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| Discuss When Technicals signal a Bear ? at the Technical Analysis within the Traderji.com - Discussion forum for Stocks Commodities & Forex; From technical perspective, 1) We are in Bear market is when prices drop by more ... |
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#61
26th July 2008, 02:18 AM
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Re: When Technicals signal a Bear ?
From technical perspective,
1) We are in Bear market is when prices drop by more then 20% from their peak. 2) Price is below 200 dma 3) Series of lower high and lower lows on Monthly chart 4) Size of bullish rallyies are limited whereas size of downward fall is extended. 5) Chart indicates the Elliot Wave 5 is formed in downward direction (one will be never be sure till EW 3 in downward direction as that could be 3 W correction in bull market but when wave 4 is formed it breaches the low of Wave 3, then we are in wave 5 of bear market. Quite possibly we will see this in longer timeframes as well. All these signals are delayed be months so they are good for academic purpose. For trading purpose, I would rather relay on trendline break, Moving Average line break, supports becoming resistence etc are way ahead in time. Happy Trading. 
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renu daga (27th October 2008) | ||
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#62
27th October 2008, 07:06 PM
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Re: When Technicals signal a Bear ?
did I missed something..........?
 Quote:
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#63
13th November 2008, 03:14 PM
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Re: When Technicals signal a Bear ?
So now when technicals signal a bull... give your ideas so we are ready by then, 2 months to fill your views, give me technical reasons... all you master blasters
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#64
13th November 2008, 03:28 PM
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Re: When Technicals signal a Bear ?
Nuton was sitting under a tree when a nut felled on his head.......
and he started thinking......why nut felled........letter-on he discovered rule of gravity. and so on........Jemas Watt.... a sciencetist always need a reason for a act and if he find.........he discover new inventions....... but as far as me.......I am pure ATAMA RAM type person.......no reason required...... I trust........laxmi maiee neither follow eliot wave nor respect support & resitance. do she ......? But yes......I accept.......manuplation Quote:
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#65
13th November 2008, 03:37 PM
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Re: When Technicals signal a Bear ?
Follow the sentiments ...
1) When your neighborhood panwallah starts giving out advice on how to make money in stocks. 2) When stock market gossips get into the scripts of saas-bahu serials. 3) When 25 year old analysts who have not seen a bear market in their life start making predictions. 4) The analysts give out target ranges (and upgrade those ranges) on a weekly basis. A Guess(Forward P/E) multiplied by another Guess (projected EPS) is a fantastic guess (Guess-squared). 5) When conditions 1..4 have been satisfied, wait for the final euphoric blow-off rally. Then once the volume slows up (markets start showing oversold positions) .... go short. 6) This is the most skillful part - but the most rewarding as well. Contrary to popular technical folk-lore the best crashes happen from oversold (not overbought) markets. We were oversold in Jan 2008, then again in August and recently in October. The major capitulation happened at these oversold levels. Markets follow the "Maximum Pain Theory" - it inflicts maximum pain on a large number of participants in a short time. Markets correct in 1/3rd time. So, if takes 18 months to rally 10,000 pts, then it will correct 10,000 pts in 6 months. Laws of gravity ... Dow 6,500 and Sensex 6,800 is what I see in the next one year. We will see a deflation. Interesting facts : Nasdaq : 4,817 Top (31/03/2000), 795 Bottom (31/10/2002) -83% from top Nikkei : 38,957 Top (29/12/1989), 7603 Bottom ( 34/04/2003) -80% from top As for the bottom - never bottom fish !! There are no rules for catching bottoms.
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| The Following User Says Thank You to Adheer For This Useful Post: | ||
devangan123 (14th November 2008) | ||
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