Price movements in the same direction?

The Equity Curve on Random Walk Simmulation

Attached Images

Mimi Long Equity on Random Walk ordering.PNG (71.7 KB, 20 views)

The same thing ,but in this Report a strict Risk Mgmt. applied (for each trade in Fut a fixed $ Risk of 5000.00$ per trade is employed) and the actual NSE specification of Max $50000.00 for margin specified in trade database.

Now another report with more random simmulations for each trade (500) & no Pyramiding of profit.

Attached Files

Mimi Long_1(Monte Carlo Report).TXT (4.6 KB, 10 views)

Hi Ashish,

Wow.....So Many Posts to through......almost seems like I have been away for a month...

Will go through them in them evening......

Take Care

SavantGarde

so, what do you feel now? i cant comment on exact s/l method, but for your tests do try other available methods too!

beginner_av,
Must thnk you Ajay & SavantGarde once again,becoz of this threads real challenge & ur participation at every crucial juncture of understanding ,conceptually.
This few weeks of long excercise has left many unsolved parts stored in my computer.The last shove by you for bestowing faith in me actually started shaping those bits of unsolved parts into a culpable temporary whole,the result was the Metastock exploration of Nifty fut ,the 1st temporary module to work on..It had many flaws ,even the SL was undecided,forget the Exit.
Then building on that whole conceptually was not very though.Now based on yesterday's data a probability density of quantam displacement/change of state can be estimated with better probability.
1 very interesting observation,which you may have already observed,Nifty itself gives better result in Long only.(Though the sample data is insufficient just 4yrs).
Asked for 10yrs Dow & Nikkei's clean datas to fellow traders in Forex.Will do many tests this weekend.Got the (Australian index) just 2 hrs back.My datas are not clean before 2003,hence i normally avoid it.
The system :=
SL is just 1 % & that also on Mkt orders at opening,if the trade sustains then the trade is in favour,if not the probabiliy of Black candle becomes high,which can be known by 10 mins of opening bell,but reverse is not tested robustly,means a DOUBLE SL qty.
Larry Williams 'Pro' series indicators,& all this talk of 1st few mins are for scalpers,retailers the tests do not substantiate that .There were 1300 plus trades in backtest,still unable to check each charts,(however a small exploration with Metastock for opening Gaps on higher side & stored in excell with dates),verified those trades (done by the system) first.You will be surprised no Buy signals were generated by the system on earlier bars.(But population of gap-up datas are miniscule ,hence has to verify on more datas.)
So in a nutshell this System is almost ready,this qualifies with my other few systems in tight SL but i am still not happy with the winning %,it scores less than my other systems.Only good part with this System ,trading will be only 1st 10 mins of the day ,rest of the day nothing to do.
In my other Systems also ,no glueing with the Screen.
Started Beta testing with actual trades in Futures.
One of my biggest limitation is i do not know any Language than MSFL ,a knowledge in 'Pascal' would have been of enormous help,or in that matter even C ++ would have helped.

Asish

How do you deal with spikes during opening?

That is precisely what i am trying to fig out.Dot on the pain nerve thk you doctor,downspike is more than welcome but for up spike in the opening bell may have to introduce a condition after studying Up Gaps,but again any condition will have a > probability of miss (see Cipla fut chart of yesterday),
& SL may not remain tight (this part i cant compromise & non negotiable ).

well well well...dot on the pain nerve..thank you. had already forgotten that lost money on written calls on CIPLA today! now i am not going to talk much from here...for now you are entering specifics. final hint - try time shifts by 5 to 15 mins

There is some more things to incorporate ,actually missing the finnese in Entry.The 'Touche' ,again the choice between 'Accuracy' & 'Precision'.

there has to be a very good balance between finnese and execution capability in real time. Will you be able to take the entry while trading that you have used for testing. so the choice is between precision and real time execution