The Rupee Dollar - a technical perspective

The Rupee Dollar - a technical perspective

( Please see the attached chart of the Dollar/Rupee)

After remaining below Rs. 40 levels for about six months (from Sept 07 to Feb 08), the Dollar/ Rupee rate touched Rs 40.70 and has since retraced 61.80% of its move ( 61.80% is a Fibonacci retracement level)

Also after it took support at Rs 39 thrice during the period Sept 07 to Feb 08 , the technical pattern visible was of a 'rounding bottom'- which is a reversal pattern. In this case it reverses the down trend in the Dollar against the rupee.

The current technical structure is in favor of the dollar rising further against the rupee ( i.e. rupee depreciating further).

My technical target over a period of the next few months would be Rs 41.60-41.90 per dollar.

The current price of dollar is Rs 40.02 and I expect the up move to restart once it breaks the resistance level of Rs 40.15 in coming days.

Probably those of you investing in stocks can take a cue from this and dig out stocks which can benefit from a depreciation in the Rupee!!

Happy Trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala

Thanks for the post. I had a query.
Are only IT stocks affected with the apreciation of rupee??? Or are there any other sectors too??

rupee appreciation means "we are increasing price of goods/services, if foreigners want to buy anything from us", so it effects everything goods and services and everything we want to sell to foreigners. vice versa rupee depreciation means we are decreasing the price on goods and services

It has been playing hide and seek with 83 level for nearly a month now.