win/loss ratio: !

Hi all,

This is a small poll to know what is win loss ratio of traders here in general.

Amarnath

Good initiative ... but I think u have got the math wrong

Lots of us who have more winners than losers will not have any option to tick

For instance, if I have have 3 winners to 2 losers, my win loss ratio is 150 % , whereas yr best option is 90 %

So pl reframe yr post

AGILENT

may be and just 3 samples to assume is not good a sampling technique and i think its not easy to keep any thing over 60 to 70% over long run in trading, may be i am wrong again but its just my personal opinion

You have not understood me ..

If I have 30 winners and 20 losers in a year ( lets say ... and 3 against 2 means the same) according to me the win loss ratio is 150 % .

But according to you , is it 30 /50, ie 60 % ?

Be careful how u define the ratio ( u probably meant winners / total deals when u selected the slabs , and not winners/losers)

Got me ?

AGILENT

Yes clear and understood

So how shd we interpret the slabs .... by yr method or by mine

I mean , 90 % 'Win/loss' ratio means 90 winners out of 100 deals (your intention)
or,
90 winners against 100 losers (my interpretation)


If you want your definition to stay, then you have to change the terminology from :

win/loss ratio

to

win/total deals ratio


If on the other hand you want your terminolgy to remain , then I'm afraid you are leaving the poll open only to losers (since the max win / loss ratio has been specified at 90 %)


The choice is yrs

AGILENT

@amarnath,

I use the following 3 ratios to describe shortly the result characteristics of a trading system.

1. trade ratio (TR)
TR = winning trades / all trades

2. pay-off ratio (PR)
PR = average win of winning trade / average win of a losing trade

3. (most important) profitability index (PX), sometimes also called profit factor:
PX = (winning trades x average win of a trade) / (losing trades x average loss of a trade)

Example system result of a year:
...winning trades: 100
...losing trades: 150
...average win of a winning trade: 50 Index points
...average loss of a losing trade: 25 Index points

So
...TR is 0,40
...PR is 2,00
...PX is 1,33

Generally a small TR is not too important, if PR is big enough.
A value for PX above 1 show that the system is profitable. But there are enough reasons, that you shouldn't trade even such "so-called profitable" systems...!!!

For deeper analysis I use monte carlo simulations.

bye,
zentrader

Thanks Zen

Amarnath probably wanted to specify this ... but has called it win/loss ratio in error

Better for him to clarify (Amar ... r u there?) , so that all participants interpret the ratio identically

AGILENT

Any ambiguity (or ambivalence) will cause problems ....for example, u may be aware Shilpa Shetty was almost voted out in Big Brother because the voting public misinterpreted the telephonic votes for her to be saved as the votes for her to be ousted ... Trust the Brits to goof up in such a 'reciprocal' (as in 1 divided by .. ) manner !

Sorry for my misunderstanding on theory that i understood TR as win/loss instead of win/total deal ratio. Also i request to shed more light in monte carlo stimulation techniques and tools avaliable for it. Good looks Good trading to all.

Also i love to discuss more on money managment stuffs than designing a strategy or a system which is curical for ultimate success in trading