Elliot Wave - Nifty Weekly Analysis

FROM THE DESK OF JAYKUMAR DOSHI

NIFTY WEEKLY TECHNICAL UPDATE FOR 20-08-07 TO 24-08-07

Last week we were expecting nifty to touch the range of 4209 to 4136 minimum & on the maximum it may breach 4100.It preferred the second alternative by touching the 4002 as low of the week. It opened at 4393.6 went up to4395.5 on the same day to register the high of the week. It then continued the move down to make the low of the week on Friday at 4002.2 & finally closed at 4108.05.Thus it lost the 225.30 points on the weekly close basis. We will attempt how it behaves in the coming week in the following paragraphs.
(1)ELLIOT WAVE COUNT:- We are considering the wave count from the bottom of 16-06-06 at the 2595.65.The first probable wave count points for the completion of five wave pattern & present decline
from the 4647.95 is the corrective wave. This wave count has the validity as the rise from 3554.5 dated 05-03-07 has all the characteristics of a terminal wave.This have been shown in weekly chart.

Since the 4100 is breached in less time than it took to rise from 4100.80 to 4647.95, we will consider the present correction to be of higher degree. It took 30 days to rise & retraced it completely in 17 days. At the moment there are three probable wave counts are likely & we have shown these in hourly chart as chart with three different colors. These are green, pink & violet colors. Their respective probabilities are also shown in the chart. If market does not cross 4240 in next two days than green color wave count becomes the reality. In case it is able to cross 4240 then green color wave count gets negated. Similarly a cross above 4530 will negate the pink color wave count.

(2)JAPANESE CANDLESTICK:Last week we reported a distorted bearish engulfing line in weekly chart & an evening star in the daily chart.The effect of these patterns were seen during the week gone by.This week it has formed the long weekly black candle.This is certainly a bearish sign.However a 50% retracement of this candle is very much likely on the cards.
(3)CHART PATTERN:-In the weekly chart the rising channel is broken & after pull back it will start its downward journey.In the daily chart it forming the head & shoulder pattern.It is forming the right shoulder & if it does not cross the 4534 the pattern of head & shoulder will be confirmed.
(4)INDICATORS:-In the hourly chart all the indicators are bullish.In the daily all the indicators are negative & weekly are turning down.

OUTLOOK & STRATEGY:-We are expecting market to bounce back to 4440- 4510 if it is able to cross 4240.In case if it manages to breach the 4543 decisively it will head for a new high.

CHECK OUT THE CHARTS ATTACHED

This analysis on NIFTY will be done on weekly basis on Monday.

We expect your responses here about the analysis.

Any suggestions are welcome.

Hi BIFM,

I like the way you are putting the Elliot Wave Theory. Its great to learn your analysis. Just want to know if you could put your analysis before the market opens on Monday. Also it will be great if you could put your single line comment on each end of the day as to which probable direction the market is heading on daily basis.

Thumbs Up to you !!1

Sanjyot

hi BIFM, i agree with dsanjyot, iam particularly impressed with your analysis and in the days after your posting iam daily comparing the intraday charts for further waves developing. I have limited knowledge of Elliott Wave analysis but this is is my crude analysis on the wave counts. i assume the green(50%) we are into. whether we completed the (4)th within the {3}rd impulse downwave and also {3}(5)-2(a)(b)(c) on friday. whether {3}(5)-3 will now open down targeting 4000(low of {1} and then 3917(1.618 times{1}) or whether the pattern has changed. I'll be most thankful for ur response, ur doing a great job.

BIFM sir, pls update this thread at the earliest.

kanhi se copy karne ko milega tab update hoga

FROM THE DESK OF JAYDOSHI

NIFTY WEEKLY TECHNICAL UPDATE FOR 27-08-07 TO 31-08-07

Last week we had expected market to bounce back to 4240-4260 range & then attempt to test 4002 in & around. Market did the same things on dictated lines first opening at 4108.95 & then rose to 4262.60 levels to register the high of the week. It then declined to 4040.15 as the low of the week & a higher bottom against the 4002.20 & finally bounced off to close at 4190.15. Thus it gained the 82.1 points on the weekly close basis. We will attempt how it behaves in the coming week in the following paragraphs.
(1)ELLIOT WAVE COUNT:-Weekly & daily wave count remains the same as last week & we would repeat the same in short for quick reference. We are considering the wave count from the bottom of 16-06-06 at the 2595.65.The first probable wave count points for the completion of five wave pattern & present decline from the 4647.95 is the corrective wave. This wave count has the validity as the rise from 3554.5 dated 05-03-07, has all the characteristics of a terminal wave.This have been shown in weekly chart.

Since the 4100 is breached in less time than it took to rise from 4100.80 to 4647.95, we will consider the present correction to be of higher degree. It took 30 days to rise & retraced it completely in 17 days.In the hourly chart At the moment there are three probable wave counts are likely & we have shown these in hourly chart as chart with three different colors. These are green, pink & violet colors. Their respective probabilities are also shown in the chart. If market does not cross 4240 in next two days than green color wave count becomes the reality. In case it is able to cross 4240 then green color wave count gets negated. Similarly a cross above 4530 will negate the pink color wave count.

We have made some alterations in percentage probability for every case as the technical clues of last week have been suggesting. The major reason for this is the two higher bottom of 4040 & 4102 against the previous weeks bottom of 4002.We see only 30% s probability that market will return from 4240-4260 as represented by green color. We see only 10% probability that the market will make new high above 4647 as shown in violet color. We have assigned 60% probability to pink color wave count which should at least cross 4410 & may stretch to 4500+ zone.
(2)JAPANESE CANDLESTICK:-In the weekly chart the bullish harami pattern is formed & this is certainly a bullish pattern & augments our view of the rally to minimum 4410.In the daily chart the piercing line formed on 22nd August 2007 has been confirmed by 24th August 2007 white body candle. We should witness the bullish implications of this during the coming week.
(3)CHART PATTERN:-In the daily the larger head & shoulder pattern require the formation of right shoulder. This should be provided by the ascending triangle marked in the hourly chart with dark green color lines. This is also supportive to our idea of bounce to 4410-4530 area.
(4)INDICATORS:-Weekly chart indicators are turning down but the daily chart indicators are turning bullish. Hourly chart indicators are already bullish.
OUTLOOK & STRATEGY:-We are expecting a test of 4240-4260 as per our most probable wave count. In a corrective dip from there onwards if it does not violate the 4102 buy 50% with the stop of 4102 & balance 50% on the decisive cross of 4260 for the minimum target of 4410 which may stretch up to 4530.A partial profit booking at 4410 & thereafter tight floating stop is advised for the long positions.
SPECIAL-NOTE:-With the volatile world market due to subprime mortgage & fluid political situation may distort the wave count to some extent but not much in the skeleton.


Writer welcomes query or suggestions at [email protected]

DISCLAIMER
This Newsletter is an expression of Technical Analysis. It is NOT a market prediction. It is NOT an advisory or suggestion to buy or sell any types of securities. This is an educational and learning exercise, only to share our methods of technical analysis. Trading and Investing MUST always be done with prudent money management and use of stop losses. One Bad trade can ruin the trader, so always keep risk low. IF you do not agree with the statements mentioned herein, please close this document, do not proceed further, do not read the Newsletter.

FROM THE DESK OF JAYDOSHI (Technical Analyst)

NIFTY WEEKLY TECHNICAL UPDATE FOR 03-09-07 TO 07-09-07
Last week we had expected the market to bounce back in the range of 4410 to 4530 as per our most probable wave count. Market bounced to 4471.30 to prove us right on dot. It opened at 4193.60 on Monday & this itself was the low of the week. It then rose till the Friday to register the high of the week at4471.3 to finally close the week at 4464.Thus it gained 273.85 points on weekly close basis & in terms of percentage it gained 6.54%.We will analyze in the following paragraphs how it is likely to behave in coming weeks.
(1)ELLIOT WAVE COUNT:-Weekly & daily wave count remains the same as last week & we would repeat the same in short for quick reference. We are considering the wave count from the bottom of 16-06-06 at the 2595.65.The most probable wave count points for the completion of five wave pattern & present decline from the 4647.95 is the corrective wave. This wave count has the validity as the rise from 3554.5 dated 05-03-07, has all the characteristics of a terminal wave. This have been shown in weekly chart.
At the moment there are two probable wave counts likely & we have shown these with pink & violet colors in the hourly chart. Their respective probabilities are also shown as 65% with the pink color & 35% with the violet color. If index could not cross 4534 in coming days then the pink color wave count is the reality & it should retrace at least 61.8 from the high of the week to 4002.2.A decisive cross above 4534 will negate the pink color wave count. We expect that it is likely to remain 4410 to 4534 for few more days & during this tenure few failure attempts to cross will be made. This should in probabilities form the terminal wave pattern of current up wave from 4002.3 & in classical technical analysis this will form the distribution zone or pattern.
(2)JAPANESE CANDLESTICK:-Last week we had reported the weekly bullish harami pattern & the same has been vindicated by the formation of long weekly white candle. From the bullish point of view it should further rise. From the bearish or conservative perspective it should consolidate & correct.
(3)CHART PATTERN:-In the hourly chart we had shown the ascending triangle & the 100% ideal target for the same is coming at the 4510.If it stars descending from there in the daily it will form the right shoulder of head & shoulder reversal pattern.
(4)INDICATORS:-All the three timeframe indicators of weekly, daily & hourly are at contradiction to each other & at the moment inconclusive.
OUTLOOK & STRATEGY:-As we have discussed above the bullish & bearish probabilities are evenly placed. This is the time a professional trader or speculator should buck & thus distances oneself from becoming gambler. However a breach above 4534 or failure to do so will tilt odds in favor of bullish or bearish undertone for traders. This opportunity of tilted probabilities should be exploited by the trader or speculator as & when they emerge. We have already shown our bias for not crossing of 4534.


SPECIAL-NOTE:-With the volatile world market due to subprime mortgage & fluid political situation may distort the wave count to some extent but not much in the skeleton.

agreed that candles are showing bullish patterns hence the bearish perspective doesnt arise for now till some bearish patterns come up on charts .Anyways thanks for your report.

a good thread to read..........hope u get a few student soon