Million $ question

winstonn · #1 26th March 2007, 05:50 PM

Hello friends,

The universal law of reactions and rally govern all the markets. Isn't it ?

In an uptrend , stocks or commo or any financial instruments react and then resume uptrend.

Same as in downtrend, there are rallies and down move continues.

Now the best trading strategy would be to buy reactions in an uptrend and sell rallies in a down trend

But is there any high probability way to buy reaction or sell rally?
the apparent reactions or rallies are many times not a part of trend and traders are traped because of sideways and contradictory moves.

Yes , i know by this time many of you will say:

Elliotticians: look at waves 2 and 4----always subjective

Fib Fans: retracements.----dont know which retarcement market will resume trend, and if there is retracement of any significance...will the swing break result genuine move??

Classical TA: indicators and patterns. consantly change their systems.

Modern TA: mixture of above.-----all above difficulties

and many other systems.

But as any market trend for 25-30% time, it becomes really difficult task to identify real reaction and rally in any time frame.

Is there a simple rule based trading to buy a reaction or sell rally which will result into true upmove or true down move and can this be done on consistent basis.

Regards,
Winston

kenneth · #2 26th March 2007, 06:28 PM

Million $ Anwer

Pullbacks Winston

Regards
ken

bvpraveen · #3 26th March 2007, 07:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by winstonn

......
Is there a simple rule based trading to buy a reaction or sell rally which will result into true upmove or true down move and can this be done on consistent basis.

......

Isn't it this is what everyone is looking for to achieve the above said thing, fondly called 'The Holy Grail'?

Praveen.

Agilent · #4 26th March 2007, 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by winstonn

Hello friends,

The universal law of reactions and rally govern all the markets. Isn't it ?

In an uptrend , stocks or commo or any financial instruments react and then resume uptrend.

Same as in downtrend, there are rallies and down move continues.

Now the best trading strategy would be to buy reactions in an uptrend and sell rallies in a down trend

But is there any high probability way to buy reaction or sell rally?
the apparent reactions or rallies are many times not a part of trend and traders are traped because of sideways and contradictory moves.

Yes , i know by this time many of you will say:

Elliotticians: look at waves 2 and 4----always subjective

Fib Fans: retracements.----dont know which retarcement market will resume trend, and if there is retracement of any significance...will the swing break result genuine move??

Classical TA: indicators and patterns. consantly change their systems.

Modern TA: mixture of above.-----all above difficulties

and many other systems.

But as any market trend for 25-30% time, it becomes really difficult task to identify real reaction and rally in any time frame.

Is there a simple rule based trading to buy a reaction or sell rally which will result into true upmove or true down move and can this be done on consistent basis.

Regards,
Winston

In other words, u want an easier and faster way to get richer than Bill Gates !

Sorry, pal ... even Bejan Daruwala will not be able to help.

Read Edwards and Magee, and u will understand there is no foolproof method to always get it right in stocks

AGILENT

PS Sorry to digress from yr topic, but ..talking abt Bejan and the fellow hundreds of astrologers and Tarot Readers etc... what do they have to say now abt the cricket Debacle ... not even one can claim ..' I told u so ' ...

aca_trader · #5 26th March 2007, 11:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by winstonn

Hello friends,

The universal law of reactions and rally govern all the markets. Isn't it ?

In an uptrend , stocks or commo or any financial instruments react and then resume uptrend.

Same as in downtrend, there are rallies and down move continues.

Now the best trading strategy would be to buy reactions in an uptrend and sell rallies in a down trend

But is there any high probability way to buy reaction or sell rally?
the apparent reactions or rallies are many times not a part of trend and traders are traped because of sideways and contradictory moves.

Yes , i know by this time many of you will say:

Elliotticians: look at waves 2 and 4----always subjective

Fib Fans: retracements.----dont know which retarcement market will resume trend, and if there is retracement of any significance...will the swing break result genuine move??

Classical TA: indicators and patterns. consantly change their systems.

Modern TA: mixture of above.-----all above difficulties

and many other systems.

But as any market trend for 25-30% time, it becomes really difficult task to identify real reaction and rally in any time frame.

Is there a simple rule based trading to buy a reaction or sell rally which will result into true upmove or true down move and can this be done on consistent basis.

Regards,
Winston

There is one very simple method and that is called trendline.
No pattern is able to distinguish between pullbacks and reversals.

Best Regards,
--Ashish

Agilent · #6 26th March 2007, 11:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aca_trader

There is one very simple method and that is called trendline.
No pattern is able to distinguish between pullbacks and reversals.

Best Regards,
--Ashish

Hi ashish .. my friend

But is that method foolproof ... or lets say ... what's the success rate ?

For example... what happens to the trendline during the unfolding of an H& S reversal

karthikmarar · #7 26th March 2007, 11:38 PM

[quote=winstonn;83324]Hello friends,

Is there a simple rule based trading to buy a reaction or sell rally which will result into true upmove or true down move and can this be done on consistent basis.

QUOTE]

If there was one, the stock market would not exist ..

Agilent · #8 26th March 2007, 11:48 PM

[quote=karthikmarar;83366]

Quote:

Originally Posted by winstonn

Hello friends,

Is there a simple rule based trading to buy a reaction or sell rally which will result into true upmove or true down move and can this be done on consistent basis.

QUOTE]

If there was one, the stock market would not exist ..

well said my friend

aca_trader · #9 27th March 2007, 12:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Agilent

Hi ashish .. my friend

But is that method foolproof ... or lets say ... what's the success rate ?

For example... what happens to the trendline during the unfolding of an H& S reversal

Well! anybody who experiements can see the results. Those are fascinating in trending markets and as we are talking about buying on dips or selling on reaction rallies, non-trending markets are out of question.
BTW, There is nothing foolproof. Whipsaws will certainly be encountered but they will be far and few.

In a H&S formation period, the trendline will be broken after formation of the head and thus one will get an early entry with a SL at the last pivot (The Head).

winstonn · #10 27th March 2007, 12:49 AM

Hi Ashish,

i agree with you, with some refinement for trendlines, there could be high probable set up.

Price is wife ,,,,indicators and other artificial things is mistress.
Tell me whom you will trsut most?????

Well, there is no fullproof system for trendlines, but i have started doing the work for refinement of trendlines so that false breaks could be avoided on all possible time frames and keeping in mind the importance of multiple time frame.

Regards,
Winston

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