When Technicals signal a Bear ?

kkseal · #21 14th February 2008, 09:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Czar

1992 & 2000 were perfect bears, forget the scams, 2000 it was a worldwide phenomena, when sellers overwhelm the buyers for an extended period we enter bear market & thus buyers give up in the later stage... fundamentals & supports are just silenced, say RIL drops from 3200 to 1600 & still don't find buyers be sure we are in bear & RIL can drop sub 1k levels, surely the RIL fans will give up then...

Depends on the reason for the drop (Causality)

Also on the perspective. A short term or even medium term trader may find no reason to buy but someone with a 3-5 yr horizon may find plenty of reasons (Relativity)

Regards,
Kalyan.

kkseal · #22 14th February 2008, 10:12 PM

WRT CVs mention of 'specifics', i learnt of a hedge fund mgr in the US who is short on bond insurers but long on retail (& as far as i know the retail category in his portfolio is the essential goods - Big Bazaar - type). His reasoning is fascinating (though he doesn't spell it out much) & the retail sales data has borne him out so far.

Regards,
Kalyan.

prabhjeetrana · #23 15th February 2008, 08:39 PM

According to me the slope of 200 day EMA or 50 week EMA decides the Bull or Bear market.

oxusmorouz · #24 15th February 2008, 09:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by prabhjeetrana

According to me the slope of 200 day EMA or 50 week EMA decides the Bull or Bear market.

Why? .

sudoku1 · #25 15th February 2008, 09:29 PM

when confusion prevails......LABEL the mkts as 'B A R E' mkts...

chiruvyapari · #26 16th February 2008, 12:20 AM

I think right shoulder was formed on 4th feb.at 5545 on nifty. voulumes also low.

uasish · #27 16th February 2008, 08:19 AM

chiruvyapari,

Nice 2 see your effort to inspect & postmortem that is the way we learn from past.
Would you plz share any such repeated recurrence of past & what was the possible outcome after the Event.

Asish

dsanjyot · #28 16th February 2008, 11:11 AM

Isn't Wolf wave analysis useful for finding out the bear mkt?

Sanjyot

Czar · #29 16th February 2008, 01:00 PM

Wolf wave is just a short term pattern, doesn't have anything to do with bull or bear market, but rather a correction in the imbalance of the last move

dsanjyot · #30 16th February 2008, 02:56 PM

Ya u r right CZAR. But look at it from different angle.. Jan correction was a result of the Wolf wave developed during Nov / Dec. But it corrected more than the target may b due to any reason. But if u consider previous incomplete Wolf wave which is now active since the 1-3 line has been broken not once but twice. this is sure indication that the previous (1.Feb 2.Mar 3.July 4.Aug) W/W is active and if u compare time wise it shows quite a similarity. Also it is behaving just like the Wolf Wave theory considering Supports and Resistances... and what i feel that u can use the W/W analysis on intraday / daily / weekly/monthly charts to earn profits.