Elliott Wave theory - why does it work?

uasish · #91 14th May 2007, 03:33 PM

Look at the volume surge in last 30 mins in Eveready Industries ,it actually closed (-)ve 7.02 when to-day Nifty (+)ve by 57.40 points.

uasish · #92 14th May 2007, 08:30 PM

The rat study

The observer-expectancy effect (also called the experimenter-expectancy effect, observer
effect, or experimenter effect) is a cognitive bias found in science that
occurs when a researcher expects a given result and therefore unconsciously manipulates an
experiment in order to find it.

Because the observer-expectancy effect can skew the results of experiments (especially on
human subjects), double-blind methodology is used in attempts to eliminate the effect.

An example of the observer-expectancy effect is demonstrated in music backtracking, in which
hidden verbal messages are said to be audible when a recording is played backwards. Some
people expect to hear hidden messages when reversing songs, and therefore hear the messages,
but to others it sounds like nothing more than random sounds. Often when a song is played
backwards, a listener will fail to notice the "hidden" lyrics until they are explicitly
pointed out, after which they are obvious. Other prominent examples include facilitated
communication, dowsing, and applied kinesiology.

Clever Hans - a horse who seemed to be performing arithmetic and other amazing skills, but
in reality took cues transmitted unconsciously by his trainer and observers.
Placebo - an inert medicine or preparation which works because the patients thinks it will
N-rays - imaginary radiation
Pygmalion effect - teachers who expect higher achievement from some children, actually get it
Reflexivity (social theory)

So on & so forth.

Asish

CreditViolet · #93 14th May 2007, 08:55 PM

Nobel Laureate Kenneth Arrow was convinced that people overestimated the importance of information available to them. He had been examining long-range weather forecasts by military meteorologists and found that their forecasts were no better than random forecasts pulled from a hat. The forecasters agreed and asked to be relieved of the task. A reply to their request came; "The Commanding General is well aware that the forecasts are no good. However, he needs them for planning purposes". - from Against the Gods - The Remarkable Story of Risk

kkseal · #94 14th May 2007, 09:22 PM

My word, what's the matter with Uasish? He seems to have gone into some kind of 'hyper' mode!

Calm down my friend. Be careful with your medication.

I haven't read all your posts. Will do so tonight - slowly (will take some time to digest!)

And congratulations for that wonderful Eveready trade.

Regards,
Kalyan.

uasish · #95 14th May 2007, 10:12 PM

kkseal,
U r right.Gone in fast forward mode.Has to concentrate more on further System Developments.Thks for pointing out.

Asish

kkseal · #96 14th May 2007, 10:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by uasish

Pygmalion effect - teachers who expect higher achievement from some children, actually get it

Hmmm .... So incorporate the 'Pygmalion effect' in your system and expect higher achievement from your capital

winstonn · #97 14th May 2007, 11:19 PM

Hello all,

hats! to those who beleive that EW's work.
i am still a KID in elliott and aspire to learn from u all.

Can anyone of you explain my one doubt.

Is this Recovery on markets a new impulse or the start of New Leg of some higher degree correction?

waiting for ur valuable expert opinion!

~Winston

FxGlider · #98 14th May 2007, 11:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bvpraveen

Hello all,

Try to go through the last three chapters in the below tutorial. It is very interesting and neatly explained about:-
--why Elliott Wave works.
--why markets repeats in a repetitive "form"
--Elliott wave principle and natures law
--etc

Even conventional TA practitioners can go through it, treating it as an article. It will be interesting, guys.

http://www.elliottwave.com/tutorial/Default.aspx
[You should sign up for reading it, I guess.]

Praveen.

-----------------------------------

Yes, the tutorial is excellent. I did it a couple years ago.

Elliottwave analysis is an outstanding tool -- but it requires considerable study and is generally not meant for public consumption.

It has numerous critics and haters, but most of these individuals have not even mastered "how to draw trendlines" -- so its best not to argue with them.

There is a way to harness the power of EW without suffering the penalties that elliotticians (and their followers) suffer, namely numerous bad calls & big losses:

"never go against momentum regardless what the wavecount appears to be"

Why? Because in the final analysis the only truth in the markets is MOMENTUM. Very often elliotticians cannot correctly decipher the move until AFTER it completes -- but MOMENTUM will always tell you the "state"

When the wavecount agrees with MOMENTUM, you won't lose.

Try your mettle -- go to my thread on Bombay Sensex wavecount and input your count.

kkseal · #99 15th May 2007, 01:29 AM

Here's a stupid question from an EW novice to the experts :-

Is there a remote possibility that this is the 4th wave which had actually started from 8th Dec 06 and has since evolved as an irregular correction.

Ok i know i am probably wrong, but just curious.

BTW, what are the other possibilities?

Regards,
Kalyan.

oilman5 · #**100** 15th May 2007, 06:08 AM

hi ,here is a KISS for ewt ameteur.
see mtpredictor.presently software available in indian market. its scanner
does check all candidate..also calculate r/r ratio.
it may help u as cv rightly points importance of making money by a trader.

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