Some Good Steals...

AMITBE · #**2871** 17th February 2006, 05:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AMITBE

Hi Vinsu...there has been a buzz around this counter in the last little while. They are into a niche area of developing safety divices and anti collision systems for the railways and it seems they may not have a lot of competition in this area where growth potential is huge. On the face of it, this could be a strong winner over the next few months.
To see a stock taking a beating in the thick of the results season only suggests poor showing or market disappointment or both. It traded in a range till the eve of its results and then the beating.
I couldn't locate comparitive data so someone else may make an input here...it's certainly an interesting counter.
Technically there is hardly any data to go by, but as it's interesting, I'll attempt to find some likely key supports...
These could be around 255-246-243-240 for now with cmp 264.
To the up, 272-284-301-306 appear to be the levels of contention.
A'm tracking closely but do update when you like.
Thanks for the pointer and cheers.

Vinsu, if you see this follow up on Kernex.
Kernex has broken below the support at 255, closing at 251.30 with low at 250 with an increase in volume.
However, observing the daily price action over the past several days, it does appear as if it's a tough nut to crack. It has consistantly had good buying support in the 164-168 area, and mid week had even tested 280. Despite the fall today, 250 brought in buying support each time. These are signs of accumulation I believe.
With this close, it's at the IPO issue price band of 225-250. It had listed at 350 with intraday high at 400.
It may perhaps not a have a lot of downside from here looking at the buying support at these levels, and the supports are given above.
I did start to accumulate in small quantities around the day's low towards the end.
Regards.

sharv · #**2872** 17th February 2006, 06:50 PM

hi,

would like to know your opinion on these stocks

IVRCL INFRA. cmp 935 - split announced Rs 2- effective price Rs 185-190
strong results- Huge order bookings.Above Rs 4500 cr approx.

Subhash proj-FV Rs 2- cmp 145 Also good results and well order bookings

ABG SHIPYARDS cmp 345 very good results and order bookings.

Torrent Pharma cmp 970 - split Rs 2 announced-Effective price Rs 195
good results too.

Numeric Power cmp 335 --Good results- batteries inverters business.

Helios matheson cmp 215-- good results- bonus track record ( twice 1:1 in
2.5 years)

thanks

sharv

AMITBE · #**2873** 17th February 2006, 11:13 PM

Financial Technologies has been taken out from trade to trade segment today.
It has been recently included in the CNX IT Index, and the 5% circuit limit is removed also.
With all the good news recently, and the consolidation it's been through now, we should be seeing some stiring here soon.
I believe some members have position.

amitkr · #**2874** 18th February 2006, 02:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AMITBE

Financial Technologies has been taken out from trade to trade segment today.
It has been recently included in the CNX IT Index, and the 5% circuit limit is removed also.
With all the good news recently, and the consolidation it's been through now, we should be seeing some stiring here soon.
I believe some members have position.

Hi Amit,

No positions yet... but eyeing this for quite some time now..Looks like time to enter...
Remember Mcleod Russel... (Zoomed to 150 ... we discussed it when it was 60

). And am still having a very patient position in Sunflag

AMITBE · #**2875** 18th February 2006, 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AMITBE

Hi NK...yes Bharat Forge is still a buy.
In case you wish to buy in, accumulate at declines. Though in a falling market the following levels may provide a decent entry: 403-400-397-394-390-385.
A close above 416-419 would push it towards 435, and a close above 440 would add another 50 plus points...subject to how the markets pan out of course.
If and when you do get in, call back if you like for stops etc. As I had mentioned in the earlier post, a counter like this has minimum downside risk, and is one of the blue-chips in the making if not already there.
Post April-May annual results, a lot of the recent major investments would begin to reflect in the price action I believe. It's a wealth creator in the long term.
All the best.

Above is the reply to nkpanjiyar's query on entry to Bharat Forge February 9.
From the intraday high at 429 a few days ago, yeaterday it closed at 402.20 afterday intraday low support at 398.60.
A great counter for investing mid to long term so keep a watch at declines should it dip deeper. Below 374 area is s/l.
Regards.

ganeshhity · #**2876** 18th February 2006, 02:45 PM

amitda,

anything to enter into at this stage ??????...
Ranbaxy, bharat forge, Mcleod Russel,ITC etc..

expert comments solicited..
ganeshhity.

AMITBE · #**2877** 18th February 2006, 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AMITBE

Hi sammy...I have no idea of the fundamentals on FDC.
Technically it has been in a range for about two years now, and this indecision in either direction is being depicted on the daily, weekly and monthly charts as a classic symmetrical triangle.
Typically as the coil gets tighter, the chances of a breakout get stronger in the direction of the trend.
Here 'trend' is the catchword in the sense that one would have to go back two years in this instance to determin the trend, which is of course to the up.
Now, two years is a long time for a scrip to be devoid of any trend so it would seem prudent, on the face of it, to leave the outcome of the eventual breakout as open-ended, without taking any stance on it.
Yet, a trend is a trend, even if it happened two years ago, and so the bias would rest on a breakout to the up.
In support of this we have a wide range bar on the daily chart on January 5 where it opend at 52.60 went to 57.70 to close 57.10. The next day it made an up bar, closed higher at 58.30 and then the price drifted down to test support at 49.80, a good support area, on February 2. Now it's pulling back again at 53 close, and a break above the trendline would come at 55-56.
If it can manage to sustain above 58, it is likely to attempt 62-63, but only with the weight of strong volume behind it, which incidentally has been average on the last two up bars. Above this level it would be a clean breakout.
While there are stronger trending counters around, if you are keen on this, enter with a stop below 48.
All the best.

sammy, if you see the above.
That was my response of 12th February 2006, 08:24 PM, to your query made on 12th February 2006, 01:43 PM as follows:

Quote:

Originally Posted by saamy

amitbe, can i enter FDC at current levels or shall i wait for a correction? Whats your view technically and fundamentally.

The date/time stamp is from the posts and the link is here: http://www.traderji.com/33663-post2786.html
You had obviously missed it, just as I forgotten what the query was and that I had replied to it.
Recently you had left a terse remark on this thread that I had missed this.
Well I hadn't it seems, and only just found this while looking for any unanswered queries that need attending to.
There is a lot of activity on some of the threads in the forum sammy, so please do check and look around as all this takes a lot of time to do.
If still not found, just pm me.

As an update on your query if you're still tracking it, FDC for the past six sessions has been closing in the 53 and some paise range, with the low and high also just about there. The trading range now is least volatile in either direction. The volume is still quite low and there is a slight positive divergence on TRIX.
As such all the conditions are right for a breakout at some point now and an increase in volume with a wide range bar closing in either direction would be a sure indication of things to come.
S/l remains the same as given in the post above.
Thanks and cheers.

ragh_ash · #**2878** 18th February 2006, 10:36 PM

hi amitbe,
am still with Shanti & carborundun(remember?)
pl u r views to hold or get out.
regards
ragh_ash

AMITBE · #**2879** 19th February 2006, 01:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by p_haolader

HI Amit,

I am back with another query. Seems that the TA bug has bitten me badly. I have moved from BSE charts to FCharts. The chart of AGRODUTCH seems good to me, reasons being ..

BOLLINGER
1. We are comming out of the sqeeze with an uptrend.
2. The prices are near the upper bollinger band.

MACD (Maybe someone who uses this can answer)
1. We have positive MACD and increasing
2. The short term line(blue) is trading above the red one (long term).

Please enlighten me

Waiting for your comments.

- Partha

Hi Partha...this has taken long coming, but it's here now.
For Bollinger Bands, I use the middle line as a 20 day simple moving average, and for the outer bands, a standard deviation of plus and minus 2.
The moving average line smoothens out the price action.
The upper and lower bands envelope the price line to measure the volatility of the price line and to compare volatility and the relative price.
Almost all the price action is encompassed within the bands as they quickly adjust to price action.
Periods of sharp pikes or dips widen the bands to depict volatility, and when volatility drops to a minimum, the bands shrink together to give rise to the phenomena known as Bollinger squeeze.

MACD, Moving Average Convergence Divergence, is a trend following indicator that signals trend changes and also to indicate trend direction. Signals are generated by crossovers and divergence from price.
Assuming you have the technical knowhow of this indiacator, the direction of the long-term trend is the first assessment you would make of any stock. If it's up you go long, if down, go short. It should only be used to trade trends and never in a ranging market where it can mislead.
MACD as a trend following indicator would not show the early signs of a move, but would keep you on the side of the trend. Where a significant move develops, it would often help catch a big portion of it. When the trend is short, MACD can lead one into a whipsaw.

You have done well to spot the positive divergence, yes it is there.
The chart with me shows a mid term correction/consolidatin since mid July to September when the price tested 52 levels and fell back each time. A corrective move like this nomally occurs when a rigid resistance doesn't get taken out...as in a double or triple top. Also the arrow points to a long range bar, 'Price Exhaustion' that opens 55 off, low at 50, close 51.50, meaning very close to the day's low. The trend is about to change here.
Following this the price declines sharply to test the low at 38 end October, rises to 48 early December, and then falls to 35 end December to rise to 43 early January. Then it drops to 36 off, making a marginally higher low, and stablising there for a period of sideways consolidation.
So we have lower lows and lower highs, a typical formation of a mid term down-trend consolidation, as each low at 38 and 35 is not radically far from the other. Relatively, selling pressure was stronger at higher levels with the buyers unsure and not coming in. Buying came in relatively early at the lower levels.
Your MACD signal is quite true where the crossover corresponds with a price move to the up after the consolidation and test of support at 36-37.
The resultant high at 45 on Feb 13 takes out the previous high at 43. The next day it slips again to take support at 43, a previous high resistance, now supporting. The next day up again then down the next, in the same band.
This is a whipsaw goin on here as the price attempts a breakout. The reason: Check the volume bars. It's thinning out even more. This is a sure giveaway, suggesting a no go yet. Simultaniously, another important inference to be drawn from this is, in the falling price, the volume thins out, and so, the sellers are not increasing in numbers even if the buyers are not coming in. As the selling pressure is not intense, there is a stand off, and the matters are even-stevens.
One critically important aspect of MACD crossover is the location of the crossover in relation to the zero line and is illustrative of how strong a trend might be. A crossover above the zero line is considered more bullish than one below the zero line. The higher above the zero line it crosses, the stronger the uptrend. If the crossover occurs below the zero line, the uptrend is not going to be very strong in most cases.
In the chart, note that the crossover is below the 0 line and so the uptrend is obviously floundering.

Associated with your Bollinger Bands theory here, there is in fact no clear evidence of a squeeze of late, as suggested by you. The bands have been flung quite apart, meaning the volatile correction/consolidation is still underway even if it appears that a bottom support has been formed.
So in conclusion, it's a wait and watch. An outbreak may or may not happen in the near term, but price stablity marked by a clear drop in volatility is much needed.

Hope this is helpful, and get back for clarifications if you like.
All the best with the journey in TA.
As you said:
To life.

roneeth · #**2880** 19th February 2006, 10:15 AM

Hello Amit,

Hope you are having a great weekend!
Thanks for the lesson on Agro dutch and the attached chart really helped to understand everything you explained.great going.

Regards

Roneeth

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