Is the Phase 3 of the Bear Market near ?

rajivkhatlawala · #1 20th June 2008, 06:06 PM

(Article posted on my blog today )

As per the Dow Theory (relating to Technical Analysis) Bull Markets and Bear markets have three phases. You will find a somewhat detailed discussion on this in the Indian context on Page no. 37 of my book.

Since July 2007 (a year back), while explaining the Dow Theory , I have been indicating to the participants of my workshops that , at that time, we were nearing the last phase of the Bull market characterized by extremely high retail participation.

More recently, after the Jan 08 crash, I was again suggesting to the participants that the first phase of the bear market seems to have started which should be followed in subsequent months by a deterioration of the fundamentals. In the ensuing months we did see economic and corporate fundamentals weaken- lower profits, slowdown, rising inflation, crude oil et al.

I presume we are currently in the second phase of the bear market which may still last some more weeks before the Phase 3 starts.

IN THE ATTACHED CHART , I have tried to mark the phases of the bear market on the Nifty chart – though it may not be too accurate in terms of time. I presume the ‘H & S’ pattern on the Nifty / Sensex and it’s subsequent violation of the neckline , is only further validating that we are about to enter the phase three in the coming weeks.

‘Prices tell you more about the future than Annual reports’

All of you ….Fasten your seat belts !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala

CreditViolet · #2 20th June 2008, 06:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rajivkhatlawala

Since July 2007 (a year back), while explaining the Dow Theory , I have been indicating to the participants of my workshops that , at that time, we were nearing the last phase of the Bull market characterized by extremely high retail participation.

Very nice spam job, its officially called a Product Placement where the artist randomnly inserts tidbits of self-promotion along with the regular script.

rajivkhatlawala · #3 20th June 2008, 07:21 PM

I am sorry .. but that was surely not the intention ...

Hope readers concentrate on the analysis , rather than worrying of such small things ...

I do not intend to advertise in any case ...
Thanks
CA Rajiv

sachinmathur · #4 21st June 2008, 10:59 AM

hello friends, I am new memeber in this site

prabhjeetrana · #5 21st June 2008, 11:24 AM

I dont think that i is of any use to now tell us that we are in bla bla stages of the Bull Market. As a good follower of Dow Theory the end of the bull market should have been foreseen rather than now seeing it in hindsight.

Pick up any long term indicator anyone can see the bear phase now, only thing now remains that how many can short this bear market and get out at the right time. Will wait for your forecasts on Bull Market then

rajivkhatlawala · #6 21st June 2008, 06:17 PM

Prabhajeet quoted : As a good follower of Dow Theory the end of the bull market should have been foreseen rather than now seeing it in hindsight

Dear Mr Moderator .... This is the reason that I had to mention that I had indicated to my participant a year ago of which stage of the market we were in. I presume you got the point now ???

Mr Prabhajeet : You may specifically note that this is not a hindsight analysis. If you are a regular reader of my posts, none of them are 'post-mortem'. They are always forward viewing!
Also, I am sure this is a constructive forum. Even knowing that you are in 'bla bla' stage (as quoted by you) is a very useful information for investors and traders ... Again I repeat - to all reader- it will be useful for all of us to read posts in a constructive manner , rather than with a pre-set criticial mentalility!!

Well friends , let's begin to read more constructively from today !!

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala

CreditViolet · #7 21st June 2008, 06:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rajivkhatlawala

Dear Mr Moderator .... This is the reason that I had to mention that I had indicated to my participant a year ago of which stage of the market we were in. I presume you got the point now ???

But what is the point in indicating that you run workshops? And how can one possibly make sure that you did predict what you claimed to have. Maybe you had no ulterior motive but this is how our regular 9-5 scamster at Traderji operates. You might check out posts from our regular scamster Dev Mookerji, he is a master in these techniques.

Quote:

Originally Posted by rajivkhatlawala

Mr Prabhajeet : You may specifically note that this is not a hindsight analysis. If you are a regular reader of my posts, none of them are 'post-mortem'. They are always forward viewing!
Also, I am sure this is a constructive forum. Even knowing that you are in 'bla bla' stage (as quoted by you) is a very useful information for investors and traders ... Again I repeat - to all reader- it will be useful for all of us to read posts in a constructive manner , rather than with a pre-set criticial mentalility!!

Well friends , let's begin to read more constructively from today !!

Maybe my Dow Theory is weak but how is the theory forward looking is beyond my grasp. It only indicates what has happened and gives no timeline of events that are going to happen so what use is the information for investors let alone the traders?

Quote:

Originally Posted by rajivkhatlawala

Well friends , let's begin to read more constructively from today !!

Traders are a skeptic lot, something without nothing is a concept that doesnt go down very well with them.

kkseal · #8 21st June 2008, 06:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rajivkhatlawala

...
I do not intend to advertise in any case ...

Then stop mentioning your book/s & workshop/s in every post you make. What's hindsight & what's not is better left to the readers to judge.

rajivkhatlawala · #9 23rd June 2008, 10:28 AM

Friends,

Its a pity that none of you gave due importance to the analysis part . Sad .

I usually copy/ paste from my b*** and now if I put a post here for everyone's benefit , I will see to it that there is no mention of book/workshop etc ...

And yes - please be careful in using words like scamsters... It is easy for anyone to talk foul for someone but it takes courage to appreciate others ...

Even I don't like many of the discussions which occur on traderji but I never comment 'negatively'.

I repeat - don't be critical when it is not warranted. Let this forum increase it's stature by being constructive.

(I once again assure that there will be no form of references from my side which may look like advt - intentional or otherwise)

Thanks
CA Rajiv

uasish · #10 23rd June 2008, 01:45 PM

rajivkhatalawala,

The basic nature of this Forum is such that we learn & share from each other.There are few Professional Traders here & mostly believe in doing his/her own Analysis.
People with the Attitude pf "See i told You so' are viewed here with Skepticism,becoz till date 99.9 % of them since few years had something or other to Sell Us.
Plz contribute/share we will take you into our fold,otherwise many of us can Match & Stand Eye to Eye to all facets / Theories related with Capital Mkt.

Cheers.

Asish