Breakout trading vs. Coin toss

biyasc · #11 2nd April 2008, 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by beginner_av

20% will not know or bother to know how many times it worked. so will not be able to utilize the statistics.

20% will not know under what broad mkt conditions and other factors the BOs work. So most of the times they would be faded.

20% will know everything, but would not know how to put it in a system

20% will know everything and put it in a system and then override it/not act on it

and final 20% would wait and wait and see no breakout happening, so would yawn, chat, get up and watch some tv, go out and comeback and see that the breakout has happened and they have missed it.

unfortunately no more 20% left

great logic. thanks av.

biyasc · #12 2nd April 2008, 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by arm

I am not a very experienced trader or a losing trader. However I dont toss a coin either.

The answer to the question is there in the question itself. If we backtest the coin toss method with past data you will have a losing strategy. So which one is better to follow, a stategy with which one is sure to lose, or one which at least in theory works.

I am not too sure about the 95%, but my experience tells me that if one is losing in actual trade with a proven winning strategy, then the person is letting his/her emotions take part in the trading decisions. Keeping out emotions is not very easy as it means going against powerful instincts (Greed / Fear). That could be the difference between the 95% and the 5%.

you are right sir.

THETRADER · #13 2nd April 2008, 05:59 PM

Biyasc, You have correctly described how to use TA, maybe not in so many words, in the beginning. And then, confused it from
"but i heard the statistic that "95% traders are loosers". so as per the statistics there should be lots of losing traders even with this wining setup. but why?" ...
Lots of assumptions in that statement, 95% traders, and, the assumption that all traders are following the above described TA- is it right?
You've done your homework well, and, you take the trade with a reasonable success rate, and, more importantly you've defined when to exit! If it worked most of the time, it is more likely to work most of the time - that's about the only thing that can be, or being assumed correctly in favor of trading!

THETRADER · #14 2nd April 2008, 06:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by beginner_av

20% will not know or bother to know how many times it worked. so will not be able to utilize the statistics.

20% will not know under what broad mkt conditions and other factors the BOs work. So most of the times they would be faded.

20% will know everything, but would not know how to put it in a system

20% will know everything and put it in a system and then override it/not act on it

and final 20% would wait and wait and see no breakout happening, so would yawn, chat, get up and watch some tv, go out and comeback and see that the breakout has happened and they have missed it.

unfortunately no more 20% left

Good info beginner_av!
That's something every trader should read - helps you to train yourself for trading!

sanx · #15 2nd April 2008, 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by uasish

biyas,

The break out system works in Mkt.Rather this is one of my Best methology till date,it gives very good return when Mkt is in (+)ve bias.I some time share my trades with another traderji member of Kolkata,both of us have earned good money on this since Oct'07.We can discuss this in the Meet,here Entry are to be made with Stop Loss method well in advance otherwise the order will jump & Exit is few mins later with Mkt order.
With mulitlpe contracts the earning is good.Plz pursue this for few points SURE to gain.

Asish

Asish , can we have the example here . I asked for a sample trading system , how does it work ? but did not get any answers .

You dont have to reveal your system , but can you give insights how a trading system should be ?

Abviously , I assume it would just give indications like buy now , sell now , but it will buy and sell on behalf of you , or does it ?

Thanks

The Following User Says Thank You to THETRADER For This Useful Post:
biyasc (21st August 2008)