Nifty to retest 2300-2250

#1
hello friends, my price analysis says nifty will retest 2300 to 2250. what you say? please contribute your valuable information.
i shorted nifty ,good quantities. will short remaining on rise. watch out for 2870. strong kick ass resistance lol:D
looking forward frm u guys , good luck shreya
 
O

OneBull

Guest
#2
hello friends, my price analysis says nifty will retest 2300 to 2250. what you say? please contribute your valuable information.
i shorted nifty ,good quantities. will short remaining on rise. watch out for 2870. strong kick ass resistance lol:D
looking forward frm u guys , good luck shreya


Well it might even go to 1500-1450, but I really don't think so, Bank lending rates are lower now, 3rd Quarter results are better than expected, Obama has started well 1st day itself, by helping peace in Gaza similar indications to India/Pak. Freezed pay of Senators + no gifts from private lobbies. He really is doing a lot of things that will make economy revive:rolleyes:
 
#4
hello friends, my price analysis says nifty will retest 2300 to 2250. what you say? please contribute your valuable information.
i shorted nifty ,good quantities. will short remaining on rise. watch out for 2870. strong kick ass resistance lol:D
looking forward frm u guys , good luck shreya
I don't think shorting the Nifty is a good idea at this point in time. Refer to Nifty daily chart (attached).

NIFTY.GIF

After breaking the intermediate-trend line in october, Nifty made a low of 2252 at Point-A on 27-Oct-08 (diwali). Since then there is a triangle formation with a higher bottom at Point-B (20-nov-08). The best place to go short after this was at Point-C when the intermediate trend line was again broken to the downside. you could have earned about 200 points till today (Point-D). However, today we have bounced from exactly the lower trend line i.e. Point-D at about 2681. If this continues, short-covering might take us to very high levels in a matter of few days. It would have been better had you waited for this triangle's lower trend line to be broken before going short. If its broken in a day or two, that might easily take us lower to test the Point-B and Point-A lows.

Thats just my analysis. I am open to other ideas.

Cheers:)
 

AW10

Well-Known Member
#5
Why not ? Nifty can very well retest the prev low of October or it can even go below that. In such a strongly bearish sentiment all around the world, I struggle hard to find any convincing reason to be bullish. IMO, we are yet to see panic selling. Market has been down for almost 3 to 4 years during depression period /major bear mkt. We have been down only for 12 months so far.

The world is just coming to accept that we are in a big big mess.. Most of the people have not seen such a big mess.. so it is anybody's guess that it is going to end soon.

From tradings perspective, monthly/weekly charts are not giving any sign of reversal so I am staying with the current trend which is down. I will rather wait to bulls to comeback and show me on my charts first before I change my opinion to bullish.

Happy Trading.
 
O

OneBull

Guest
#7
I don't think shorting the Nifty is a good idea at this point in time. Refer to Nifty daily chart (attached).

View attachment 10944

After breaking the intermediate-trend line in october, Nifty made a low of 2252 at Point-A on 27-Oct-08 (diwali). Since then there is a triangle formation with a higher bottom at Point-B (20-nov-08). The best place to go short after this was at Point-C when the intermediate trend line was again broken to the downside. you could have earned about 200 points till today (Point-D). However, today we have bounced from exactly the lower trend line i.e. Point-D at about 2681. If this continues, short-covering might take us to very high levels in a matter of few days. It would have been better had you waited for this triangle's lower trend line to be broken before going short. If its broken in a day or two, that might easily take us lower to test the Point-B and Point-A lows.

Thats just my analysis. I am open to other ideas.

Cheers:)

I want to use this software, can u please send me link for its download, I agree with you, Bulls r round the corner
 
#8
Most of the people have not seen such a big mess.. so it is anybody's guess that it is going to end soon.
yes even my kid guesses the trend is down:D, but having guess or opinion and trading live by it is more than knowing or guessing. i have posted live trading action which is i guess not based on just guess:D hey AW no offence buddy, just want to tell difference between having opinion and trading it by urself under proven methods ,right:)

good luck, shreyaa
 
#10
Why not ? Nifty can very well retest the prev low of October or it can even go below that. In such a strongly bearish sentiment all around the world, I struggle hard to find any convincing reason to be bullish. IMO, we are yet to see panic selling. Market has been down for almost 3 to 4 years during depression period /major bear mkt. We have been down only for 12 months so far.

The world is just coming to accept that we are in a big big mess.. Most of the people have not seen such a big mess.. so it is anybody's guess that it is going to end soon.

From tradings perspective, monthly/weekly charts are not giving any sign of reversal so I am staying with the current trend which is down. I will rather wait to bulls to comeback and show me on my charts first before I change my opinion to bullish.

Happy Trading.
Yep, you are right that markets have been down by almost 3 to 4 years, and we have been down for only 12 months. But thats just time wise. If you see price-wise, we have already retraced about 50% from the all-tim highs which is as much as any bear markets.

As for the world accepting that we are in a mess, it had always over-reacted to downsides, as it had done in May-2006 or in the late 1990s. But every time the markets were successfully able to climb back and surpass the previous highs. You can go to http://dshort.com/ and you will find all major bear markets from historical perspective.

To rajatheroyal: As for Nikkei and the Dow-Jones 1929 recession, you have only two examples when the Bear was a chronic phenomenon. But in case of most other bear-markets, recovery was much earlier than that. So whatever the present conditions, the historical odds definitely favour the bulls.

Correct me if i'm wrong. Historically except Nikkei there is no other market in the world which has failed to come out of any prolonged bear-market, why would'nt they out of this one?

Cheers.
 

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