Elliott Wave theory - why does it work?

amitt29 · #51 11th May 2007, 06:54 PM

EW works. Period

The problem lies with the text that is available(ie Prechter,Neely etc).The knowledge that they provide is their perception(which is absolutely wrong).Infact i can categorically say that why such softwares like RET,AGet give different counts is because of the knowledge that was made available to the software designers.The knowledge is incomplete.
Even with this limited knowledge(perhaps i shud rephrase it to incomplete knowledge)the profits that can be made is enormous(due to probability theory).

Case in my point is my suggestion to karthick long back that with time even caldaro will have to chnage his count on BSE which he did.This was b4 december when i wrote to him about market topping out.Numerous times in recent past i have made successful calls during intraday and projecting turn points,to some of my trader friends here.

Its the lack of application in thinking why the market is, as it is, and the incomplete material that is available to the public that is responsible for EW bashing and nothing else.

Trust me,it helps when u r prepared and when u know b4 others whats going to happen.

marcus · #52 11th May 2007, 07:06 PM

hmmmmmmmm definitely a case of the "Emperor's New Clothes", for those of you who want to know the truth behind EW please read the fable by Hans Christian Andersen, I assure you its a better read that all the EW books put together period.

amitt29 · #53 11th May 2007, 07:41 PM

I am editing my message as i dont wish to indulge into something which is not second to my nature.

I can understand ppl's disillusionment with something, its quite natural.So if i have in anyway hurt anyones feelings,however inadvertently,I apologise for it.And request others to specifically look at Technical aspect of any theory.

lokanathpai · #54 11th May 2007, 08:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CreditViolet

Great to be back ( Where did I go b/w?

)

About EW and other esoteric studies, here is my 2 cents

Salute CV.

It worth more than 200 dollars !

Yes all these charts are hum-bug.. I agree with you..

karthikmarar · #55 11th May 2007, 11:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CreditViolet

Great to be back ( Where did I go b/w?

)

About EW and other esoteric studies, here is my 2 cents

............. Lets thank the Almighty for small mercies, it would have been difficult to make a buck otherwise.

Dear CV

Excellant...clear and precise.. the last sentence sums it all

(ahhh.. you do know to express things in simple and clear terms ..

)

warm regards

Karthik

uasish · #56 11th May 2007, 11:30 PM

I would be oblidged if anybody proves by evidence EW is a backwass,actually then he/she will help me in my development.Any backtesting report ?
True i am unable to codify the signals based on EW ,i have only my experience to fall back upon & it's usefullness in my trading.I have relpied to Ajay's post by giving DOCUMENTED (all my Buy posts in numerous stocks are in this forum to be scrutinised with difinite dt & time) RECORDS,oxy was right that i have not mentioned about the losing trades taken on the basis of EW
analysis.Here i have drawn his attention to my posts dated even year back ,in A.Get thread,(when the question at that time was whether Metastock or A.Get is superior)there i had expressed my views of EW ,which is the same then & now,that is: if given a choice by MS between 2 buys signal ,i always fall back on EW (with my subjective limited knowledge) to select 1. Allocating same amount to both may take care in that situation,but the expected Exit will never be same.
Believing then(more than a year) & now has given me a confidence & comfort in my trading style,improved my Exits.
Passing rudimentary level comments just satisfies an ego or advertise an attitude but never guides a dumb trader like me (i am dumb becoz i take lots of time ,like a last bencher,to belive anything even it can be a gospel from the gr8 Emperor).As i dont want to miss an oppurtunity to learn ,to improve my trading balance sheet.
Peoples has enlightened me to backtesting as CV has shaken me with Datas kinetic/dynamic character,as Ashish enriched me with patterns.
This has improved my performance.Plz do not miss any oppurtunity.

kkseal · #57 12th May 2007, 01:47 AM

Right Asish. Anything that helps you in making your trading decisions and trading better, more profitably, is fine. And it's good to have a second and a third filter for your trades. In fact, EW looks (conceptually) tempting to me as a third filter for my trades, but won't be able to handle the subjectivity & discretion. I am a hopelessly lopsided left-brained (with limited grey matter) person.

Regards,
Kalyan.

oxusmorouz · #58 12th May 2007, 08:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by uasish

I would be oblidged if anybody proves by evidence EW is a backwass,actually then he/she will help me in my development.Any backtesting report ?

Sir, allow me to re-interpret this: (again you must not mistake me)

Basis of arguement: Rat poison helps cure common cold. (Let us assume that this type of rat poision is too complex in structure that labratories have not advanced enough to test it)

Doctor's arguement: "I am going to distribute this rat poision as a medicine to everyone who has common cold. If I have enough casualties whose death with proof that the death was caused by poisoning (remember, it cannot be studied in labs, yet...so there is no way to prove it), I shall stop it. Otherwise, with lack of evidence, I am not going to stop in my venture to eradicate common cold (intention though, was not to kill people and he truly believes this rat posion is helpful)!" . Knowing he is a doctor and has come out with a magical formula to cure common cold (which is considered terrible
by many), people fall prey for it.
By the time science developes, casualties would be quite high

uasish · #59 12th May 2007, 11:19 AM

OK be happy with your belief (that this is rat poisioning) let me be happy with my belief (it will cure cold) ,what r you going to derive ,with lack of evidence ? i have been repeatedly telling you this suits my comfort level of "Selection" & i am also not disputing you may be right (time will only tell),but EW gives me an edge (this i belive),so repeatedly bashing this only satisfying your ego.
Without evidence ,or established knowledge of non performance, my cognitive or intutive logic structure acts as a firewall against the Emperor's gospel.

elliottwaveanalyst · #60 12th May 2007, 11:26 AM

My thoughts - once again...

Somehow there is a feeling by many people that trying EW can lead you to destruction. This need not be the case. Why dont you just set aside say 10% of your capital and trade using good EW principles? In the worst case, you will lose only 10% of your capital.

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