Simple analysis

Chintan's post prompted me to make this post. Instead of sending him a private message I thought let me post it here itself for the benefit of all.

At any given point of time a stock can be in one of the three trends described herebelow.
1. Uptrend. i.e. stock is making higher highs and higher lows
2. Downtrend. i.e. stock is making lower highs and lower lows
3. Sideways movement. i.e. when stock is not making higher highs and higher lows or lower highs and lower lows. In simple terms, while looking at the chart you will not find any direction to the movement either higher or lower.

Chintan has noted the sideways movement and seems to be frustrated with it. But even in sideways movement also, you can see some days higher highs higher lows movement and lower highs and lower lows movements. More about this later when we reach that stage.

ok RSi... i will keep this in mind.. and no deviation frm my part .. tht i am asuring u.


keep posting

warm regards

chintan

Chintan,
Thanks for the kind cooperation
Regards
RS Iyer

Today DLF tested the RBS line mentioned in my daily chart and bounced from there. Please see the attached word file for commentary. Now it appears that it heading towards the resistance line (upper trendline drawn in triangle in the chart posted last time) and if it breaks from there with good volume, next target would be somewhere near Rs. 900/- Let us see what happens. Thanks and regards
R. S. Iyer

hi rsi,

its very nice to read your posts. Much informative and am tracking dlf daily and your comments. you are doing a good job and am learning Price with Volume from you. And keep updating and we will all continue learning from it.

Thanks.

ramash

One observation I have made is as follows:

Although Iyer is not drawing any indicators or other studies, I have just out of curiosity drawn Fibo levels. And this is what I observed. See chart enclosed.

1) On 10-8-07 DLF had a low of 490 (Point A in chart).

2) On 31-10-07 it reached a high of 999 (Point B).

3) 22-11-07 it had a low of 800 (Point C)
Between B and C there is no high grater than B.
The point C is very close to 38.2% of AB (38.2% is 804.56)

4) Then the price moved up to high of 1050 (Point D) on 13-12-07 and fell down to 925 (Point E) on 17-12-07. This point E happens to be 50% of CD which is also 925.

5) Then it moved up to a high of 1225 (Point F) on 15-1-08. If we ignore the abnormal low on 22-11-08 when there was a drastic overall fall, the next low is 754 on 11-2-08 Point G). This is close to 161.8% lower level with respect to EF (168.2% lower w.r.t EF is 739.6).

6) Thereafter it reached a high of 898.4 (Point H) on 18-2-08 and fell to a low of 801 (Point I) today i.e. 21-2-08. This fall is nearly 61.8% of GH. (61.8% of GH is 809.16).

7) From 30-1-08 onwards the price is oscillating between 895 and 785 (approximate Resistance and Support levels).

8) If the price rises from now the first barrier as Iyer has mentioned would be 895. If this barrier is overcome then the next Fibo levels are : 898.4 (100% of GH), 924.9 (127.2% of GH), 958.6 (161.8%) and 1056 (261.8%).

I am just jotting down what I observed. I am no expert on Fibo levels or Waves. Other experts on the subjects may throw some light on this.

Mean while, as Iyer said, let us wait and watch.

Regards

-Anant

Mere looking/staring at chart will not make you any wiser. Think while you are looking at the chart. Observe it carefully. More importantly ask questions and try to answer it and try to get answers. Ask ask and ask. Learn and learn. Otherwise you will not make any progress.

Hi Ramash
Thanks for the positive feedback.

Hi Anant,
Interesting analysis. This is quite different from what I have done.

Remember
1. Strength comes in downbars.
2. Weekness comes in upbars.

How about taking a small examination over the weekend? See the attached word file.