Sir! by what points you disgree that it is not a Head and Shoulder(H&S) pattern? Can you ellaborate, I will learn something here, if you can clarify!
Have you seen weekly chart of NIFTY? It also showed the similar H&S pattern in Jan 2008 and also achieved shoulder target?
I agree with you about reliability of pattern! but then this science is not 100%.
Points to disagree with according to traditional texts:
1) Slope of the neckline is too steep. The (supposed) right shoulder peak is 50% more than the () left shoulder peak which destroys the validity of the pattern.
2) Volume in the () right shoulder rise is 3 times as much as the () left shoulder peak and twice as much as the () head.
Studies on the reliability of this pattern has shown mixed results and large remained inconclusive as to its predictive ability. Source:
Code:
http://www.olsendata.com/papers/200405-Omrane-PredictiveSuccessProfitabilityChartPatterns.pdf
Code:
http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/faculty/gsavin/papers/HSrevision_paw_10%2019%2006.pdf
Amidst the uncertainty surrounding the identification of this pattern, and the predictive power of the same, perhaps it is not wise to put money into trading it.
Also, by no means is the H&S pattern (in the form you identify it) nor is a bulk of what technical analysis proposes "science" but rather pseudoscience.