The Hidden signal In The Recent Crash From 5299 To 4370

djsinha · #31 14th June 2008, 11:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vsangeeth

I THINK THIS IS THE RIGHT TIME TO SHARE MY VIEWS WITH U.IN MY BELIEF, I THINK SOME OF MY FINDINGS WILL BE ONE OF THE REASON TO CRASH THE MARKET 5299 TO 4370, AND MAY LEADS TO 3981-3966 IN SHORT TERM (ONE OR TWO MONTHS(MAX))

1) NIFTY HAD COMPLETED IT'S 5TH WAVE @ 6357 AND MADE A WAVE CORRECTION TO 4448 AND ALSO TAKEN WAVE B TO 5545 . AFTER THAT NIFTY MADE A BOTTOM AT 4468. IN MY VIEW THAT IS WAVE 1
OF WAVE C (5545-4468) . THAT IS 1077 POINTS . 2ND WAVE WILL MAY BE TAKEN (USING FIBONACCI THEORY) 38%,50%,62%,<76%>(78%) . USING FIBONACCI 2ND WAVE MAXIMUM WILL LAST AT 5286 AFTER THAT 3RD WAVE (DOWNSIDE MAY GO TO 3981-3900)(BELOW 4000)..............

2) IN MONTHLY CHART DRAW A TREND LINE TO NIFTY'S 1ST WAVE (2015) TO 3RD WAVE (3774) .THAT TREND LINE RESISTANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MAY 2008 IS 5298

3)THIS IS THE CLEAR SIGNAL FOR ALL PEOPLE TO CLEAR THEIR LONGS.
THAT IS.............................
WE CAN TAKE THAT AS ELLIOTT WAVE PATTERN AND WOLFE WAVE PATTERN..............................

i) ELLIOTT WAVE: 1ST WAVE IS 4468 TO 4718(253 POINTS) 2ND WAVE 4718 TO 4540 (178 POINTS ) 3RD WAVE IS 4540 TO 4971 (431 POINTS) 4TH WAVE IS 4971 TO 4628(343 POINTS) 5TH WAVE IS 4628 TO 5299 (671 POINTS) WAVE A 5299 TO 4914 (385 POINTS ) WAVE B 4914 TO 5167 (253 POINTS)THEN WAVE C . THAT'S HAPPENING NOW ....

WE CAN FIND TGT (AT WHICH POINT WE CAN SELL).....
4971(3RD WAVE) - 4718 (1ST WAVE ) = 253 POINTS ......
5TH WAVE TGT IS 253 + 4971 = 5224 . THIS IS THE SELL POINT....

WE CAN SEE THIS OVERLAPPING WAVES MANY TIMES IN NIFTY . THE MAIN THING TO THINK IS, IN OVERLAPPING WAVES, CORRECTION WILL ENDS ONLY BELOW WHICH POINT THE 1ST WAVE BEGINS...........

ii) WOLFE WAVE : WE GOT 1ST,2ND,3RD AND 4TH POINTS.THEN 5TH ?.TREND LINE POINT IS 5224 ......... NIFTY MADE HIGH AT 5299 TREND LINE BREAKEN.
AND ALSO BREAKEN LOWER CHANNEL BELOW 4800... "SURE SHORT"?
(WW PATTERN PROBLEMS.WECAN'T SEE DIRECTLY AT DAILY CHART . ( THAT'S THEY ARE (BIG SHARKES).I'VE ATTACHED A NIFTY CHART DRAWN WITH MS EXCEL SHOWING WW...
TREND LINES (CHANELS) NEVER CROSS ANYWHERE............

EXPERTS PLZ SHARE UR IDEAS

REGARDS
VSANGEETH

Good piece of work Vsangeeth. Elliott experts can only reflect on your piece of work. Regarding WW, I'm not sure. Looks like an iffy kind of situation.
Cheers
DJ

uasish · #32 15th June 2008, 12:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sanx

ha ha

, I thought , thats why we have TA to catch it before others !

Buddy TA works in Hindsight.

uasish · #33 15th June 2008, 12:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SMART_Trader

Thanks Kalyan .

Of course Having some shorting methods is not a bad idea for active traders.Yet to find a methodical way to short.

Checking the past and assuming the continuation is not the concept.That can be achieved by just buying 52 week highs or buying a stock which has gained the maximum in a time period.

Here I am trying to capture a slice of an established trend.. Most of the profitable traders are doing this. Only the tactics differs.Some buy pullbacks, some breakouts , some react and some anticipate.Stock selection is the key in my scheme of trading. My Focus is on selecting stocks that will continue to trend.

I have traded the system actively for the last 15 months. .I am well aware of the limitations of the system and know very well when it will work and when it will not.I am continuously monitoring the market internals to decide on this.It will tell me when to trade aggressively and when to move to cash.

Trading is all about probabilities and never certainties irrespective of the trading method. Need not perfect the system to the nth degree of sophistication and perfection.Simple methods will serve the purpose once you internalize the concept.

Excellent clear concept,equiped with a workable effective tool.Sorry i missed this thread.Earlier Sunil used to educate us on these type of approach.Plz educate us .

citrus · #34 15th June 2008, 06:35 AM

The descending triangle was very clear on the charts before the fall. Once the support of 4950 was broker (i.e. lower line of triangle) the fall was eminent, particularly considering the fact that 4950 became strong resistance and nifty failed to cross it in the last days of May.
Regards, citrus.

SMART_Trader · #35 15th June 2008, 02:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by uasish

Excellent clear concept,equiped with a workable effective tool.Sorry i missed this thread.Earlier Sunil used to educate us on these type of approach.Plz educate us .

Educate ? Whom ? Are you joking Asishda ? I am a person who have gone through almost all of your 6000 and odd posts in this forum and many times felt like touching your feet.

My approach to trading is little different.Let me explain.Kindly go through the internals data, I posted earlier.Just before correction,There were 105 shares that have gone up 50% and above in 20 trading days.413 stocks went up 25% or more.Market provided 413 opportunity to make 25 % or more on a universe of 800 and odd stocks(data excludes stocks quoting below 10 and volume less than 10000 per day). I am focusing on these kind of moves.Not at all interested in day trading for 2% edges.

Once you start studying these moves you can find many of these moves start with significant daily moves in price and volume front.That is why I trade SMART(Significant Move Analysis Related Trades).For me SMART is not a System but a concept and I am researching many methods on this concept.I am still on the learning curve.

I would like to trade for a living in future.But do not find any fun in sitting in front of the trading terminal instead of the office computer.Would like to trade EOD for a living.

Sorry to pollute your thread sangeeth.No more irrelevant postings here.
SMART thread is here

Significants moves in hindsight(SELMCL)

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Significant move which may or may not work(RAJESHEXPO)
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kkseal · #36 15th June 2008, 03:18 PM

SMART, pls don't consider my previous post as criticism of your system. I agree it's a good method on the whole & the best thing about it is that it can get better (without disrupting the existing framework).

Regards.

SMART_Trader · #37 15th June 2008, 07:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Linus

On the eod charts, the formation of a lower high-lower low pair - red spots, was a sell signal.

ss

Hi SS

Why cant you revive your"Market Internals" thread ? Now ,posting charts is not a problem .We would like to learn from the master.

Linus · #38 15th June 2008, 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SMART_Trader

Hi SS

Why cant you revive your"Market Internals" thread ? Now ,posting charts is not a problem .We would like to learn from the master.

Hi Smarty ! Thank you dear. Yes, I'll start posting again. But, me no master !, just a learner and frankly, your concept SMART was a real eye opener for me and helped me look at things with a different perspective .

Best regards,

s

s

traderwiz · #39 16th June 2008, 04:15 PM

yep.....you need a microscope to find these "hidden signals". funny thing is that they always make sense "after" the fact that it happened. try doing this live or in real time.....

uasish · #40 16th June 2008, 09:34 PM

Linus & Smart,

Plz continue this very educative process ,let us see whether this works quite effectively or not .The approach is Gr8.

Asish