Which one is the Best?

joy,

just read TA by martin pring or murphy first. then read about money management, types of trading and advantages/disadvantages. rest will come later.

Immensly flatered by the compliment , coming from a person whom i highly regard.

Zero lag filter is already there. The point is that it can take only price reading till today. How will it get tomorrow's price? This was the basis of my discussion with Vince. Even a 5 year old kid can just visually look at a chart and say that it is trending. BUT that means PRICE HAS ALREADY TRENDED FROM POINT X TILL NOW. Nobody can say what the next price will be. SO you CANNOT SAY that I am catching a trend. You can bet on price direction continuation thats all. There's nothing more to it. I was surprised by the lack of understanding of such a simple concept in my earlier discussions with others, but that's a different matter altogether. There is no price formation or indicator that will say that a trend will definitely continue. You can only try to increase your chances by using a zero lag filter.

Dear Joy,

Go through all the indicator studies, their various combinations , filtering etc...... that's because u will know what does not work rather than what works.Market keeps on changing every sec, ever hour and every day. What was best filter and indicator fails to prove in future time.

Kindly concentrate on price related areas.

1) Fibonacci and advance fib studies
2) Wolfe waves and Gartleys......be very careful to apply it correctly
3)Tight Flags and H$S patterns
4) Playing the reversal days in variety of way!
5) Gap trading

all above studies would be even more powerful when u employ volume!

these are 5 price related studies which work in all types of markets like stocks, bonds, commodities, currency.....and i have been successfuly using them with proper Money management.

Finally: beleive in the principle: " give and u shall receive "

Regards,
Winston

beginner_av,
There exists 'a condtitional transitional kernel' in today's price for to-morrows
'probability density'.If you accept the analogy that price has a "Memory",otherwise you r right no price information that the trend will continue.

Asish

i really dont know about that, but i do know about a higher probability density when you take a financial time series than just one discrete data set with one element (today's price). I believe price series has a memory, not individual prices taken one at a piece.

hi,
i come to back to receive my family as they r coming tomorrow. meanwhile
i[humbug] like to comment on this thread.no i am no expert[though have seen sufficently to dare to comment in free time]
PRICE ITSELF IS SUFFICIENT TO STUDY PREDICTABILITY.whether it has trend or random movement? at how much movement after it shall show continuity..when it may show mean reversion.
next..how it is affecting by news publication i.e.reaction of public sentiment with news.
we human beings as pro or amateur observing to search for oppurtunity ..to enter low risk trade...to make money. so some pattern r defined to validate direction with likely outcome...only with confirmation by price winning traders enter.
as different time frame, bias and faith..r variable as also the style of trading...final outcome in real sense uncertain though probabilistic.we do backtest to define +expectency and build confidence to take trade.system is nothing but an approach to do smoothlessly trading within own comfort level.

as starting pt ..u require some indicator for directional predictability..ma useful.
concept of dual ma/macd ...improve further entry /exit pt.

now when we want to know how long trend trend can continue ..we search to check strength of trend...so comes momentum /roc/rsi.
now looking at leading indicator...and its comparative analysis we predict top /bottom....RARELY WE DO IT RIGHT.
so we go back to wave..impulse /reaction...retracement idea..to predict reversal pt.
some researchers study further ..time element when it may happen?fact is...
when money goes out..FALL IS IMMINENT.
VOLATILITY IS WHEN BUYER/SELLER UNPREDICTIVE and ready to take risk within limit.

other safe watcher believe in support buy.
experience teach only which indicator shall be helpful for one...after lot of trial error it suit someone.but volume thurst is must for price continuation...see MICO..eod..flag pattern [no i could not trade in this pattern as i was out ]

for a newbee nothing is helpful...till he develops a feel for it.
then come only system ..+ money management+ stock selection.
READ neowave conference+mastering elliotwave..GLENN NEELY.
as A KISS BELIEVER I RECOMMEND SAINT THREAD.

i personally use william%r and aroon....for random market model bill williams indicator with sar....this 2 template only

Yes, the zero-lag story ends there. There's nothing more it can tell (beyond today's price). But my idea is to carve out an indicator from a derivative of this filter which will tell me whether or not i) the existing trend is likely to continue ii) a new trend is likely to develop. It is (& will always be) about probabilities. But even a slight edge (on the hard right edge) would be valuable.

Regards,
Kalyan.

Oh come on Asish. You fully deserve the compliment.

It was your (& Savant's) use of price derivatives for gauzing the next day's price movement that wriggled this worm in my head (& woke me up from my slumber) . I thought why not try to use a derivative of something that portends the trend to gauze trend 'movement' the same way.

Regards,
Kalyan.

I tend to agree with that. I intend using not just one day's price but a price array as the derivative (of a filter rather than raw prices to reduce noise). More so when my intention is not to gauge the next day's price/price range but rather to seek a better answer to the query - 'how's the trend likely to fare from here?'

Even if i were to gauge prices on a day-to-day basis i'd base it on a price series (like perhaps a 3/5 day linear reg of HLC) rather than a singular discrete price element.

Regards,
Kalyan.