What's Wrong With Elliott Wave & Forecasting ?

CreditViolet · #11 13th May 2007, 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spiderman

you are right . Existing tools except ew are folkdance tools or primitive tools
and if you like them play with them. you are free to play with them.Who are the experts by the way?

Let me clear something first, I am not a newbie saying EW doesnt work.The question was how useful it is to a daily trader when there is no element of numerical probability involved. And how necessary is forecasting or projections given unlimited scenarios and subjectivity.

The expert mentioned is Neely quoted in the first post.

And please feel free to show how you find it useful or show us some results of how you've used it.

Rgds

PS: SpiderMan 3 was nice, 3 villains in a movie was a cool idea.

CreditViolet · #12 13th May 2007, 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hari09omkar

Sir,you have learnt the art of making people laugh at the same time pinpointing at the subject of discussion and taking the point away from the opponent completely.......Please don't hit sixers in every lose delivery and give some dot balls to the bowlers also

.........although those sixers are very much enjoyable and an occassion for learning too,than those dot balls of the chinese (or japanese,where cricket was banned earlier) bowlers

.....keep us entertained and enriched with your thoughts as well......

I am running some backtests on the other computer, so the debates are a nice way to keep one occupied while the results are thrown out

CreditViolet · #13 13th May 2007, 03:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by amitt29

Of course good trading and EW can go hand in hand.But first one must grasp the concept.Which goes the same for trading also.
Whilst forescast is for "what if" scenarios.Trading discipline comes with practice and singularity.Which are also an integral part of anything.

What Neely etc said and did,was denial,and that is 2nd to human nature.And that they realized after many years.

Again, as I said, the debate isnt about concepts. You can quiz me about any EW concept, from Neely to Miner or any strategy that involves EW.The topic here is subjectivity.The problem with these 'what if' scenarios is that there is no probability involved. A wave labeled is nulled only after the fact, there is no given probability that a scenario will play out as expected and hence the questionmark. Is this subjectivity needed or a trader is better without it using simpler and more robust techniques? Also I will be very interested how you apply probability with respect to EW which you have been mentioning.

amitt29 · #14 13th May 2007, 03:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CreditViolet

Again, as I said, the debate isnt about concepts. You can quiz me about any EW concept, from Neely to Miner or any strategy that involves EW.The topic here is subjectivity.The problem with these 'what if' scenarios is that there is no probability involved. A wave labeled is nulled only after the fact, there is no given probability that a scenario will play out as expected and hence the questionmark. Is this subjectivity needed or a trader is better without it using simpler and more robust techniques? Also I will be very interested how you apply probability with respect to EW which you have been mentioning.

As to why u consider the "what if"scenario is improbable,I dont understand that is because markets can go either up or down.So if ur count is wrong it wud do just the opposite of ur contention.For me here it solves the problem of low probability(which ppl encounter in short term and they will also do in long term because of fractal nature of waves) which is faced by the experts.Neely faced the same problem when he encountered this.Thus he defined his own set of rigid rules,to nullify the noises.

There is always form,of course u can miss 10 -20 points while trading short term(i mean day trading)but that is offset by a huge margin by the big moves.

Week after week EW has prepared me for that.

Let me take the oppurtinty here to make another forecast

one that wud stand in good stead for traders.Positional Traders i mean.Lets see where i stand here.

The Nifty for its uptrend to remain intact must not close in the flat range or negative range for more than 3 days.I am working on something that wud narrow it down to hrly range.

kkseal · #15 13th May 2007, 03:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spiderman

Existing tools except ew are folkdance tools or primitive tools ...

I am sorry to say, but this is dogma at it's worst. In order to make an objective assessment of any method one first needs to shed any emotional attachments to the same.

And nowhere has CV said that EW is conceptually wrong, he only questions the utility & the probability of forecasting success with the same (& also the need for forecasting in the first place).

It's ok for EW proponents to disagree, but where are the logical arguments in their favour?? All i see is some emotional responses (including denouncement of other methods which doesn't establish your cause in any way).

I don't know much of EW and am hence not in a position to comment on it's utility, but as far as forecasting is concerned here's my 2 cents :

First of all, all forecasting, irrespective of the method used, is an exercise of probability and not certainty (banking on the highest probability, at best).

All profit assessments are based on the future (the future may range from the next 2 bars to the next 2 years, but it's the future nonetheless).

All trade decisions are based on the past (the past may range from the previous bar to the last 5 yrs, but it's the past nonetheless).

The only thing that happens in the present - the NOW - is the trade execution, the Entry/Exit and trade monitoring (as the future becomes the NOW with every subsequent bar/tick).

Based on the above, i can't see how one can trade/invest without some anticipation of the future.

Regards,
Kalyan.

Spiderman · #16 13th May 2007, 04:01 PM

wow I did not see spiderman 3. so donot know whether 3 villains was a cool idea or credit violet or blue idea. But my only idea was that elliott works. As far as I understand 5-3 idea is very methematical very airthmatic,very basic.
As far as subjectivity is cocerned which method is not sujective? H&s, triangles,flags or other technical indicators? The computerized trading also is done under a very subjective human mind.I even heard rakesh jhunjhunwala
saying on cnbc that P/E ratios are 100% subjective. So where is the holy grail? As far as my results with ew are concerned I am not a fool to say that I dont lose money trading? I have losing trades whether I use ew or any other tool.

CreditViolet · #17 13th May 2007, 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by amitt29

As to why u consider the "what if"scenario is improbable,I dont understand that is because markets can go either up or down.So if ur count is wrong it wud do just the opposite of ur contention.

I am not saying whether it is probable or improbable, I was only saying that the scenarios dont have any weightage, every scenario is as likely to happen and is only evident after the fact.

But the biggest challenge is when you say "if ur count is wrong it wud do just the opposite of ur contention" , because this is not necessarily the case. One can "count" wrong and have the market play out exactly according to the wrong count.

Quote:

Originally Posted by amitt29

For me here it solves the problem of low probability(which ppl encounter in short term and they will also do in long term because of fractal nature of waves) which is faced by the experts.Neely faced the same problem when he encountered this.Thus he defined his own set of rigid rules,to nullify the noises.

There is always form,of course u can miss 10 -20 points while trading short term(i mean day trading)but that is offset by a huge margin by the big moves.

Week after week EW has prepared me for that.

Let me take the oppurtinty here to make another forecast one that wud stand in good stead for traders.Positional Traders i mean.Lets see where i stand here

The Nifty for its uptrend to remain intact must not close in the flat range or negative range for more than 3 days.I am working on something that wud narrow it down to hrly range.

Here is my forecast

See attached.Its the most basic system I have, even my wife can figure it out

( No MM applied )

Compare that to all the probable scenarios that EW creates ( which I can create as well ) and compare the difference.In short, it doesnt matter at all what the market does or will do, no subjectivity, one simply gets on with the routine.This is for positional trading, for intraday there are better methods since there is more data and probabilities improve.

This is what I have been saying all along, the question is not whether anything works or doesnt work but how stress-free and objective it is in the long term given the same amount of work.

Spiderman · #18 13th May 2007, 04:11 PM

kalyan Bhai,
leave alone the dogma. which method is ojective? which element of trading is not governed by human subjective mind? who is at the core of trading. method or trader. ofcourse trader. The subjective trader. nothing else. once we understand this our trading becomes objective. that is the only
truth. give a best trading system which you call objective to two different traders and see the results. One wins and other loses. Why? because of this human subjective mind.

CreditViolet · #19 13th May 2007, 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spiderman

But my only idea was that elliott works. As far as I understand 5-3 idea is very methematical very airthmatic,very basic.

The problem is, you guys are simply saying that it works but there is no data and no numbers for that effect. Have you saved your trading logs, so can you provide some data to back that statement? Or anything else from your testing and implementation?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spiderman

As far as subjectivity is cocerned which method is not sujective? H&s, triangles,flags or other technical indicators? The computerized trading also is done under a very subjective human mind.

But the difference is that they can be tested for performance while EW cannot given it can adjust to every scenario.Furthermore, every method can be tested for randomness as well, even financial astrology and some methods of Gann.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spiderman

So where is the holy grail? As far as my results with ew are concerned I am not a fool to say that I dont lose money trading? I have losing trades whether I use ew or any other tool.

Well to repeat myself again, noone is trying to discover the elusive grail. The question is of utility as I have said in my previous posts.

amitt29 · #20 13th May 2007, 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CreditViolet

I am not saying whether it is probable or improbable, I was only saying that the scenarios dont have any weightage, every scenario is as likely to happen and is only evident after the fact.

But the biggest challenge is when you say "if ur count is wrong it wud do just the opposite of ur contention" , because this is not necessarily the case. One can "count" wrong and have the market play out exactly according to the wrong count.

Here is my forecast

See attached.Its the most basic system I have, even my wife can figure it out

( No MM applied )

Compare that to all the probable scenarios that EW creates ( which I can create as well ) and compare the difference.In short, it doesnt matter at all what the market does or will do, no subjectivity, one simply gets on with the routine.This is for positional trading, for intraday there are better methods since there is more data and probabilities improve.

This is what I have been saying all along, the question is not whether anything works or doesnt work but how stress-free and objective it is in the long term given the same amount of work.

Y do u have to bring bhabhiji all the time here.

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