Does Technical Analysis Really Work??

lokanathpai · #1 6th February 2007, 05:34 PM

I have spent hours together reading many books on technical Analysis.

Tried all sorts of trading systems and followed scrupulosly money management technique etc.

Alas nothing works.

OR

It works as good as from which side of the bed I gets up in the moring

I am wondering there are so many followers of tech Analysis, whether they are really making money solely attributed to technical analysis.

It is better to toss a coin and place a trade instead of breaking our head on so many graphs and patterns.

Traderji I know you will be laughing at this statements, but for me it is true

-- Lokanath

bvpraveen · #2 6th February 2007, 06:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lokanathpai

.....
It is better to toss a coin and place a trade instead of breaking our head on so many graphs and patterns.
....

Praveen.

Bullet · #3 6th February 2007, 06:27 PM

What do you mean?

If Technical Analysis doesn’t work according to you, than do what?
Do Trade BLINDLY.

oxusmorouz · #4 6th February 2007, 06:39 PM

What seems as constraints to some is actually an oppurtunity to another. It depends on how well it is used. Mere study techniques will not help

CreditViolet · #5 6th February 2007, 06:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lokanathpai

I have spent hours together reading many books on technical Analysis.

Tried all sorts of trading systems and followed scrupulosly money management technique etc.

Its not the reading that counts, but the testing

CV

Linus · #6 6th February 2007, 06:59 PM

Loknathpai,

I agree with CV 100% about testing. Before moving on to the 'next system' did you check why the first one failed? I don't think one can go on like that for ever! and then say 'nothing works!' That is self defeating.

ss

lokanathpai · #7 6th February 2007, 07:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saxena_sir

and some advice if you always want to win than it is very tough to do that.
coz even a good trading system can go against a trade a few times.

May be I was chosing wrong trading system always.

But back testing also I have seen results showing successfull trades in the range of 30% - 40%. But one has tro simulate actual trading situation, means, I am doing end-of-day searches, the buy generated today may not be valid tomorrow. The system will give numerous trades, it all trades are taken, one will need to rob FORT KNOX.

And if only one or two trades chosen, LO, that trade goofs up

lokanathpai · #8 6th February 2007, 07:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CreditViolet

Its not the reading that counts, but the testing

CV

Hi CV

May be following the foot steps of some professional technical Analyst may help me. But how it could be possible.

Do not tell me follow some recommendations. I have done that also

)
I put my money with ACE Technical Analyst 'SURESH KRISHNAMURTHY' of InvestTech. LOL LOL. CV being Bangalorean knows about this guy.

I am following the 'SYSTEM IMPLEMENTATION EXERCISE'. The returns are not impressive. Mutual Funds give better returns than those systems.

So the world is same across the globe. It is not different than what I am seeing.

Okay.

Can anybody, disclose the system they are following and announce the trade entered by them using that system and rationale of the entry, and let them show making money out of it.

Yeah it is the same thing what 'SYSTEM IMPLEMENTATION EXERCISE' people are doing.

oxusmorouz · #9 6th February 2007, 08:04 PM

I hope you understand that some traders in this forum are system followers.
I'm no expert but I do wish to disclose my viewpoint.

There is a difference between the following:
1) Losing, and losing on a consistent basis
2) Building your own trading system and choosing other's systems
3) Using a trend follower and a zig zag indicator.

-->The trades disappeared because the trading system you used had a zig zag indicator.
--> Why don't you stick onto a few selected securities? The chances of losing in a consistent basis is relatively low...if not, impossible. You can diversify this list as you become more experienced.
--> No one likes to disclose their trading system/trades. It isn't nice to ask them that.

Oxy

asnavale · #10 6th February 2007, 08:26 PM

Hi Lokanath,

In SYSTEM IMPLEMENTATION EXCERCISE we are trying to find out the limitations of the systems, the selection criteria the validity of the signals generated etc. We are posting the results everyday so that others can follow the various stages the excercise is going through and also for other members to contribute by pointing out any mistakes we are making and suggest alternatives. The excercise is not complete yet. It is "Live Paper Trading". This is different from Back Testing. As it is in paper testing mode, you are not expected to take real trades based on the daily results. That is why we have a Disclaimer attached to each post. This excercise will continue till a reasonably good strategy emerges.

Regards

-Anant

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