Some Good Steals...

Thanks Amit
Actually I tried to study TA. and checked for MACD. I could understood that it was a buy signal and bought some on 24th Oct. Biocon for Rs 519.40 and Rallis Rs 335.80 with stop loss of 511.4 and 329 respectively.

Used the term Gambled as I was not confident.
thanks again for your response.
kind regards
Geeta

Hi Amit

Here is the update as on 28th Oct, 05

Hotline Glass 500195 CMP 11.06 Holding 3000 @ 13.53
Vishal Exports 532618 CMP 6.44 Holding 5000 @ 7.10
Facor Alloys 532656 CMP 5.67 Holding 4300 @ 10.40
Facor Steel 532567 CMP 8.09 holding 2500 @ 10.60

Best Regards

Suja

Amit , what is your idea about VIRINCHI[532372]after declaring reasonble good result.The stock is being hammered continuously.What is the downside according to you?I want to invest it for medium to long .

Hi Atul...your list. You must check the current and preceding results for these if wanting in. Only the consistently good ones will get anywhere in times to come. Also, those which have been doing well over the last several weeks will recover the earliest past this down phase, beating the tech levels and formations etc. However be cautious with any rally in any of these as corrective/reflex/relief rallies may occur from time to time in this fall. Wait for confirmative signs before taking position. For a lot of them I have suggested review levels so bring them up when these are reached.

Dena Bank is in no trend whatsoever so better left alone. A move over 33 with volume would warrant a review.
CentBank's numbers were suspect if I remember right. Make sure of this. It's a tad above an important support at 17.50-18, and below can test 16.50 and even 15. If this holds 18-18.50 could be entry on the up with s/l below 17.
BankRajasthan too is not a likely candidate. Hardly a trend with much density overhead. Should it close above 50-52 we could review then.

ITC has trapped many players since the stock split. It may be bottoming out at the current levels of 115 off, but if not, can test around 112 next. Should it come up now or later, for safety wait to pass 118 with increased volume with s/l below 115.
Hind Lever is showing no sign of reversing and below the current 157 off has strong support at 155, bur below 152 may sink further to 149. Wait for at least clearing 162-165 convincingly with s/l at 157 or 155.

Ashok Leyland is very strong on the charts at 24-25 and these should hold any further slide. I would chance this above 29 with a strict s/l at 26. Only a close above 31 would get it going. May well test patience till then. It's defensive and for long mid to long term.

Gujarat Ambuja is still correcting and may well seek lower levels from the current 88 if 85 is broken. 82 is a strong support level. To he up, above 88 with increased buying entry could be considered with strict s/l below 86. Not much room for error here as the correction goes on. The current results reflect a drop in sale which is expected in this quarter of the monsoons. End of December this one should be shaping really well looking ahead. Another great mid to long term investment.

Polaris needs to close above 103 to give an early sign of recovery and above 112 would look better. Can review it then.
Rolta, as I track this, had been quite strong in this fall till mid last week. Now it's testing danger at 150.80 and below 147 can push down further. Wait for a close above 160 with better volume and will review then.
Hexaware has support in the 90-94 area. 105-106 are 20 and 50 day simple moving averages, and above this will review again.
Aptech is best left alone for now and may test 82-84. A close above 96-97 will review. Above 93 would be a safe level.

Deepak Fert is looking weak and may break below the support zone at 72-73. Close above 79 would be worth a review.
Nagarjuna Fert has support at 12-12.50, and closing above 14.50-15 may begin to look interesting again. Has not done too well the past two quarters, the reason for under performing

Petronet LNG is coming off a good move over a couple of months. As a sector while it’s interesting, will continue to be driven by state price policy, sourcing opportunities and transportation costs. Should do well in the mid-long term. 51-54 is support area with a deeper fall below this. I’d wait for 58-59 with tight s/l at 56.
NTPC too is a great defensive mid-long term buy and should go places in this time frame. 90-92 are good supports, then 87-89. Slipping to these and coming up past 94 could be a good entry with s/l at 87. Above 97-99 will bring back the trend.

So much for now and do return for clarifications if any.
Will certainly post some picks past this down times.
Regards.

Hi Suja..not a lot to update here.
Hotline continues to sruggle at 12 plus for now. It has to close above 13 for better looks and then 15 with volume to regain the trend.
Vishal is now at danger levels and has to move above 7.50 at least for safety.
Facor Alloys is in unchartered zone to the lows and pulling up to safety over 8 appears distant at this point.
Facor Steel has gained suddenly and wait for confirmation over 8.50-9, as here stablity is better. Still a lot of work to here.
I'm afraid the wait may be long yet, Suja. I'm not aware of the fundamentals of any of these, but if they are sound you should be able to pull your money out without loss eventually. Take it as a lesson learnt for stopping out and trail stopping, and let me tell you, no one has ever escaped the pain of being trapped high. Past this, do build on your experience and have a strategy in place. It's awfully easy to do and absolutely vital.
Good luck and do post updates.

Hello Amit,

Any long term views on the market? Few weeks ago stories of sensex doing 10k to 18k in 2-3 years were buzzing. Is the future story still intact technically? Fundamentally I don't feel much has changed.

Regards

ALok

Hi Alok...your guess is as good as mine, friend. 10k and 18k is way way distant at this point, even if 2-3 years is a reasonable stretch of time.
Yes, the future story does still appear intact, technically or fundamentally. A move in one direction will always be followed by a retracement and so on. As long as the mid to long term fundamentals of India Inc. are strong, which they are, the market will follow its lead.
The problem is with our collective memory. When the going is good there is never a thought of the inevitable correction. And when the correction does come, the gloom and pain are too overwhelming to see the way ahead clearly.
Risk management, the topic of discussion in the chat room Friday night, stop loss, trailing stops etc are the only true recourse in the fight against damaging emotions like greed and fear for us in the market.
While we have a sound strategy in place, the index can do its own thing without ever harming us.
Yes, I do believe the long term view is just fine. The climb back is likely to be slow and cautious over a period of time, and human nature being what it is, at some point a heady bull run would return again and things would be on their merry way again. Which, to all the sensible thinkers, would be the same as re-inventing the wheel all over again.
Cheers, Alok.

Hi Amit,

thanks for your views.

The problem is with our collective memory. When the going is good there is never a thought of the inevitable correction. And when the correction does come, the gloom and pain are too overwhelming to see the way ahead clearly.

The above comments describe the general incestor very well and more or less even the most disciplined trader falls in the above trap.

Thanks and Rgrds

Alok

Hello Amit!

Very good move in REI Agro...6% to 197cmp.
I had entered at 197...

regards

Roneeth

Fantastic, Roneeth! 197-199 are crucilal to cross and 191-195 important supports. Do trail stop this time, especially above 205.