Simple analysis

RSI · #11 20th February 2008, 02:49 PM

Chintan's post prompted me to make this post. Instead of sending him a private message I thought let me post it here itself for the benefit of all.

At any given point of time a stock can be in one of the three trends described herebelow.
1. Uptrend. i.e. stock is making higher highs and higher lows
2. Downtrend. i.e. stock is making lower highs and lower lows
3. Sideways movement. i.e. when stock is not making higher highs and higher lows or lower highs and lower lows. In simple terms, while looking at the chart you will not find any direction to the movement either higher or lower.

Chintan has noted the sideways movement and seems to be frustrated with it. But even in sideways movement also, you can see some days higher highs higher lows movement and lower highs and lower lows movements. More about this later when we reach that stage.

chintan786 · #12 20th February 2008, 04:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RSI

Chintan,
Usually what happens is that once some one posts charts of different stocks and comments are made. There after there is absolutely no follow up. We forget about it after a few hours or may be a few days. Ananlysis once made is not a rule written on stone. We have to change it as the market dictates us. If I have to change my analysis earlier made, then I will have come up with reasons as to why I am changing my views. Only then we understand the nitty gritty of analysis. That is why I took up one randum chart and continuing with it. If I start posting comments upon many charts, I will not be able to keep track of them and soon this thread will loose its direction and the purpose for which it has been started. I am sending a private message to you with regard to the chart posted by you. Hope you will understand my difficulties. Thanks for showing interest in this thread. Hope you will continue to read on later posts as well. If you have any doubts with regard to any of the points discussed here, do not hesitate to ask it. I shall try my level best to answer it. All I want to say is let us not deviate from the purpose for which we have started this thread.

ok RSi... i will keep this in mind.. and no deviation frm my part .. tht i am asuring u.

keep posting

warm regards

chintan

RSI · #13 20th February 2008, 04:53 PM

Chintan,
Thanks for the kind cooperation
Regards
RS Iyer

RSI · #14 21st February 2008, 07:08 PM

Today DLF tested the RBS line mentioned in my daily chart and bounced from there. Please see the attached word file for commentary. Now it appears that it heading towards the resistance line (upper trendline drawn in triangle in the chart posted last time) and if it breaks from there with good volume, next target would be somewhere near Rs. 900/- Let us see what happens. Thanks and regards
R. S. Iyer

ramash · #15 21st February 2008, 09:54 PM

hi rsi,

its very nice to read your posts. Much informative and am tracking dlf daily and your comments. you are doing a good job and am learning Price with Volume from you. And keep updating and we will all continue learning from it.

Thanks.

ramash

asnavale · #16 21st February 2008, 11:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RSI

Today DLF tested the RBS line mentioned in my daily chart and bounced from there. Please see the attached word file for commentary. Now it appears that it heading towards the resistance line (upper trendline drawn in triangle in the chart posted last time) and if it breaks from there with good volume, next target would be somewhere near Rs. 900/- Let us see what happens. Thanks and regards
R. S. Iyer

One observation I have made is as follows:

Although Iyer is not drawing any indicators or other studies, I have just out of curiosity drawn Fibo levels. And this is what I observed. See chart enclosed.

1) On 10-8-07 DLF had a low of 490 (Point A in chart).

2) On 31-10-07 it reached a high of 999 (Point B).

3) 22-11-07 it had a low of 800 (Point C)
Between B and C there is no high grater than B.
The point C is very close to 38.2% of AB (38.2% is 804.56)

4) Then the price moved up to high of 1050 (Point D) on 13-12-07 and fell down to 925 (Point E) on 17-12-07. This point E happens to be 50% of CD which is also 925.

5) Then it moved up to a high of 1225 (Point F) on 15-1-08. If we ignore the abnormal low on 22-11-08 when there was a drastic overall fall, the next low is 754 on 11-2-08 Point G). This is close to 161.8% lower level with respect to EF (168.2% lower w.r.t EF is 739.6).

6) Thereafter it reached a high of 898.4 (Point H) on 18-2-08 and fell to a low of 801 (Point I) today i.e. 21-2-08. This fall is nearly 61.8% of GH. (61.8% of GH is 809.16).

7) From 30-1-08 onwards the price is oscillating between 895 and 785 (approximate Resistance and Support levels).

8) If the price rises from now the first barrier as Iyer has mentioned would be 895. If this barrier is overcome then the next Fibo levels are : 898.4 (100% of GH), 924.9 (127.2% of GH), 958.6 (161.8%) and 1056 (261.8%).

I am just jotting down what I observed. I am no expert on Fibo levels or Waves. Other experts on the subjects may throw some light on this.

Mean while, as Iyer said, let us wait and watch.

Regards

-Anant

RSI · #17 23rd February 2008, 12:46 PM

Mere looking/staring at chart will not make you any wiser. Think while you are looking at the chart. Observe it carefully. More importantly ask questions and try to answer it and try to get answers. Ask ask and ask. Learn and learn. Otherwise you will not make any progress.

RSI · #18 23rd February 2008, 12:48 PM

Hi Ramash
Thanks for the positive feedback.

Hi Anant,
Interesting analysis. This is quite different from what I have done.

RSI · #19 23rd February 2008, 12:49 PM

Remember
1. Strength comes in downbars.
2. Weekness comes in upbars.

RSI · #20 23rd February 2008, 12:51 PM

How about taking a small examination over the weekend? See the attached word file.