The Rupee Dollar - a revisit

Dear Friends

A few days back I had indicated a likely upmove in the Dollar against the rupee. However, the exchange rate remained more or less sideways . It has now started showing the activity which I was expecting then.

Please view the chart attached (updated on Apr 23)
Chart Analysis
After taking support at the crucial 61.80 % retracement , the dollar / rupee has shown signs of revival as it touched a high of 40.07 today (Apr 23) ..

I presume a close above 40.10 should give a further impetus to the dollar and thereafter I would be targeting 40.80 / 41 in the short / medium term . . .

Friends it is time to dig out stocks which should benefit from a depreciation of the rupee ( i.e. a rise in dollar against rupee) . ..

Happy trading !!

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala

First sector comes in mind, which shall be benefitted by rupee depreciation is IT. But it shall also be affected by loomiong US recession,diminishing margins of BFSI etc.
At crude around 120$ if rupee depreciates against $, petro import shall become too dearer ; and trade account deficit shall be widening.
This may cause a negative sentiment in the market which further shall slow down inflows which shall result in volatile rs/$ ratio.

I presume all of you have watched the movement of Dollar ( agst Rupee) ... It is already at Rs 40.63 today (Wed Apr 30) . The s/t target indicated was Rs 40.80 ...

Also last couple of days , Tech stocks are showing good movements - partly on this account

CA Rajiv

Dear Friends ,

The Rupee Dollar has achieved my target of 41 ( almost - today's high 40.985)

Hope every one could benefit - directly or indirectly from this move !

Those of you analysing various charts - may want to also track the dollar !

Best Regards

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala

When ?? Not today certainly, it has been coming down.