Some Good Steals...

hi
i m a beginner reading your posts regularly, pl suggest me some moderete shares in which i can invest. Being a starter shall i directly go to intraday trading.

Hi Anthony,
NTPC you've come in quite high. The concern is the long bar on Thursday last where OHLC was 133.75, 140, 131, 132.25. This is an an exhaustion bar which occurs after an up-trend where the price touches an unsustainable high and closes below the open, usually close to the low. The next bar, meaning Friday the price closes lower at 130.75. So now there is possibly a period of a pullback for the near term on the cards. 128-125-122 is a suport line and let's see how the price pans out in the near term, so track and update. NTPC is still hot though, being in a favoured sector.
Raj Spinning, there is no call for entry here as it appears to be in the midst of an erratic correction with no clear trend in either direction, though the weekly chart suggests some underlying strength which would be confirmed at a close above 128-132-135. A stop at 115 may seem deep, but this is what I would go with as this is a strong monthly support.
Sanjivani, at 47.65, unlike Raj Spinning, after testing 92-94 levels during July-Sept is in a clear downtrend correction and precariously close to a crucial support at 45. At this point 43 would be s/l. A move above 54-59-64 would be an indication that it's changing direction.
Petronet has support at 56-57 and s/l below 53-54. A close above 66-67 would look good. It's a resonably defensive counter to be in for the mid-long term.
IDBI at 82 does not give a clear indication of a reversal yet. In an ongoing downwards move, 76 may form a strong support and below this is s/l. Above 95-101 would bring some strength.
Arvind Mills is a favourite yo-yo stock in the derivatives section and has been under a lot of pressure lately. It's obviously shorted at every rise. The correction may be near completion, and a close above 105 would confirm this. 90 is a crucial recent bottom and may be treated as s/l.
Bongaigaon too is testing a critical support now at 67. There is no saying where and when it'll perk up. Above 77 would gring it into another good support area.
Samtex needs to move above 36-39 first and then deal with 44-45 before it inspires confidence. The corrective phase since July may be over at 24-25 levels. Clearing 35-39-45 would clarify this. 25 is s/l.

Tata Tele has been in news lately, but I wouldn't suggest this to my enemy, nor IFCI.
Reliance Cap Ven and Energy Ven both should do very well and are a buy for the mid-long term.

Anthony my friend, I admire your courage even if I don't quite comprehend why you would be drawn to contrarian investing in a raging bull market.
I guess we are all made differently, eh?
All the best.

Hi dinkerj...you are another diehard contrarian player!
GujNRE appears to have made a bottom at 81 recently. Acid test is 100-105 area.
Teledata is touching base at an important support now and there is 16 lower still. This is s/l.
IDBI, please do look at the previous post.
Surya Roshni is in a descinding triangle mode and a break above 72-73 with volume is what we need to see here.
Ceat at 64 has just broken below the important support at 68. 60 area is the next major support. Sustaining above 70 is the least it has to do before hitting 80, a strong resistance area.
Escort at 80 has 83-85-88 to deal with first.
SRF is probably the most promising here. 267 is a good support area and 260 should the market keel. To the up, 293-299 have been difficult for a while. As I have traded this several times, there was some news recently of a good amount of carbon credits it holds which caused a rally after flat last quarter results.
Sangam, decent too, and 74 being support may give an entry if it holds, or 69 with 60 s/l.
Shyam Tele has support at 94 or 89. 105-108 is resistance directly above.
Ing Vysya had good action and volume Friday. Looks ok to take above 156, but watch 162-164-170. Stop 141.
All the best.

Hey Amit,

Honestly, being new and at the same time asking so many questions in one post was a bit 2 much of me. I thought u would never reply back.

Thanx a million for your response.

I am a bit of a risk taker but don't play with big numbers. I look at the fundamentals and am a long term investor. I am still a learner and would definitely learn as time progresses especially with ppl like you, Saint, Karthik, Supratik and the other seniors around to guide us.

Thanx again for all your effort.

regards,

Anthony.

Hi Amitda !!

Very nicely explained..
Had a doubt..
How do you get what levels to clear before it shows strength..
e.g 95-101 for IDBI ..
Would really help if u could explain how you got those levels for a couple of stocks in this post..
N what is OHLC, Amitda ??

cheers
vizzie

Hi vizzie, if you opened the daily chart of IDBI from, say, December '03 to make it appear dense, with the price style as bars, and drew horizontal lines at the levels mentioned, you'll see much price/bar density, and price confluence towards both directions at these levels. The upwards swing shifts pertinent to current price get into buy/sell conflict at these lines. The visual is quite graphic. Now zoom into the chart starting from say, Feb '05. You'll see several long range bars around these lines.
Next keeping the same horizontal lines, turn to the weekly charts and you see a similar price action at these levels. Further you'll see several long range bars again.
Where long range bars appear, they indicate a likely turn of direction in price.
This is one of the methods I use to locate long standing conflict levels.
So once IDBI begins to trade above these levels with sustained volume, buying pressure would be the predominant feature of price action. It would indicate that the corrective phase is over, and price would find it easier to move up. Also, quite likely once at these levels, the price would have moved above its 20, 50, 200 day moving average establishing an uptrend.
There is of course more supply further up around 109-113-118 etc, but by this time the trend and pressure is on the up.
So it shows strength here.

OHLC is Open, High, Low, Close.
Check back when you like vizzie. Like Saint said, you're a keen learner!
All the best.

Hi Amitda !!

Thx a ton for the detailed explanation u gave..
Went through it many times.. won't say got vrythin..
but surely got a couple of things...
thx again for that lucid exp.
will buzz u again to learn more on the subject..

Keen Learner.. ya,tryin to be.. knew nothin when I joined the forum.. It is because of u guys, that I'm beginnin to get smthing..
Very sure we have a long and eventful journey together..


cheers
vizzie

Hi Anthony, no, you can always expect a reply though it does make life easier to have two or three stocks queried at a time.
At times it takes longer to come back with replies as there is a whole world of other things to give time to, like family, friends, chores, relaxation, research, reading, trade preparation, and sleep of course!
Some times a query simply gets buried amongst the pages.
I've seen a random few curt remarks from impatient members, or those whose queries have been missed. Some of the threads here do have a lot of traffic.
It's nice to know when all this is understood and empathised with.
Thanks Anthony.

Do ask again what it was you missed, vizzie.
Will attempt again tomorrow.

Hi Amitda !!

The effort u put in answering is commendable..
Perhaps the reason u command so much respect in teh forum..
Really amazin..

Amidta, I got the wide range bar thing that u said. There were quite a few of em in teh 95-101 range. But the price action, the density, that u mentioned, it was there in teh 95-101 range but also slighlty above. From my first look at the charts, couldn't quite make the 95-101 region had it not been for ur post.
I guess I am missin smthing in here. Whenever, u find time, Amitda, could u pls just give a similar explanation for some other stock.

Would help greatly.

Thx again for making a beautiful subject all the more exciting.

Sincerely appreciated

cheers
vizzie