-4 trendline...which will confirm the end of 5th wave....then we may have a ABC corrective pattern lasting for about 4 months...and the larger 2nd wave may take the market to 4600-4300 range....it may create panic and bearmarket like atmosphere...after that a strong 3rd larger wave may unfold taking us in new territory...that may be a very profitable wave to trade....

This is my analysis as of now....it can change....it can prove to be totally wrong as the market unfolds....

Best wishes...and encash on the larger 3rd wave....( it will be after 4 months though ).....

Smart_trade

Thanks ST Da; I was very much expecting your guidence. But still I have some few queries; please take some time to answer these:

When you said that my marking of downwave move is incorrect, did you take into consideration the bull market that started from March 2003? and that the downmove started from Jan 2008 to Oct 2008 should be considered as corrective wave of that bull market?

I was considering period from Jan 2008 to Oct 2008 as bear market cycle so I was trying to mark 5 wave pattern on that period...

As far as impulse pattern that we are considering (which was started from march 2009)......I was into thinking that ABC corrective pattern was ended in July 2009 itself when we touched 3900 and that we have entered into 3 rd wave.....It would be great for our understanding if you could tell us your view as why you think that it would take another 4 months for getting out of this corrective pattern?


Thanks....