Sector Rotation

SMART_Trader · #**101** 3rd July 2008, 10:04 AM

deb99891,

The basic purpose is to identify and concentrate our investment on the right sectors and industries .Monitoring the 4%+ breakouts on industry wise on a day to day basis will serve this purpose.Stocks from the strong sectors will repeatedly breakout.Need not perfect the methods to a very high degree of perfection and sophistication.

If you go through the excel sheet you can find many Bank and reality stocks breaking out.These are heavily hammered stocks bouncing back. Others like fertilizer, software and sugar have clear catalysts.I don't think a computer can to do such an analysis at least in near future.My scheme is to concentrate on simple workable methods.

ARMHM · #**102** 3rd July 2008, 04:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SMART_Trader

deb99891,

The basic purpose is to identify and concentrate our investment on the right sectors and industries .Monitoring the 4%+ breakouts on industry wise on a day to day basis will serve this purpose.Stocks from the strong sectors will repeatedly breakout.Need not perfect the methods to a very high degree of perfection and sophistication.

If you go through the excel sheet you can find many Bank and reality stocks breaking out.These are heavily hammered stocks bouncing back. Others like fertilizer, software and sugar have clear catalysts.I don't think a computer can to do such an analysis at least in near future.My scheme is to concentrate on simple workable methods.

Banking and Realities Boncing back????? It very clear that they are sinking and the bottom is not in sight yet.

oxusmorouz · #**103** 3rd July 2008, 07:45 PM

For the day ended 3 July 2008:

Code:

Best Performing:
                                  Values       ROC (20 day)
1) Pharma                          87.8882     -05.0693    
2) Software                        76.9386     -12.6275
3) OilExp                          74.6287     -10.2790
 
Worst Performing:
1) Real Estate                    33.3887     -32.6148
2) Cables                         39.3602     -23.5619
3) Civil Construction             40.0315     -26.9719

Nifty                             63.8920     -16.0618

oxusmorouz · #**104** 3rd July 2008, 07:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by renu daga

oxy above the outperformer scetors,,,
as i already told u ,,,watch...pharma/ software/ sugar...did not at all particpate in ;ast phase of bull run,,,sugar/ pharma,,,was badly down,
oil was ok,,
third,,,,fmcg ,,, stcoks,,like dabur / lever,,,they moved in desired ratio / capacity,,,,say they moved in limited bands
as u said the speed of light ,,,theory...i say its teh theory of every action has equal and opposite reaction,,,,that is why banks/ reality/ ,,,are in this condition

It's not as bad as it may first appear. Arvind mills, which has fallen from Rs.150 to Rs.28 from 2005-2008 had actually gone up from Rs.7 in early 2002 (without adjusting for dividends). Although on a relative basis, it may look like a whack, anyone who held it from 2002 levels would still have returned the same as one who bought and held nifty during this time. JP Associates, which went up from 18 to 500, is currently quoting at 138, and has actually outperformed the nifty from time "n". Most stocks during the period from 2002-2008 have matched nifty returns, give or take a few percentage.

Quote:

Originally Posted by renu daga

now ,,can u highlight ur study,,,as how can,,we judge the performers beocming weak/ and worst one becoming strong

If an trader rotated his money in the top performing sector, they would have lost 13% of their capital, as compared with Nifty's 37%, take slippages and transaction costs. If an trader pulled out his funds the moment the top performing sector crossed below 100, he wouldn't have lost anything at all (slippages and transaction costs apart).

On saying that, I must admit that I'm as much a noob in this as you are. I couldn't find enough material which covered this, and there is no data for the same before 2008. I think beginner_av is best suited to answering the later part.

SMART_Trader · #**105** 3rd July 2008, 08:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ARMHM

Banking and Realities Boncing back????? It very clear that they are sinking and the bottom is not in sight yet.

Right. I was referring to this

oxusmorouz · #**106** 3rd July 2008, 08:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SMART_Trader

Right. I was referring to this

Nice way of explaining it Smart_Trader!

oxusmorouz · #**107** 4th July 2008, 09:04 PM

For the day ended 4 July 2008:

Code:

Best Performing:
                                  Values       ROC (20 day)
1) Pharma                          88.8966     -03.3517    
2) Software                        78.3019     -10.9568
3) Sugar                           75.2654     -01.1683
 
Worst Performing:
1) Real Estate                    34.7537     -28.4103
2) Cables                         39.6944     -23.4137
3) Civil Construction             41.7479     -23.4028

Nifty                             65.3609     -13.2201

oxusmorouz · #**108** 7th July 2008, 09:17 PM

For the day ended 7 July 2008:

Code:

Best Performing:
                                  Values       ROC (20 day)
1) Pharma                          88.7536     -03.0581    
2) Software                        79.8054     -05.4773
3) Sugar                           74.2083     +00.2430
 
Worst Performing:
1) Real Estate                    35.6164     -21.2208
2) Cables                         40.6200     -18.0083
3) Civil Construction             42.6274     -17.5104

Nifty                             65.5887     -10.4634

oxusmorouz · #**109** 8th July 2008, 09:06 PM

For the day ended 8 July 2008:

Code:

Best Performing:
                                  Values       ROC (20 day)
1) Pharma                          88.6783     -04.9029    
2) Software                        78.6495     -05.1762
3) Oil Exp                         73.7963     -06.9624
 
Worst Performing:
1) Real Estate                    35.2836     -19.5409
2) Cables                         40.8156     -15.0333
3) Civil Construction             42.0382     -16.8440

Nifty                             64.9149     -10.3656

renu daga · #**110** 8th July 2008, 10:18 PM

oxy,,

one thing i noticed..
in ur reports,,,simple,,,real estate is slowing down,,,its performnace in negtaive zone..trying to capitalize ur readings ,, but failing,,

secondly now we se ehow scetor of sugar performs,,,i think now it will turn neg

renu