Are we in a Bear Market? Robert Prechter Says Yes.

marcus · #1 10th February 2008, 02:42 AM

First up .....I trade what I see I don't predict if its up i tade up till it stops or turns down ... if its down i trade down till it stops or turns up .... if i dont know the direction I'm out or with options .... so its not my opinion its the opinion of arguably the best Elliotician on the planet....

Quote:

Robert Prechter, founder of Elliott Wave International, has some unique charts that he uses to analyze the market. He correctly predicted the 1987 crash so when he speaks, people listen. It is interesting to see how he compares that time to the present. It doesn't look good!

Now here's the video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjS60TaD_J8

Now, combine that video with the weekly charts of all three major indices. You have a head and shoulders top on all three. Furthermore, a head and shoulders top is one of the most reliable chart patterns known to technical analysts!

It looks like we are in for a bumpy ride!

uasish · #2 10th February 2008, 08:40 AM

marcus,

Our Saint ,who trades US mkt has already shown a chart of DoW in his thread.You are absolutely right ,when we trade we just look at the present bar & the bar that is forming.

Asish

oxusmorouz · #3 10th February 2008, 11:19 AM

Did someone mention head and shoulders?

Code:

http://www1.uni-hamburg.de/IWK/shoulder.pdf

From Wikipedia:

Quote:

While Prechter has his admirers, he has been criticised by media and pundits. For example, the Wall Street Journal ran a page one article in August 1993 with the headline, "Robert Prechter sees his 3600 on the Dow--But 6 years late," in reference to Prechter's 1987 forecast for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.[15] Technical analyst David Aronson wrote:

The Elliott Wave Principle, as popularly practiced, is not a legitimate theory, but a story, and a compelling one that is eloquently told by Robert Prechter. The account is especially persuasive because EWP has the seemingly remarkable ability to fit any segment of market history down to its most minute fluctuations. I contend this is made possible by the method's loosely defined rules and the ability to postulate a large number of nested waves of varying magnitude. This gives the Elliott analyst the same freedom and flexibility that allowed pre-Copernican astronomers to explain all observed planet movements even though their underlying theory of an Earth-centered universe was wrong.[16]

Recently, Prechter has missed the latest portions of the rally in gold and oil. In July 2006 he asserted that gold had reached its peak and that oil, then around $70 bbl, also had peaked in price. His analysis was clearly flawed, as oil in early January 2008 reached $100 bbl and gold was at $866/ounce

sunil saranjame · #4 10th February 2008, 02:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oxusmorouz

Did someone mention head and shoulders?

Code:

http://www1.uni-hamburg.de/IWK/shoulder.pdf

From Wikipedia:

Good work Oxy. I will put that link on my blog. Yes, we really have to do some serious work on patterns.

Thanks,

s

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