TechViews

karthikmarar · #51 15th April 2008, 01:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by uasish

The chart's bottom Lowest pane looks more like Terminal nodes of Classification Tree.

What is that.

Do you mean the Dots and the arrows at the bottom. That is just a part of my custom Indicator I am working on which I call Decision Support system .. DSS in short ....

If proven worthwhile will be psoted in the forum ...

reagrds

Karthik

vvvv · #52 15th April 2008, 03:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by karthikmarar

RPL - A stock to watch ... any views

sorry to intrude among such knowledgable people.
RPL 50% fibonacci barrier at 182.75
last high = 183.35
last close = 182.05
so will inititae a breakout buy above 182.75 for next targe of 200.76

daily macd buy signal was given on 27/3/08..so maybe little late now.
pls correct me if im wrong

uasish · #53 15th April 2008, 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by karthikmarar

Do you mean the Dots and the arrows at the bottom. That is just a part of my custom Indicator I am working on which I call Decision Support system .. DSS in short ....

If proven worthwhile will be psoted in the forum ...

reagrds

Karthik

Thks ,so more of confirmatory category.

satya_pinku2003 · #54 15th April 2008, 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saint

Looking to start a new uptrend,a break and close above previous pivot highs on the daily charts and weekly charts.

But have to wait and watch,if not already in,whether a gap down tomorrow will start off with price back within that triangle,then all this work by RPL has come undone........Else,looking good.

Saint

NOw RPL above pivots ???

Regards
Satya

Saint · #55 15th April 2008, 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by satya_pinku2003

NOw RPL above pivots ???

Regards
Satya

yes Satya....

Saint

jamit_05 · #56 15th April 2008, 10:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saint

Looking to start a new uptrend,a break and close above previous pivot highs on the daily charts and weekly charts.

But have to wait and watch,if not already in,whether a gap down tomorrow will start off with price back within that triangle,then all this work by RPL has come undone........Else,looking good.

Saint

Okay this is a super example. Wanted to run this through you.

Now we know RPL has Nice Consolidation after a good fall. So it has potential to go up well.

When the Daily prices are near its support one switches to hourly and enters for getting a tigher stop. So enter at break of a pivot high preceeded by a higher pivot low and if the breakout seems unlikely when the stock reaches the other end... book some profits. Or as indicated by this chart... Trails Away. Pls refer to attachment.

Amit.

PS: If such a method seems like a figment feel free to chastise.

satya_pinku2003 · #57 16th April 2008, 09:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by karthikmarar

Hi friends

I am starting this thread to share some technical views on stocks. My plan was to post these on my blog in the forum. Now I realize that the Blogs are one of the most neglected sections of the forum. In order to learn and improve we need feedbacks on our analysis and thoughts from the experts which was not forthcoming from the Blog entries. So I thought of starting a thread, which has more visibility and hence some comments and feedbacks. Of course the idea is not to restrict to my posts only, others too are encouraged to post their own charts and views.

As most of you know my perspective is restricted positional trades since that is what I do.

So without much ado let me set the ball rolling. The first chart is a view on the nifty. The Nifty seems to form a falling wedge. Wedges are one of the most difficult patterns to trade. Also there are many different opinions on wedges. In general a falling wedge can be a continuation or a reversal pattern. But a falling wedge after a long up trend is most likely to be Bullish. Also any breakout would have to with a good volume expansion.
Today the nifty retracted from the top wedge line which would around 4780. If my perspective is right and the nifty does not breakout of the wedge soon we may see the nifty slipping down to 4200 levels…the lower wedge line…
My knowledge on patterns is rather rudimentary. It would be nice if other chart experts like Ashish (Aca Trader) add their comments

Regards

Karthik

Sir break out yesterday

Regards
Satya

aca_trader · #58 16th April 2008, 04:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RSI

Ashish,
I am answering your post in a hurry. For the moment, I could not recollect any other example other than a chart posted by another member.

Next paragraph is to the member whose chart I am attaching herewith this post.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Sir,
My advance apologies to the member who has posted this chart. I hate to point the mistakes of some one else. May be, I myself is wrong and you are right. Whatever it may be, please please do not misunderstand me. If I am wrong, correct me. Anyway, it is not my intention either to belittle you or to doubt your analytical capacity. I myself commit so many mistakes when I am in a hurry. I have committed mistakes and I have been commiting it and I have no hope that today's mistake will be the last one in my life. For that matter, you can refer to my post to Karthik in this thread. Forgive me for posting this chart with this comments. All this is for a good learning purpose. Take in the right spirit.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
See the chart of RNRL. One can easily come to the conclusion that is written on the chart. So many of us will be exploring the opportunity to go short, if it is viewed as descending triangle as viewed by the member here. But consider the following points
1. See the daily candle on 22/01/2008 and candles leading to it from 09/01/2008. Give particular attention to candles starting from 18/01/2008. Seller had made merry up to 22/01/2008, that day included.

2. Look what happened thereafter. Next pivot high on daily chart is on 07/02/2008. You can regard the rally leading upto it (i.e. from 22/01/08 to 07/02/2008) as short covering rally.

3. Pay close attention to what happened next. How price has moved? Does it show that seller are still having vigour? No it does not. Does it show that buyers have come back with strength. Again answer is no.

4. But the point is, look how many days it has taken to move from Rs. 169/- (on 07/02/08) to near about Rs. 100/- (today, i.e. on 11/04/2008).

5. Pay attention to the movement from the low pivot formed on 13/02/2008 (at Rs. 110.20/-) up to today. See how the daily price range narrowed and how the volume has been decreasing on downdays and increasing on the updays.

6. When you take all these points together, message conveyed is that sellers are tired and buyers and recouping their lost breath.

7. In such a situation, I will think several times before going short. More often than not, I will not go short, even if descending triangle is broken on the downside. Because, possibility is that it may be a false breakout and I may be stopped out. Of course, price range and volume just before the breakout and at the time of break out will have the final say.

8. This is what I meant in my earlier post. It happens (it happened to me also I am not claiming that I am immune to commiting errors). Why it happened? Because, we are looking only at the descending triangle ignoring the events that are leading to it.

I hope this clarifies your doubts.

Again my sincere apologies to the member who has posted the RNRL chart (which I have copied here) in some other thread.
Thanks and regards
R. S. Iyer

This kind of analysis may be useful for cherry picking signals if there are more than one choices. However, IMHO, such kind of detailed analysis has several drawbacks also. Have seen from close quarters the problem of trading with analysis from all the possible angles.

1. The analysis becomes too subjective. For example, how can we assume if a rally was due to short-covering or due to buying interest or due to a mix of both?

2. Our entry and exits are too late if we wait for several confirmations.

3. Sometimes we may develop what is called "Paralysis of analysis". Holds us from pulling the trigger.

4. In extended runs, we may loose all the opportunities money and if you are a trend follower, that is when the big money comes. For example, this analysis says not to go short if the Descending Triangle gives a breakout on the down side but do not markets fall even in oversold area? What about selling on pullback, will that justify taking position? What if a number of longs start unwinidng their positions if a crucial support level is breached on the down side?

While I agree that it's the events that lead to chart formation are more important than the chart formations themselves, the charts are a way to look into what is going on in a nut-shell. It's always better to act upon that nut-shell vision instead of trying to do inside it. To a certain extent, our productivity will arise and then will start diminishing. If we can find out that optimum level, that will be the best otherwise sticking to the window vision will serve us better than going in the field.

Regards,
--Ashish

aca_trader · #59 16th April 2008, 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RSI

Asish,
Only time will tell whether my analysis is right or the observation and analysis of the member who has posted RNRL chart is right. I may be wrong also. But please ponder over the points highlighted by me. See whether you can draw any other conclusion than the one arrived at by me when all of them are considered. Also see whether you can have a different view point. I have not done multi timeframe analysis as it is not relevant to the point we are discussing here. Just explore whether you can analyse the daily chart of RNRL in a different manner. Because, our member has analysed only daily chart and has come up with the descending triangle. That is why I have restricted my comments imposing limitations upon myself that only daily chart is available to me.
Thanks and regards
R. S. Iyer

The descending triangle mentioned has lot of white space and is much prone to failure.

My view is attached. (I have not updated it for today's action.)

RSI · #60 16th April 2008, 06:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aca_trader

This kind of analysis may be useful for cherry picking signals if there are more than one choices. However, IMHO, such kind of detailed analysis has several drawbacks also. Have seen from close quarters the problem of trading with analysis from all the possible angles.

1. The analysis becomes too subjective. For example, how can we assume if a rally was due to short-covering or due to buying interest or due to a mix of both?

2. Our entry and exits are too late if we wait for several confirmations.

3. Sometimes we may develop what is called "Paralysis of analysis". Holds us from pulling the trigger.

4. In extended runs, we may loose all the opportunities money and if you are a trend follower, that is when the big money comes. For example, this analysis says not to go short if the Descending Triangle gives a breakout on the down side but do not markets fall even in oversold area? What about selling on pullback, will that justify taking position? What if a number of longs start unwinidng their positions if a crucial support level is breached on the down side?

While I agree that it's the events that lead to chart formation are more important than the chart formations themselves, the charts are a way to look into what is going on in a nut-shell. It's always better to act upon that nut-shell vision instead of trying to do inside it. To a certain extent, our productivity will arise and then will start diminishing. If we can find out that optimum level, that will be the best otherwise sticking to the window vision will serve us better than going in the field.

Regards,
--Ashish

Asish,
Perhaps you have missed my next post after the analysis post. There I have stated that I have imposed several limitations upon myself while doing that analysis as I am quoting the chart posted by another member so as to do justice to him also. Further, my main intention in the analysis post was to give an explanation with an example to your query. My intention was to point out the crucial difference between observing patterns by a novice and an experienced trader. That was in the first post, even before analysis post. Point there was whether the pattern noted by the member was correct in the context of that chart.

What I have been trying to do in this forum is to bring all possible information which I gather from different sources to the attention of members here. Whenever I say something which is not mine, I clearly indicate it in my post. Some of these ideas may be quite new. For example, the hint that I gave here that one should concentrate on the events that preceded the pattern. If one misses that, one may be prone to errors. One may not find this information in any book.

Again I do not wish to start another round of controversy as to whether system trading is better than descritionary trading. A signal with which I am comfortable may not suit another person. Again, I may not take every trade that comes on my way. I may not be day trader also. What I am trying to say is that several persons can come up with several different ideas upon the same chart.

As far I am concerned, I am concentrating on price-volume-time. That keeps me always in the centre of action. In my real trading, I have not faced the problem of "analysis paralysis" as suggested by you by following price-volume-time. Again, as I said what is suitable method to me (depending upon my personality and trading style) may not be compatible to another person.

Answering question no. 4 specifically, if a descending triangle like the one we are referring here breaks on the downside and if I have not gone short on the breakdown, then there is another opportunity. I can short it on the pullback to the base of the descending triangle. By that time, I will get enough hint about the strength of that breakdown move and its likely target. As I said, I view this slight delay as cost of insurance. Well, in some very rare cases this breakdown may be very severe and the pull back may be nowhere near to the base of the triangle. I may miss such rare trades. But I never repent upon a trade which I have not taken at all. I want to take only those trades, where I am seeing huge profit when I consider the risk I am intending to take. I am not running after each and every trade. As I said all these will be depending upon your personality and trading style. There are thousands of stocks being traded on BSE and NSE and I will never ever be able to trade all of them at any point of time. So why can't I take only those best trades?

I sincerely hope this helps.
Thanks and regards
R. S. Iyer