Pattern Trading

Luckytrader · #**291** 24th March 2007, 12:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aca_trader

Hi Lucky trader!
Thanks for your kind words about the blog.
NIce identification of H&S top.

However, I have a doubt about pullback. Earlier when price was rising towards the neck line, the volume was low and there were chances that the rally is just a pullback. However, after the prices have crossed neck-line, the volume has gone up and hence the pull-back is doubtful now.

However, if stock closes below the neck line, the pullback will be confimed and one can short the stock with SL at previous pivotal high.

One should however be cautious and if silverline makes a higher pivotal low, profit should be booked without waiting for stop-loss being hit.

Best REgards,
--Ashish
http://tradingtalks.blogspot.com

Thanks for your views.

I will regularly visit ur blog
Really very informative.

Regards,
Luckytrader

aca_trader · #**292** 24th March 2007, 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by birdinfo

Market timing to switch in asset classes by Mebane T. Faber

The system is as follows:
BUY RULE
Buy when monthly price > 10-month SMA.
SELL RULE
Sell and move to cash when monthly price < 10-month SMA.
1. All entry and exit prices are on the day of the signal at the close.
2. All data series are total return series including dividends, updated monthly.
3. Cash returns are estimated with 90-day commercial paper, and margin rates.
4. Taxes, commissions, and slippage are excluded

SMA - Simple moving average.

What is your comment on this? you may also like to give Buy-Hold-Sell recos alongwith the pattern as this may more useful to forum visitors like me.

10 month SMA is a fairly long-term MA and may contain lot of noise in the market. Hence, itvmay suitable for buy and hold investors.
However, the logical choice after a negative signal should be to short the trade instead of sitting in cash.

About buy-hold-sell recos, if anybody has questions about any specific stock, I would be glad to answer.

birdinfo · #**293** 24th March 2007, 12:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aca_trader

10 month SMA is a fairly long-term MA and may contain lot of noise in the market. Hence, itvmay suitable for buy and hold investors.
However, the logical choice after a negative signal should be to short the trade instead of sitting in cash.

About buy-hold-sell recos, if anybody has questions about any specific stock, I would be glad to answer.

What is you view of NIFTY i.e. level around mid May 2007?

aca_trader · #**294** 24th March 2007, 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by birdinfo

What is you view of NIFTY i.e. level around mid May 2007?

Sorry no prediction involving timeline. That part I leave to soothsayers.
I know and can tell only what may happen to price if certain behaviour is exhibited by it.

hapgo77 · #**295** 27th March 2007, 04:17 PM

Hi Ashish,

Your thread is very useful and keep up the good work buddy

Please provide your sell/hold reco for

1) 100 shares of Infosys at average price of 2157
2) 50 shares of Bajaj auto at 2525

Rgds

birdinfo · #**296** 27th March 2007, 06:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aca_trader

Sorry no prediction involving timeline. That part I leave to soothsayers.
I know and can tell only what may happen to price if certain behaviour is exhibited by it.

That is the reason I asked your opinion in Mar end for the month of May 2007 i.e. the pattern recognition for just 45-60 days in timeline according to the behaviour of NIFTY.I am asking from smoothsayer and not the soothsayer.

It is Okay if do not wish to share your opinion on this.

aca_trader · #**297** 27th March 2007, 08:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hapgo77

Hi Ashish,

Your thread is very useful and keep up the good work buddy

Please provide your sell/hold reco for

1) 100 shares of Infosys at average price of 2157
2) 50 shares of Bajaj auto at 2525

Rgds

Hi!

Thanks for your nice words.

Bajaj Auto:- It's a hold. SL should be 2400. If your risk appetite is more, you can hold till 2350, not beyond that. If it breaches 2600, the target would be 2800.
The stock is currently moving in a range of 2400-2600, hence you may also decide to purchase calls when stock reverses from 2400 and liquidate them @ 2600 and adopt the same strategy for Long puts when stock starts falling from 2600. Else you may write puts @ 2400 and write calls @ 2600. These option methods will help you in earning cash while still holding the stock.

INfosys:-
Infosys had a breakout from the triangle on upper side but after two days' fall, it's back to the boundries of the pattern. If it goes below 2000, liquidate your current position and short the stock.

Best Regards,
--Ashish

aca_trader · #**298** 27th March 2007, 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by birdinfo

That is the reason I asked your opinion in Mar end for the month of May 2007 i.e. the pattern recognition for just 45-60 days in timeline according to the behaviour of NIFTY.I am asking from smoothsayer and not the soothsayer.

It is Okay if do not wish to share your opinion on this.

There is pattern in NIFTY at the moment which can make such a forecast. BTW, what Vedas are saying about NIFTY level in May?

birdinfo · #**299** 27th March 2007, 08:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aca_trader

There is pattern in NIFTY at the moment which can make such a forecast. BTW, what Vedas are saying about NIFTY level in May?

Gunn Theory and Panch Tattva Theory assessment are in agreement now and indicate the same situation.You are third vote in this forecast.Let us see how it unfolds.

birdinfo

aca_trader · #**300** 29th March 2007, 09:32 AM

This is what happens when rupee appreciates.

Best Regards,
--Ashish
http://tradingtalks.blogspot.com

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