Which one is the Best?

First, with all your insights, you have conveniently forgotten to reply to the questions that I asked. Second, it is not about timeframes. In the same chart of yours that you consider noise, I have shown price movements in one
direction for more than two bars (whether you callit trend or not is up to you, I call it profit making opportunity).

now coming to your insights, sorry sir, the basic assumption about price and time is incorrect here. do you really mean "once a trend has been identified and it can be done very early on in the trend". congratulations for then you have found the holy grail!!! or instead of a magical indicator, a magical price forecaster. show me one chart today and tell me that you have identified a trend that will continue tomorrow and day after with 100% reliability! Surely you will in 5 seconds. Surely you may be correct, for there is 50% probability. Show me 1000 charts for the day, will you now? all small breakouts that you may consider as noise may turn into big trends. for nobody can say for sure that this is the beginning of a trend or end of a trend. then the turtles wouldn't have gone out of business. and ALL trend traders will be billionaires. No counter trend or reactions ever.

how can you identify trends early and say this is a trend that will continue for X amount of price and Y amount of
time? If you are then all you are doing is predicting the market in your mind. else you are just attaching
probabilities, which brings us back to the reason of the discussion.

Everybody is not a trend trader. What do you consider a trend? Higher highs and higher lows for past 5 bars? 10 bars? 20 bars? crossing of trendlines? and then what is noise? check your own graph that you consider as noise, for trends in the same time frame that you have shown. You consider trading a trend because you have entered into a trend after X bar observation? One may also enter after higher highs of two bars or a MACD > 2 or 4 or 8 or ADX rising and above 25..you name it.

And what is this one time wrong and many times wrong. Whichever way you enter, once in a trade, you can be wrong ONLY ONCE. Not MULTIPLE TIMES. If you are wrong again, then you are in a new trade, trend or otherwise. My basic premise is that I take profit after a variety of conditions and don't wait to see if my trend engine is rolling. And if I am wrong, immediately my money management gets me out.

Gambling? Ah! you make me laugh. Gambling is the creation of risk, whose outcome is not known. So is speculation.

Only difference is that in gambling, much like the options trade held till expiry, its all or nothing. But in
speculation you can select your stop losses. its nice to know that you are not a gambler like us and you are 100%
sure about the outcome of your trading. Someday you may write it all in a book and lesser mortals like us will know
about your be-sure-100% outcome technique. If you are not 100% sure you are also a gambler much like the blackjack player who attaches very high probability when half a deck remains with high value cards than two decks.

And what is this thing about random entry.a person who believes in random entry system doesn't enter trades with his eyes closed. Considering the markets random gives me an edge. Who cares whether it is actually random or not. The following lines from Stridsman is the essence of my trading (Till the day I fall into the category of the fortunate ones who will know FOR SURE that the next trades will be winners):

"One way is to assume that the markets are as close to random as possibly can be. Therefore, a strategy that works in a close-to-random environment needs to be robust enough to maximize the potential of any non-random market behavior when it appears, while still keeping you in the game when the market is random.[........]Hence, most trades signaled by a system, whether they turn out to be winners or losers, are because of random market moves, only a few trades, scattered among all the signaled trades, are actually because of the type of non-randomness the system tries to catch. The trick is to make most of the latter category of trades while breaking even or just barely producing a profit (my addition - or a small loss) on all other trades. Unfortunately however there is no way to distinguish between one tupe of trade from the other beforehand."

Thomas Stridsman, Trading Systems and Money Management, McGrawHill, pp 287

Since I incorporated this into my system, my returns has gone up considerably. It may not work for anyone else at all.

All, and let me emphasize, all indicators are magical, if you know how it is constructed and what it is supposed to show. The same way you wont see a trend in one bar or two bars, a MACD user wont see till MACD > 0 or ADX user wont see till ADX> 25 and rising and so on. Volatility bands give me the best signals in volti breakout. And if you believe that these indicators are not useful, so then are your price and volume as eventually as you said the indicators come from price and volume only. Indicators often filter out the noise, even if there may be a lag in a few.

I am sorry if I have offended you with my style of writing. I am not in a debating society here, nor will I keep on arguing. I just wanted to clear a few points that I see repeatedly raised here and there.

Regards

Hi, I usually dont react, but I loved posting what I did today, cos you do not want to learn. For it takes time and effort to post and anyone with half baked knowledge comes and says anything he wants. You may disagree but what you are doing is telling a new trader that what is considered the essence of trading is slow poison. If you had a doubt about flawed system and money management or the word "start" you could have argued about it by posting to my reply. instead you just say whatever you want, the way you want. so i also answered in the same way, with a few colorful words. I am even happier with your response, but am pleasantly surprised by your toned down remarks and explanations rather than stuff that you are used to post. Finally (IMO) you are beginning your journey to become a trader! You can report to the moderator at will. I amnot going to edit what I have posted.

I DO NOT WANT TO LEARN? DO YOUR GUESSING RANDOMLY BUT IT IS ALSO FLAWED.....
AND NO SIR......I HAVE NOT ENOUGH TIME AND INTENTION TO ARGUE WITH YOUR
ARROGANCE.PLEASE CONTINUE WITH YOUR FLAWED IDEAS,NO MORE COMPLAINTS.

oh yeah! one more thing that i missed out. My reply was an answer to amarnath's post about flawed systems. You may not have eyes to notice that. So the way you poked your nose without context or understanding of system deserved the answer.

ha ha ha ha!!!!! so you are back to your original self. talking crap without understanding a thing. its the leopard and its spots. ha ha ha!

Wish we all were "dumb" like you, the world will be more intelligent place to be.

very poor assumption, coz the world is not such an intelligent place yet!

Hi!

For newcomers, only advise do paper trading first then jump

beginner_av,

Hope now the ambience of this thread's high std deviation has reccessed to Mean.Can you plz enlighten me & joy433 ,what do you mean or in that matter what one wants to communicate by a 'Random Entry'.Does it mean to-morrow on any stock listed in Economic Times ,we Buy/Sell at opening or mid day or closing or any time & see the result next bar ?

Asish

Would this imply that everytime we manage to catch a trend* (using whatever method) we are into a non-random phase?

* however brief - it could be 2/3 bars directional move within the volatility bands

Excellent write-up BAV. Wonder if you could post a link to Stridsman's book.

Regards,
Kalyan.
R

This is the query :=

....what one wants to communicate by a 'Random Entry'.Does it mean to-morrow on any stock listed in Economic Times ,we Buy/Sell at opening or mid day or closing or any time & see the result next bar ?

This is the possible answer:=
.................................................. .................................................. ..........................................
Originally Posted by beginner_av

"One way is to assume that the markets are as close to random as possibly can be. Therefore, a strategy that works in a close-to-random environment needs to be robust enough to maximize the potential of any non-random market behavior when it appears, while still keeping you in the game when the market is random.[........]Hence, most trades signaled by a system, whether they turn out to be winners or losers, are because of random market moves, only a few trades, scattered among all the signaled trades, are actually because of the type of non-randomness the system tries to catch. The trick is to make most of the latter category of trades while breaking even or just barely producing a profit (my addition - or a small loss) on all other trades. Unfortunately however there is no way to distinguish between one tupe of trade from the other beforehand."

Thomas Stridsman, Trading Systems and Money Management, McGrawHill, pp 287

.................................................. .................................................. ...........................................

What we are emphasizing ,'Random' hence even with a flawed system one can stay afloat with vigilant Money Mgmt.
Yes fully accepted.
Now the overemphasizing part := We do not learn/waste time on indicators or learning TA ,becoz we are equiped with
Robust Money & Risk mgmt.
Why do i say overemphasizing becoz the poor fellow joy433 will now go to Trade mgmnt. part before making a
S Y S T E M. To make a system ,he has to grasp the Subject 1st.Now one may say joy dose'nt need to find the best
indicator to make a system for that matter any indicator will do.OK any will do ,but still he need AN INDICATOR.
See how we are missing the Horse before the cart.
Now the neo-classical approach :=
Any stock randomly chossen from ET ,entered in any time frame ,will give a win/loss similar to coin toss outcome,
or
today's price does not implicate any thing for tomorrow.
OK accepted.
Only becoz of this Random outcome of our performance we need to further
1) FINE tune our Indicators( Noise,Time series Hurst etc etc enters);
2) System have to be fully backtested (with CLEAR picture of Drawdown & the Best to be retained);
3) Right Money mgmt( as per the stress free Trading capital);
4)Strict Risk mgmnt (as per the style & profile of the trader);
Can we do without point no1.? then why we are not advising joy433 to study the basics 1st.
Plz let us put the horse where it belongs at the front of the cart.