Candles, Volume, and OBV- Stay On the Right Side!

oxusmorouz · #21 25th March 2007, 08:08 PM

Subjective analysis : Anything that can't be coded into a computer program as a "rule" and backtested with historical data.

Hope that clarifies the confusion,Sunil

uasish · #22 25th March 2007, 11:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oxusmorouz

Subjective analysis : Anything that can't be coded into a computer program as a "rule" and backtested with historical data.

Hope that clarifies the confusion,Sunil

oxusmorouz,
He knows this ,he wanted to revert back after sometime.

Asish

Linus · #23 26th March 2007, 02:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oxusmorouz

Subjective analysis : Anything that can't be coded into a computer program as a "rule" and backtested with historical data.

Hope that clarifies the confusion,Sunil

Hi Oxy,

Of course I know that dear, I will come back later, and would like to put the same question to Winstonn on his buy Monday sell Friday strategy. Was that not subjective? Besides, when I asked him whether this strategy was back tested, there was no answer from him!!

Anyway, I will surely come back on this tomorrow.

Good night Sir,

ss

Linus · #24 26th March 2007, 02:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hemander

hi sunil,
Currently i am working on OBV .Can you tell me something more on OBV theory alonwith the charts.I wolud be very grateful to you if you help me out.

regards,

hemander

Hi Hemander,

Thank you. BTW, have you checked the link on OBV in one of my post in this thread? Anyway, I will come up with something for you.

Regards,

ss

winstonn · #25 26th March 2007, 09:14 AM

Hi sunil,

Buy Monday Sell Friday was a not a good method, i admit. This was a thought of mine and i had framed objective rules for it if you go through those posts.

As i did not backtest it , i had clearly mentioned that we would be looking for the forward testing and would wait and watch for the performance of the strategy.

See , am not challenging your method, but for making real money one should have objective method that works consistently in any market for years and have atleast more than 60% success rate.

Any book can give me the kind of explanation you have given, but it is really challenging to design a objective based srtategy from your explanation.

Accept all this positively as a way to grow in this 5 % success rate Trading Business.

Regards,
Winston

Linus · #26 26th March 2007, 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by winstonn

Hi sunil,

Buy Monday Sell Friday was a not a good method, i admit. This was a thought of mine and i had framed objective rules for it if you go through those posts.

As i did not backtest it , i had clearly mentioned that we would be looking for the forward testing and would wait and watch for the performance of the strategy.

See , am not challenging your method, but for making real money one should have objective method that works consistently in any market for years and have atleast more than 60% success rate.

Any book can give me the kind of explanation you have given, but it is really challenging to design a objective based srtategy from your explanation.

Accept all this positively as a way to grow in this 5 % success rate Trading Business.

Regards,
Winston

Hi Winston,

Cool it boy! Yes, indeed, it is difficult and challenging, and my post is kinda a starter / for anybody who wants to know the basics behind filtering candlesticks with a volume based indicator. There are many newcomers on this board and they will I hope surely find this interesting.

This of course can be seen in any book, or articles, as you have rightly said, but then we won't need a forum like this in the first place.

Regards,

ss

uasish · #27 26th March 2007, 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sunil saranjame

Hi Winston,

Cool it boy! Yes, indeed, it is difficult and challenging, and my post is kinda a starter / for anybody who wants to know the basics behind filtering candlesticks with a volume based indicator. There are many newcomers on this board and they will I hope surely find this interesting.

This of course can be seen in any book, or articles, as you have rightly said, but then we won't need a forum like this in the first place.

Regards,

ss

Sunil,
System based trading is not the best.However objective view is 100% necessary to protect us from our Fear/Greed influenced clouded mind.No System based trading has been proved till date to be THE best,even the Neural Network based Logics ,(More objective becoz it constantly improvises,duplicating an objective human brain) for any Trade initiation
is yet to establish (even after 8 yrs of use in Capital Mkt) its supremacy.
Hence Devoid of Fear/Greed ,machines do not Trade better than
best.

Asish

oxusmorouz · #28 26th March 2007, 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by winstonn

Hi sunil,
See , am not challenging your method, but for making real money one should have objective method that works consistently in any market for years and have atleast more than 60% success rate.

60%? Most trend following systems have a 40-45% winning trades (I'm not using the term "accuracy" here) and yet generate a positive expectancy per trade. An example of a simple macd crossover test (which I had posted earlier)
http://www.traderji.com/attachments/...ed-report-.txt

Linus · #29 26th March 2007, 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by uasish

Sunil,
System based trading is not the best.However objective view is 100% necessary to protect us from our Fear/Greed influenced clouded mind.No System based trading has been proved till date to be THE best,even the Neural Network based Logics ,(More objective becoz it constantly improvises,duplicating an objective human brain) for any Trade initiation
is yet to establish (even after 8 yrs of use in Capital Mkt) its supremacy.
Hence Devoid of Fear/Greed ,machines do not Trade better than
best.

Asish

Hi, Asish/Oxy,

Agreed.

One needs to take empirical decisions, and that again brings emotions into system trading.

Regards and thank you guys and also Winston and everybody who have contributed to this thread.

Cya,
ss

winstonn · #30 26th March 2007, 05:14 PM

Hi oxus,

40-45% success rate and yet profit per trade is good. But i hope this requires excellent money management since you 55-60% trades will be wrong!!!!

See the below simple mathematics:

1 * 1 = 1

1 * 2 = 2

1* 3 = 3

and now:

2* 1 = 2

2 * 2 = 4

and so on.

What i mean to say is that the profit you get from any trade is

success % * avg profit per trade.

now you have 40- 45 % success rate and good avg profit.
But world's best traders not only have good avg profit , money management,
but also incredible success rate.

Eg. Larry Williams made 1.1 million$ in a year with only $ 10,000.

Now this profit is not possible by your 45% success rate.

He has excellent success rate * excellent avg profit.= 1.1 million$ from $10,000 in a year.

When he could do so ( he also started from strach )
Why we could not???????

So in conclusion if your success rate is less than 50% , you will make avg profit ( not excellent ) and it is possible that you might miss the Big profitable trade ( it's probability is less than 50% ) because of whatever reasons and this could reduce your profitability.

So , we as trader should strive hard for excellent success rate + excellent avg profit.

Regards,
Winston

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