i've used EW for years and one thing I know for sure is that the
PriceTime Movement of financial instruments is IRREGULAR
irregular means there are no repetitive cycles, no repetitive patterns
and no simple exact repeating EW formations
so it's interesting when The acknowledged Master of EW, Glenn Neely asks
" What is Wrong With Elliott Wave and Forecasting ?"
while Neely is promoting his 'Neely River Trading Technology' he nevertheless
has some pertinent comments about EW
excerpt:
"First, even if you are good at forecasting, you probably won't be right more than
about 50% of the time.
Second, even if you are right about the direction of the market, your entry price
may be too high or too low, preventing the trade or reducing future profit potential.
Even if your entry was great, your stop placement may be too close or your exit
too early.
If you give each step of this process a 50% rate of success (probably too high),
by the time you reach the end you will achieve (at best) a 12.5% success rate.
Is there any wonder trading is so difficult for most?"
http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/get_traders/message/3727
some individuals choose a signals service, others like tinkering with the tools
contained in a charting program, others love coding and invent (re-invent) all sorts
of new indicator/system 'mousetraps', still others follow 'gurus'
eventually it's realised there is no holy trading grail
ultimately, each individual trader invents their own trading system
and for lack of a better description, that system is based on their
realised or unrealised personality
PriceTime Movement of financial instruments is IRREGULAR
irregular means there are no repetitive cycles, no repetitive patterns
and no simple exact repeating EW formations
so it's interesting when The acknowledged Master of EW, Glenn Neely asks
" What is Wrong With Elliott Wave and Forecasting ?"
while Neely is promoting his 'Neely River Trading Technology' he nevertheless
has some pertinent comments about EW
excerpt:
"First, even if you are good at forecasting, you probably won't be right more than
about 50% of the time.
Second, even if you are right about the direction of the market, your entry price
may be too high or too low, preventing the trade or reducing future profit potential.
Even if your entry was great, your stop placement may be too close or your exit
too early.
If you give each step of this process a 50% rate of success (probably too high),
by the time you reach the end you will achieve (at best) a 12.5% success rate.
Is there any wonder trading is so difficult for most?"
http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/get_traders/message/3727
some individuals choose a signals service, others like tinkering with the tools
contained in a charting program, others love coding and invent (re-invent) all sorts
of new indicator/system 'mousetraps', still others follow 'gurus'
eventually it's realised there is no holy trading grail
ultimately, each individual trader invents their own trading system
and for lack of a better description, that system is based on their
realised or unrealised personality