Time Based Technicals

pspatel,

You have broached a nice aspect for finding a way for future Price predictibility through understanding of Cycle.In our Forum Karthik / Kalyan has studied this for long & most of us has tried in our way.There was a very important Thread of Ajay in past which can give you some insight.(search Oxy's thread).Oflate probably Jesse has found a novel way to tackle this.

Cycle is what even Nature follows.Many traders globally had tried to find a pattern in Price,yesterday reading Mark Joshi's article came to know that

Statistical arbitrage quant:=

"Statistical arbitrage quant, works on finding patterns in data to suggest automated trades. The techniques are quite different from those in derivatives pricing. This sort of job is most commonly found in hedge funds. The return on this type of position is highly volatile!"

So finding Pattern is an ongoing Process.
There are many findings by renowned people like JM Hurst's ,Hurst Cycle etc. etc.
As to decipher Cycle variant's influence on Price is difficult hence i always STRICTLY try to avoid 'Period' more than 1-2 in any Pricing Model development undertaken by me.
Any cycle's predominant in one Time frame is not always same with other Higher/Lower time frame.On & above the Cycle predominant NOW may change abruptly.
People have tried ADAPTIVE approach etc. etc.
Plz google search to get a Hang on this Cycle & its influence on Price.

Asish

Thanks uasish! Just trying to find " A Method in the Madness".

pspatel,
thanks for this good observation, if it helps check this link also <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_cycle>... if you have already done so.. please ignore...
if you could find some relation..do explain us...

hi
i have worked much on CYCLES,,,in teh begining i found it working okay and u can get teh wave of teh coming trend ,,but no sooner u find teh cycles changed,,and the direction too
u cant at all rely on thst and trade even for short term medium also

renu

The cell phone we use, is Sound waves (mostly Sine Waves) & they have found out a way to Discard the distortion(noise) of sound & they also amplify,so that a more clear signal is reproduced at our receiver end.
Many people consider half cycle of the Sine wave.
The simple 'Copy Paste' attitude is not going to help us ,your effort in this aspect is good & on this journey; your Realizations; some usefull findings ; may be shared with us.

Thanks uashish, renu daga & dhakkan. The keen interest this topic has generated makes me work a bit harder. In the mean time lets see till when this on-going moves which is in its 8th day continues....!!

The on-going move is now 9 days old & has managed to give close above the elusive 5000!!
Working on old data of 1995-1996 ( yet to be fine tuned) should be able to post something on it 2morrow!!

The on-going move is now 10 days old & has managed to give close above the elusive 5000 a second time!!
Lets see if the Power of 3 works for the bulls!
Working on old data of 1995-1996 ( yet to be fine tuned) Sorry not yet ready!!

The move is now 11 days old made another high & has managed to close above 5000.

DATA FROM 3rd NOV 1995 to 3rd FEB 1997

3rd Nov 1995 from Top of 1000.91
to Low of 822.54 on 29th Nov 1995 - 19 days
29th Nov 1995 from Low of 822.54
to Top of 927.6 on 28th Dec 1995 - 21 days ( Top to Top 39 days )
28th Dec 1995 from Top of 927.6
to Low of 813.12 on 29th Jan 1996 - 21 days ( Low to Low 42 days)
29th Jan 1996 from Low of 813.12
to Top of 1067.49 on 14th Feb 1996 - 12 days ( Top to Top 34 days )
14th Feb 1996 from Top of 1067.49
to Low of 945.07 on 19th Mar 1996 - 23 days ( Low to Low 35 days)
19th Mar 1996 from Low of 945.07
to Top of 1160.16 on 25th Apr 1996 - 25 days ( Top to Top 48 days )
25th Apr 1996 from Top of 1160.16
to Low of 1046.95 on 28th May 1996 - 23 days ( Low to Low 49 days)
28th May 1996 from Low of 1046.95
to Top of 1203.11 on 17th Jun 1996 - 14 days ( Top to Top 38 days )
17th Jun 1996 from Top of 1203.11
to Low of 1056 on 4th Jul 1996 - 13 days ( Low to Low 29 days)
4th Jul 1996 from Low of 1056
to Top of 1127.08 on 23rd Jul 1996 - 12 days ( Top to Top 26 days )
23rd Jul 1996 from Top of 1127.08
to Low of 999.03 on 30th Jul 1996 - 05 days ( Low to Low 18 days)
30th Jul 1996 from Low of 999.03
to Top of 1054.29 on 8th Aug 1996 - 07 days ( Top to Top 13 days )
8th Aug 1996 from Top of 1054.29
to Low of 968.76 on 20th Aug 1996 - 07 days ( Low to Low 15 days)
20th Aug 1996 from Low of 968.76
to Top of 1046.51 on 3rd Sep 1996 - 10 days ( Top to Top 18 days )
3rd Sep 1996 from Top of 1046.51
to Low of 959.65 on 16th Sep 1996 - 09 days ( Low to Low 20 days)
16th Sep 1996 from Low of 959.65
to Top of 1001.25 on 19th Sep 1996 - 03 days ( Top to Top 13 days )
19th Sep 1996 from Top of 1001.25
to Low of 850.52 on 8th Oct 1996 - 12 days ( Low to Low 16 days)
8th Oct 1996 from Low of 850.52
to Top of 956.45 on 24th Oct 1996 - 11 days ( Top to Top 24 days )
24th Oct 1996 from Top of 956.45
to Low of 851.77 on 6th Nov 1996 - 09 days ( Low to Low 21 days)
6th Nov 1996 from Low of 851.77
to Top of 905.61 on 19th Nov 1996 - 09 days ( Top to Top 19 days )
19th Nov 1996 from Top of 905.61
to Low of 775.43 on 4th Dec 1996 - 11 days ( Low to Low 21 days)
4th Dec 1996 from Low of 775.43
to Top of 1085.75 on 16th Jan 1997 - 28 days ( Top to Top 40 days )
16th Jan 1997 from Top of 1085.75
to Low of 944.20 on 3rd Feb 1997 - 11 days ( Low to Low 40 days)

My post of 14th April,08 :
" From Low of 4448.5 of 22nd Jan, 08 to
Top of 5506.6 of 5th Feb, 08 – 10 days (21 days Top to Top)
From Top of 5506.6 of 5th Feb, 08 to
Low of 4468.55 of 18th Mar, 08 - 29 days (40 days Low to Low)
From Low of 4468.55 of 18th Mar, 08 to
Top of 4970.8 of 28th Mar, 08 – 6 days ( 36 days Top to Top)
From Top of 4970.8 of 28th Mar, 08 to
Ongoing Low of 4632.7 of 4th Apr, 08 – 6 days ( 12 days Low to Low )
Has a Low to High move begun?
What are your conclusions? Any comments??"

The Low to High move had begun.

Now ,
From Low of 4632.7 of 4th April,08 to
Top of 5083.5 of 23rd Apr, 08 - 12 days ( 14 days Top to Top)