Sector Rotation

oxusmorouz · #1 16th June 2008, 10:56 AM

Shall be posting the 3 best and worst performing sectors out of the following.
1) Aluminum
2) Auto
3) Auto Ancillary
4) PSU Banks
5) Pvt sector Banks
6) Cables
7) Cements
8) Civil construction
9) Computer Hardware
10) Real estate
11) Engineering
12) Fertilizers
13) FMCG
14) Hotels
15) Media
16) Pharma
17) Retail
18) Software
19) Sugar
20) Textiles
21) Oil Exploration
22) Power
23) Refineries
24) Shipping
25) Steel
26) Telecom
Calculation for the same is done based on equally weighted geometric return values. Each sector consists of between 5 and 16 stocks and a median of 1 stocks, with exception of aluminum is weighted based on only 2 stocks. The base date for the same is 1 Jan 2008 and the base value is 100.

There are some sectors such as petrochemicals, food processing etc which are still to be added and that shall be done soon.

The index values are "absolute" in nature and doesn't measure momentum. For example, if Software has fallen from 200 to 160 when Sugar has risen from 80 to 150 in the last week, software will still continue to be ranked above Sugar.

Suggestions, criticisms welcome.

Disclaimer : This is for education purposes only.This is only data and not a trading strategy. I shall not be responsible for your trading losses. In other words, if you trade based on this, I guarantee you will lose money. If you do make some gains based on this, then donate to traderji or give some amount to charity.

oxusmorouz · #2 16th June 2008, 11:00 AM

For the day ended : 13 June 2008

Best Performing since 1.1.2008:
1) Pharma - 100.2849
2) Software - 95.2413
3) Aluminum - 89.0643

Worst Performing since 1.1.2008:
1) Real Estate - 46.9464
2) Cables - 49.1626
3) Textiles - 49.9353

renu daga · #3 16th June 2008, 03:26 PM

i think u should change the data,,,date ,,make it from 2007...

2008 is something ,,from where we have seen bear phase till now
and taking 2007 in account will ,,balnce both bear / bull phase

think

renu

oxusmorouz · #4 16th June 2008, 04:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by renu daga

i think u should change the data,,,date ,,make it from 2007...

2008 is something ,,from where we have seen bear phase till now
and taking 2007 in account will ,,balnce both bear / bull phase

think

renu

That was my original base. Unfortunately, some stocks with high market cap were listed in 2007...so had to change the base date

uasish · #5 17th June 2008, 08:56 AM

Ajay,

Idea is Gr8,for me to get acclamiatize requires some time.
So now on 20th June we woul be reviewing whther Pharma isbelow 100.2849 or say Real estate down more than 46.9464.
The main trick may be after identifying sector & constituent companies/scrip IN that sector having high probability is to be longed & in weak sector the weakest are to be shorted (all in Fut / Option).
This can be stock/Index.
This Opposite positions can act as insurance.
Gr8,would it be too much if we want to get the glimses of numourous Strategy from a Teacher.

Asish

N.B. Here Joydeep's Inefficency may be identified & Locked.

uasish · #6 17th June 2008, 09:03 AM

Plz also show us how Primary Index like Niftys effect over the individual scrip can be neutralized to some extent.
How Alfha is persued & the strategies employed.

oilman5 · #7 18th June 2008, 12:48 AM

hi oxy...........wonderful thread.i feel the concept shall give good oppurtunity at present market for intermediate term trader.
btw....r u the trader......who made 60000........to 1000000.

Traderji · #8 18th June 2008, 07:44 AM

I think this would be an excellent piece of info and discussion in the current market condition.

renu daga · #9 18th June 2008, 11:48 AM

oxy,,,

chnage of data base will be good,,i dont know how u do that but would like to know,,,

through bar graphs???

anyways,,

reaosn,,tech / pharma all were down last year,,,,and so was auto scetor,,,
and now whne nifty is down these scetor dont have more potentiality to go down,,,,
pharma / tech all the running good even auto stcoks did well,,,

i think dta base if chnaged then 2007 is good,,,,hen we can analyse,,the left over fire in teh sector also..this the unit in %.... if tehn how come pharma is 100.28,,,,
we u have any screen shot pls post it

renu

RSI · #10 18th June 2008, 07:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oxusmorouz

Calculation for the same is done based on equally weighted geometric return values.

Can you explain it a little bit more for the benefit of some members like me who do not understand complex math? Is it percentage value or absolute value or is it something else?

Quote:

Originally Posted by oxusmorouz

Each sector consists of between 5 and 13 stocks and a median of 7 stocks, with exception of aluminum is weighted based on only 2 stocks. The base date for the same is 1 Jan 2008 and the base value is 100.

Can you elaborate as to how on what basis stock is selected and included in each sector and what is the weightage given to that stock in each sector?
Wanted to learn. It is fun to learn and experiment new things.
Thanks in advance and regards
R. S. Iyer