Elliot Wave - Nifty Weekly Analysis

FROM THE DESK OF JAY DOSHI
NIFTY WEEKLY TECHNICAL UPDATE FOR 10-09-07 TO 14-09-07
Last week we had observed that market is likely to remain in 4410 to 4534 range for few more days & during this tenure few failure attempts to cross will be made.It made three abortive attempts to cross the 4510 level but could not close above the 4510.It opened at 4466.65 & then went down till Thursday to register the low of the week at 4445.55.It then rose to make high of the week at 4547.75 on Friday to finally close at 4509.50.Thus it gained the 45.5 points on weekly close basis. We will analyze in the following paragraphs how it is likely to behave in coming weeks.

(1)ELLIOT WAVE COUNT:- Weekly wave count remains the same as last week & we would repeat the same in short for quick reference. We are considering the wave count from the bottom of 16-06-06 at the 2595.65.The most probable wave count points for the near completion of five wave pattern. This wave count has the validity as the rise from 3554.5 dated 05-03-07, has all the characteristics of a terminal wave. In the daily chart below the chart is drawn from 3554.5 till the date which forms the 5th wave of lower degree for the impulse wave from 2595.65 as shown in weekly chart.


In the daily chart there are two probable wave counts shown with green & blue colors. As per the green color wave count we have completed the full five wave sequence & we are now in corrective wave. According to blue color wave count a minor 5th of 5th within a terminal wave is in progress. Therefore a new high above the 4647 is likely with this wave scenario. At the same with the green color wave count a bottom in & around 4002 is most likely.
In the hourly chart below are shown both the wave count of daily with the same color & their expected wave tour in the next week. At the moment their probabilities are more or less equal.A break below 4377 will increase the probability & below 4293 blue count will get negated. Reverse will be the case of blue color if 4377 is not violated.
OUTLOOK & STRATEGY:-As we have discussed above the bullish & bearish probabilities are evenly placed. This is the time a professional trader or speculator should buck & thus distances oneself from becoming gambler. However a breach below 4377 or breach above 4515 will tilt the odds in favour of bear & bull respectively.
SPECIAL-NOTE:-With the volatile world market due to subprime mortgage & fluid political situation may distort the wave count to some extent but not much in the skeleton.

Writer welcomes query or suggestions at mumbai.bifm@gmail.com

Attached Files

wnifty 10-09-07.pdf (97.0 KB, 21 views)

FROM THE DESK OF JAY DOSHI

NIFTY WEEKLY TECHNICAL UPDATE FOR 17-09-07 TO 21-09-07
Last week market opened at 4506.85 & went down to 4452.95 to register the low of the week on the same day. It then continued to move up till Friday to 4582.60 to make high of the week & finally closed the week at 4518.00.Thus it made a successful attempt to cross the 4534 but it could not sustain above that level. In technical parlance it is termed as the false break out. Thus it gained the 8.5 points on weekly close basis. We will analyze in the following paragraphs how it is likely to behave in coming weeks.



(1)ELLIOT WAVE COUNT:- We are considering the wave count from the bottom of 16-06-06 at the 2595.65.The most probable wave count points for the near completion of five wave pattern. This wave count has the validity as the rise from 3554.5 dated 05-03-07, has all the characteristics of a terminal wave. In the daily chart below the chart is drawn from 3554.5 till the date which forms the 5th wave of lower degree for the impulse wave from 2595.65 as shown in weekly chart.

In the daily chart there are two probable wave counts shown with green & blue colors. As per the green color wave count we have completed the full five wave sequence & we are now in corrective wave. According to blue color wave count a minor 5th of 5th within a terminal wave is in progress. Therefore a new high above the 4647 is likely with this wave scenario. At the same with the green color wave count a bottom in & around 4002 is most likely.




In the hourly chart below are shown both the wave count of daily with the same color & their expected wave tour in the next week. A break below 4377 will increase the probability & below 4293 blue count will get negated. Reverse will be the case of blue color if 4377 is not violated. We are holding the view that if blue color wave count is followed we should see a new high at 4720 or higher. We see this happening as 65% probability. In case of green color probability is 35%.
JAPANESE CANDLESTICK:-In the weekly chart it has formed the doji which denotes hesitation or indecision.In the daily chart a shooting star or gravestone doji which is bearish. This should keep the market in down trend for the initial part of the week.
OUTLOOK & STRATEGY:-As we have discussed above the if 4377 is not breached we are expecting a bullish run up to 4720 with 65% probability. If it breaches the 4377 then we may see 4000 index again. We are putting the probability of this happening as 35%.

Writer welcomes query or suggestions at Mumbai.bifm@gmail.com


DISCLAIMER
This Newsletter is an expression of Technical Analysis. It is NOT a market prediction. It is NOT an advisory or suggestion to buy or sell any types of securities. This is an educational and learning exercise, only to share our methods of technical analysis. Trading and Investing MUST always be done with prudent money management and use of stop losses. One Bad trade can ruin the trader, so always keep risk low. IF you do not agree with the statements mentioned herein, please close this document, do not proceed further, do not read the Newsletter.

Attached Files

	nifty daily chart.pdf (26.1 KB, 10 views)
	nifty weekly chart.pdf (19.5 KB, 10 views)
	nifty hourly chart.pdf (22.5 KB, 12 views)

FROM THE DESK OF JAY DOSHI

NIFTY WEEKLY TECHNICAL UPDATE FOR 24-09-07 TO 28-09-07

Last week market opened at 4518.45 & then declined till Tuesday to 4481.55 to register the low of the week. It then keep rising to 4855.70 till Friday to make the high of the week to finally close at 4837.55.Thus it gained 319.55 points on weekly closing basis. This has surpassed the our estimated target of 4720 by good margin We will analyze in the following paragraphs how it is likely to behave in coming weeks.
(1)ELLIOT WAVE COUNT:- We are considering the wave count from the bottom of 16-06-06 at the 2595.65.The most probable wave count points for the near completion of five wave pattern. This wave count has the validity as the rise from 3554.5 dated 05-03-07, has all the characteristics of a terminal wave. In the daily chart below the chart is drawn from 3554.5 till the date which forms the 5th wave of lower degree for the impulse wave from 2595.65 as shown in weekly chart. Alternatively a extension wave looks to be unfolding. The wave count of this is very hazy & we may be able to see with some more data unfolding.
In the daily chart the last week the reported green color wave count is negate & blue color is the only valid wave count.At the moment we are considering this as the type of an extended wave & in the light of its early stages it is difficult to estimate its target.One should trade in the direction of trend & completely avoid other way.

With all these web complexity we hold the view that market should reach the target of 5147 in next few week.We would like this to hold with the stop of 4748.
OUTLOOK & STRATEGY:-As we have discussed above we are looking for 5147 target in next few weeks but the intermittent correction from 5000 nifty & expiry consideration can make the market quite choppy & volatile.
Writer welcomes query or suggestions at Mumbai.bifm@gmail.com.

DISCLAIMER
This Newsletter is an expression of Technical Analysis. It is NOT a market prediction. It is NOT an advisory or suggestion to buy or sell any types of securities. This is an educational and learning exercise, only to share our methods of technical analysis. Trading and Investing MUST always be done with prudent money management and use of stop losses. One Bad trade can ruin the trader, so always keep risk low. IF you do not agree with the statements mentioned herein, please close this document, do not proceed further, do not read the Newsletter.

Attached Files

	nifty daily chart.pdf (28.0 KB, 20 views)
	nifty weekly chart.pdf (26.1 KB, 18 views)