Dollar-Rupee and Sensex !

rajivkhatlawala · #1 18th June 2008, 05:12 PM

(This is an extract from my own blog (article posted today))

A BREAKOUT OF RS 43 in DOLLAR RUPEE MAY NOT BE GOOD SIGN FOR THE STOCK MARKETS

Many of the readers of my blog would have noted my bullishness on the Dollar vis a vis the Rupee since it was sub-Rs 40 levels.

Many of you would have 'heard / read ' that financial markets are linked. In this context, the link between Sensex and the Indian Rupee (Dollar-rupee) is worth noting.

Inherently a strong dollar-rupee rate is not a good sign for the stock markets as there is a negative correlation between the two. The Current 'pause' in the upmove of the Dollar-rupee is worrying.

I expect that a break above Rs 43 may be triggered by a further down move in the Indian stock markets.

Moreover, the other major factor affecting the currency is the Crude Oil Prices which are refusing to go down (that is another instance of an inter-market linkage).

So, Stock market investors ...keep an eye on the Dollar-Rupee and Crude Oil prices !! (Whoever said investing was an easy game???)

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala

mahesh2007 · #2 19th June 2008, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rajivkhatlawala

(This is an extract from my own blog (article posted today))

A BREAKOUT OF RS 43 in DOLLAR RUPEE MAY NOT BE GOOD SIGN FOR THE STOCK MARKETS

Many of the readers of my blog would have noted my bullishness on the Dollar vis a vis the Rupee since it was sub-Rs 40 levels.

Many of you would have 'heard / read ' that financial markets are linked. In this context, the link between Sensex and the Indian Rupee (Dollar-rupee) is worth noting.

Inherently a strong dollar-rupee rate is not a good sign for the stock markets as there is a negative correlation between the two. The Current 'pause' in the upmove of the Dollar-rupee is worrying.

I expect that a break above Rs 43 may be triggered by a further down move in the Indian stock markets.

Moreover, the other major factor affecting the currency is the Crude Oil Prices which are refusing to go down (that is another instance of an inter-market linkage).

So, Stock market investors ...keep an eye on the Dollar-Rupee and Crude Oil prices !! (Whoever said investing was an easy game???)

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala

As far as crude is concerned,we are helpless.But RBI(guv) shall not easily let $/rs ratio to breach 43 level easily as it shall increase oil pool deficit.
They shall go on selling dollars or may go for appreciation of rs.(I know there is significant CAD & TD).
But I dont know if there is any another move.

One more thing,triangles are very unreliable patterns(in comparision with H&S etc),
u cant say whether there shall be breakdown or breakout.

rajivkhatlawala · #3 30th June 2008, 05:26 PM

On 18th June , had indicated a possibility of the dollar rupee breaking 43!

The Dollar Rupee gave the expected break out and touched a high today of 43.13 ! ... Currently (at 5pm) quoting at 43.05...

The charts are suggesting further upmove beyond 43.25-43.30 ; let's see whether this break out is sustained or not

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala

rajivkhatlawala · #4 1st July 2008, 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mahesh2007

As far as crude is concerned,we are helpless.But RBI(guv) shall not easily let $/rs ratio to breach 43 level easily as it shall increase oil pool deficit.
They shall go on selling dollars or may go for appreciation of rs.(I know there is significant CAD & TD).
But I dont know if there is any another move.

One more thing,triangles are very unreliable patterns(in comparision with H&S etc),
u cant say whether there shall be breakdown or breakout.

Well for yr information - - the current rate of $/Re is 43.39 (1.50 pm July 1, 2008)

CA Rajiv

huzefa.ranapurwala · #5 27th August 2008, 11:52 AM

dear team

what is the next 6 month trend for dollar - rupee, i have read one standard chartered report saying rupee will breach 45 by year end, can anybody throw light on this, since i need to invest in rupee and i am holding dollars at present, kindly reply

man4urheart · #6 28th August 2008, 05:04 PM

Latest Chart

- It is showing slight divergence in MACD.
- As shown "earlier support" is acting as resistance at 43.86 A firm close above same can only set target for 45.

Can we cross it? Time to watch!