When Technicals signal a Bear ?

dsanjyot · #31 16th February 2008, 03:00 PM

Further upto which point this bear mkt can go? this is most important question.. In normal view the Charts always try to fillup the gaps that have been left open. So the mkt should cover those gaps in this down turn... one is @ 14500 and other is @ 13400. The wolf wave tgt is comming close to second gap !!!

dsanjyot · #32 16th February 2008, 03:26 PM

Further there is another technique. If one can draw the EMA of 50, 100, 200 intervals on charts. In bear market the 50 day EMA crosses below 100 n 200 EMA's first (Signal no 1) then the 100 day Ema follows and crosses below 200 day EMA (Confirmation of Signal) and the prices / candles gradually start shifting downward to 50/100 DMA which act as resistance. Now unless 50/100 EMA moves further up n crosses 200 EMA there is no chance of recovery. DOW has already given the confirmation. Sensex/Nify are in process and still not given any such indication though 50 EMA is about to cross the 100 EMA which may happen in next week. but 200 EMA is quite far hence our going into the BEAR mkt is a distant task.

Sanjyot

dsanjyot · #33 16th February 2008, 03:47 PM

CAC, NIKKEI were the first to give such signal. DOW / NASDAQ / S&P / FTSE are already in and DAX / Hangseng have yet to give the signal confirmation. whereas india is yet to give even first signal

Sanjyot

dsanjyot · #34 16th February 2008, 03:50 PM

Strait Times is giving the confirmation...in process but cant confirmly confirm to be in bear move. May b lets wait for a day or two

dsanjyot · #35 16th February 2008, 03:54 PM

The bottomline of all the above analysis is that Indian mkt seems to b strongest of all the mentioned above. Second strong group consists of Hangseng & DAX Rest all r weak and the weakest of them are CAC n NIKKEI. So any revival in global sentiment we will b the first to get benefit.... so watchout the movements in Hangseng to get a clue for day to day trade. if it goes down in the morning it is most likely we will follow it.....

Sanjyot

uasish · #36 16th February 2008, 06:56 PM

dsanjyot,

Your enthuthiasm is infectious.
As i understand.
Mkt always has a movement & as these movements :=
a)Unpredictable in the Direction part .
b)Now suppose a Direction is established & understood by us ;then we are unsure of the magnitude of the Present Directional Thurst,whether by the time i take the Trade it is on the Last Leg.
Hence world wide traders took recourse to understand these Up-Down movements & few termed these movements as WAVES.Some found different PATTERNS.
Mr. Brian Wolfe found a Special type of PATTERNS in WAVES & the Wolfe Wave Cult was
formed,just like H & S or Cup & Handle or Elliot Waves.
There was many studies done by Researchers to find the SUCCESS rate of all these different Waves & Patterns ,till date i am not aware if ANY of these Actually has an edge.Though i personally has found that if i had to make any Discretion between 2 signals the 1 which also confirms with say Wolfe or Elliot i am inclined to go for that one.

Asish

hindlevernet · #37 16th February 2008, 07:05 PM

Dear investors,

There is not a slightest doubt in my mind that We are in correction mode and that too from 31 October 2007. Nifty made peak of 6012 on 01 November which is called ORTHODOX TOP and after completion of wave A of correction Nifty made another Peak of 6347 which we call IRREGULAR TOP in the language of ELLIOTT WAVE PRINCIPLE. All the caluclation are made from ORTHODOX TOP. A clean cut of 41% from Orthodox top is on the cards. It means to me that Nifty will find its bottom in the range of 3500-3600. If you like to know more about it, you are welcome to send me mail: xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx com Thanks and regards--SURESH MITTAL--Technical Analyst

kkseal · #38 16th February 2008, 08:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hindlevernet

Dear investors,

There is not a slightest doubt in my mind that We are in correction mode and that too from 31 October 2007. Nifty made peak of 6012 on 01 November which is called ORTHODOX TOP and after completion of wave A of correction Nifty made another Peak of 6347 which we call IRREGULAR TOP in the language of ELLIOTT WAVE PRINCIPLE. All the caluclation are made from ORTHODOX TOP. A clean cut of 41% from Orthodox top is on the cards. It means to me that Nifty will find its bottom in the range of 3500-3600. If you like to know more about it, you are welcome to send me mail: xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx com Thanks and regards--SURESH MITTAL--Technical Analyst

What shape/pattern are you assuming for wave C? And what is this assumption based on?

Regards,
Kalyan.

Czar · #39 17th February 2008, 09:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hindlevernet

Dear investors,

There is not a slightest doubt in my mind that We are in correction mode and that too from 31 October 2007. Nifty made peak of 6012 on 01 November which is called ORTHODOX TOP and after completion of wave A of correction Nifty made another Peak of 6347 which we call IRREGULAR TOP in the language of ELLIOTT WAVE PRINCIPLE. All the caluclation are made from ORTHODOX TOP. A clean cut of 41% from Orthodox top is on the cards. It means to me that Nifty will find its bottom in the range of 3500-3600. If you like to know more about it, you are welcome to send me mail: xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx com Thanks and regards--SURESH MITTAL--Technical Analyst

Please stop your "every downturn is a collapse" theory & crying wolf since 2 years... to attract gullible clients during every down turn

darsh_goswami · #40 21st February 2008, 02:25 PM

Nice discussion goin on ,..

CZAR,.. Ashishda ,.. if such seniors are confused about the market trend? its surprising ,..!! or i think still people are biased the way market moved since past few years. As it got corrected everytime, it got a sudden spike and made new highs. Now, for the very first time since past 4 yrs we r witnessing no buying support is coming from FII or domestic funds. We are seeing bounces but its not sustaining.
question is are we into bear phaze ? answer could be NOT YET.
markets are getting consolidated between the range of 18400-16400.
now 3 day closing below 16400 levels can confirm the down trend for next 2000 points and may be again few closes below 200 DMA with good volume can confirm downtrend and then we can see the bear phaze.
ur views plz.
regards,..
Darsh