BHEL - Is the Trend Ending?

man4urheart · #1 17th August 2008, 09:30 PM

Lets see how it evolves.
If shoulder completes and breakout happens we can target 903 in Coming months

columbus · #2 17th August 2008, 10:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by man4urheart

Lets see how it evolves.
If shoulder completes and breakout happens we can target 903 in Coming months

man4urheart,

Thanks for the neat graphs. Even the 6 month chart shows downtrend in the counter.But the target of 903/- appears to be too harsh.Target of 1200~1300 in short-term appears to be OK. But the counter has tremendous volume record, in last six month the volume was steady between 1.5~2 millions.Of late the volumes has improved a bit ,does it indicate interest in this counter?

man4urheart · #3 18th August 2008, 12:59 AM

Check the volume in 2001- 2002 period, that is buying interest!

I will call this volume as SMART money getting out!

But then lets see H&S completes or not!

oxusmorouz · #4 23rd August 2008, 08:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by man4urheart

Check the volume in 2001- 2002 period, that is buying interest!

I will call this volume as SMART money getting out!

But then lets see H&S completes or not!

You can call it what ever you want but that by no explanation is a head and shoulders, even if we go by the hypothesis that H&S work.

columbus · #5 23rd August 2008, 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oxusmorouz

You can call it what ever you want but that by no explanation is a head and shoulders, even if we go by the hypothesis that H&S work.

BHEL has 6month High/Low at 2100/1350.One month back it's was in the range of 1350~1580 for a month or so.Definitely it has come out DOWNS ,and at this juncture it is not super bullish,certainly it is gaining from lows.The good news is that the volumes in this counter is ROCK STEADY at 1.65 millions on average. A counter to watch.

musicjunkie · #6 23rd August 2008, 08:58 PM

Whats H&s? Simply a break from trendline ,let it break recent low then well see...

kkseal · #7 23rd August 2008, 09:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oxusmorouz

You can call it what ever you want but that by no explanation is a head and shoulders, even if we go by the hypothesis that H&S work.

Ha Ha As they say Oxy, a little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

Regards

man4urheart · #8 25th August 2008, 05:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kkseal

Ha Ha As they say Oxy, a little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

Regards

I agree I have little knowledge! I am new to science of technical analysis!

Laughing on others is easy, maybe you can help here and correct me, what I am doing wrong. It will also help me learn something new sir?

man4urheart · #9 25th August 2008, 05:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oxusmorouz

You can call it what ever you want but that by no explanation is a head and shoulders, even if we go by the hypothesis that H&S work.

Sir! by what points you disgree that it is not a Head and Shoulder(H&S) pattern? Can you ellaborate, I will learn something here, if you can clarify!

Have you seen weekly chart of NIFTY? It also showed the similar H&S pattern in Jan 2008 and also achieved shoulder target?

I agree with you about reliability of pattern! but then this science is not 100%.

oxusmorouz · #10 25th August 2008, 08:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by man4urheart

Sir! by what points you disgree that it is not a Head and Shoulder(H&S) pattern? Can you ellaborate, I will learn something here, if you can clarify!

Have you seen weekly chart of NIFTY? It also showed the similar H&S pattern in Jan 2008 and also achieved shoulder target?

I agree with you about reliability of pattern! but then this science is not 100%.

Points to disagree with according to traditional texts:
1) Slope of the neckline is too steep. The (supposed) right shoulder peak is 50% more than the () left shoulder peak which destroys the validity of the pattern.
2) Volume in the () right shoulder rise is 3 times as much as the () left shoulder peak and twice as much as the () head.

Studies on the reliability of this pattern has shown mixed results and large remained inconclusive as to its predictive ability. Source:

Code:

http://www.olsendata.com/papers/200405-Omrane-PredictiveSuccessProfitabilityChartPatterns.pdf

Code:

http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/faculty/gsavin/papers/HSrevision_paw_10%2019%2006.pdf

Amidst the uncertainty surrounding the identification of this pattern, and the predictive power of the same, perhaps it is not wise to put money into trading it.

Also, by no means is the H&S pattern (in the form you identify it) nor is a bulk of what technical analysis proposes "science" but rather pseudoscience.

The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to oxusmorouz For This Useful Post:
man4urheart (25th August 2008), uasish (24th August 2008)

The Following User Says Thank You to oxusmorouz For This Useful Post:
man4urheart (26th August 2008)