Some Good Steals...

Hi all,
Have been digging around for some good scrips, but the task is not easy as in the current market, even mules will run up fast as bulls, and trap investors as quickly.
With the end of July derivatives coming up, trapped bears have no options but to cover sell positions. This will add to the triggers for the indexes, which seem all set to enter a new phase in which we may quite likely see NIFTY hitting 2280-2290 anytime soon early in the week.
On the other hand, the total trade at the exchanges was not a lot on Friday, a mere 4122 lakh at NSE does not really warrant the big jump in NIFTY. Certainly those who came in late in the day on Friday at crossing 2250, will be booking profits and some correction is very much on the cards intraday. Supports are good at 2250 and below this jitters may creep in again.
First thing tomorrow, the market is likely to run up sharply, and the profit taking will follow, so wait and carefully try and enter trades at declines.
In all this volatility, one must trade and invest with caution. Please do not go chasing stocks, keep away from penny stocks that you know nothing about, and especially don’t go by rumours and tips doing the rounds without proper verification.
Those who are trapped at lower levels in their scrips can look for exit opportunities, so do be sharp.
In all the euphoria and volatility, for me, making suggestions for scrips starting tomorrow is risky without waiting out the day to clearly see how stable things get. My advice is the same to all and most especially to beginners.
First I’ll up date on the scrips discussed earlier.
I expect BOI to come back into play on the back of average to decent results. In the last annual results the bank had posted disappointing numbers, and the market was expecting some turn around which seems to have begun. This is also reflected in the recent rise in price. Much is going on with the bank, and it’s on its way onwards. The scrip has done 124 intraday a few days ago. It could well test this again, as in the last session it staged a smart recovery to 120.75 off from 116 previous close. If it closes above 122, then will seek higher levels, but for now, if holding, exit 124 off if it gets there and take it from there.
Hind Lever after the 164 mark early this month has been consolidating on volume in the 156-159 range, and has given a signal at closing 161.70. The whole of last week the FMCG pack under-performed, and now surely looks set to come back. I expect HindLever to test 164 soon, and if it closes above 166, will turn bullish, probably later in the week. The likely target is 180 in the near term.
Dabur should be on it’s way, and a close above 152 will set for160 plus. This should happen very soon.
Allahabad Bank is consolidating around 94-96, and has to close above 98 to turn bullish and break the 100 mark. However, being a slippery one, a close below 92 could send this lower. Defensive play would be to wait for the 100 close in this rally, if not entered yet.
IDBI should be back in the game quite soon, and a close above 116 will make it test 125 levels next few sessions.
NTPC broke the 92.50 jinx to close 92.70 for the first time. There is no real reason for it to look back, and even it loses some ground, will come back. For safe players (like me), this is a good scrip for 96 plus soon. But then, when it closes above 96, I feel the pace up will improve.
About GujNRECoke, Arvind and Alok.
Kkz59, Kamalesh, has rightly posted in my thread that the equity is diluted for the three. I am of the opinion still, that both GujNRE. and Arvind will try and get back in.
Arvind has been consolidating for a few months and will test 140 soon enough. From there it may correct a little to current levels of 135, and make a charge past 140, and then will test 155-160.
GujNRE too should be testing 129 to close past 132 in some time soon. Past this will clear 140. I’m holding both.
Godrej will probably open higher than the close of 249 and spurt a little to test 252-254, but will decline on profit taking. If the volumes look good early on, try to enter below 249 if possible.
Gammon, if anyone has entered, is ok now, but I’ll want to watch it a couple of days to confirm the levels I’d posted earlier.
Bharti will be shortly testing 275. Try to get in at some decline from Friday's close of 266. Tends to slip after spurting, so there should be chances. Good for intraday too, if could be caught around 164 moving up. Target is 272 as intraday high.
I am giving a few new scrips which are defensive mainly, so keep an eye on them.
JPHydro: Closed 31.30, and once closes above 32, the issue price, looks good to test 40.
MRPL: Closed 48.60 and on crossing 50-52, looks good to test 60.
Noida Toll Bridge: Has been testing 25-26 the past few days to close 24.95. At close above 26, expect 32-33 plus. I like this one
Shyam Tele I am calling again at the close of 86.30 as twice recently it has tested 87. Above 89, I expect it to spurt to 100, with a couple hiccups on the way. This is subject to volumes of course, and has consolidated long enough. Has strong support at 83-85 levels.
Vdoconintl: Is resting sideways at a strong support at current close of 80.95, down from a very recent peak of 85. This is set to take off again and crossing 85, expect 95 off first.

I’ll post some more tomorrow after looking at the swing of the market.
Some answers:
Hi roneeth…Syndicate Bank has run up from 55 to 67 levels last ten sessions. I’m not sure if you are holding or wish to buy. The recent public issue has been fixed at 50 rupees. It is difficult for me to suggest a target with this kind of a situation. By tecnicals, it may get to 72-73 for now, but this is uncertain.
Hi ravi t…sorry for the delay. There seems a lot of action with Gufic. Went from 24 to 34 in two days, then closed 32 the third! Well buddy, I would be out of my depth if I suggested entries or exits here. On the fundaments front: Gufic is emerging as a strong player in the area of biotechnology having manufactured many biotech products in the area of infertility and bleeding disorder. Gufic is now launching some drugs to address internal bleeding which are cheaper substitutes to expensive imported ones and have a great potential. Gufic has also tied up with some other Indian companies for marketing of these products. There has been massive buying/selling action taking place in the company that the market has got wind of. The price action in the next few days would clarify the actual trend, and till then it is all speculation. Leave it for now.
Hi sam…I’m in no position to suggest the price movement of ONGC based on the j/v with the Mittals. There is obviously going to be more than some stirring. On technicals alone, ONGC came back strong on Friday’s close of 938, after some weakness in the preceding sessions. From here the levels for Monday are 950-960 where 950 is the 20 DMA. On close above 950, expect around 980.
Trade cautiously.
Bye for now.

Thanks for your detailed feedback Amitbe.
I really appreciate the effort and the interest you have shown.

This is what I have decided as of now.
So, I will quit: Eicher, Rama Newsprint and Hind Petro.
Also, I want to come out of Kanika Info.

Now, please give me suggestions for replacement.
I am looking for long term (3 years) investment.
So, give me 3-4 scrips which have solid fundamentals and which can give decent returns in the long term.

Thanks,
Narendra

Hi Amit,

Thanks for the effort you have put in answering queries!!

-Sam.

(I got into ONGC at 957 levels!! Can I wait for it to go high from here??)

Sam,
You have entered ONGC high for today, and it is showing no real impact of the media coverage of the j/v with the Mittals of the last few days. My targets were for today on techs alone, which have been met at 962. My suggestion is, try to find an exit a little above the CMP of 157 off, as it may seek lower levels again.
Narendra, these are your decisions alone, I said what I could figure best. About investing in other scrips, why don't you make a post in Fundamental Analysis section and see what you get? I'll be happy to give any feed-back if I can.
About Bharti I had written last night: Good for intraday too, if could be caught around 164 moving up. Target is 272 as intraday high.
It fell to 260 off and peaked so far at 271. Target Achieved. Hope someone made it.
IndBulls, at close of 214, and running up to 235 has been consolidating in a tight 230 band with huge volume for quite some time. This is out of character for it as it slips quickly in profit taking. Now at 228 off, keep an eye as there may come another spurt to 235 later if the indexes hold. THIS IS FOR INTRADAY ONLY.
Thanks.

Thanks AMIT for such a nice valuation...u started it for ALOK but dint elaborated...can u pls suggest on that one...its goin at a stable 67 level ...is ita share to hold ?

coolguy_gaurav, just keep away from Alok at this point. It's a long way from being a bullish share.
Be careful now with IndBulls, it's being volatile now but chances exist for seniors only, I'd say.
Thanks.

IndBulls was down to 224 one hour ago, and now back at 233 and fighting it out...Hope some one took the offer.

Very nice AMITBE. Almost soothsayerish, one could say perhaps. Almost spot on again pal. Keep up the good work. I am appreciatings all this, albeit a bit silently from the wings. Not much of a T/A myself is maybe why.

Thank you, jaideep, your words are graciously accepted.
Technical Analysis aside, what I've been doing for some time is follow the scrips, study their movement and nature, and develop a feel for them. That's where the tip on IndBulls came from.
T/A or fortunetelling or prophesying...something has to work, eh?
And Sir, should I be taking it personally that you wouldn't spare a little verse for me today?
Ain't you got no rhymes for me no more?

Hi all,
Not a lot to say just yet except a few points.
Godrej began well with low volumes and made steady progress from the previous close of 249.10 and after it touched 256 off there was a quick volume build up as it kept progressing to the 261, and after that the punters who must have taken positions earlier at lower levels, moved in with heavy selling, pushing the price back to the closing yesterday of 241.40. This is the third day in a row that it has closed just around here. I had expected it to close much higher yesterday, and as it didn’t, be cautious if positions taken. Today will be crucial and for us to know of its price movement going forward.
Gammon comparatively did much better with better volumes. From 272 previous close went to 279 to close 275. In a couple of days we’ll know clearly about this one too.
NTPC at closing 97.25 which was pretty close to the intra high of 97.90, seems very likely to win the race to 125 fro IDBI doesn’t it?! No, just kidding…
Yesterday I had written: ‘NTPC broke the 92.50 jinx to close 92.70 for the first time. There is no real reason for it to look back, and even it loses some ground, will come back. For safe players (like me), this is a good scrip for 96 plus soon. But then, when it closes above 96, I feel the pace up will improve.’ So the call comes true, and going by yesterday’s out of character behavior of not quickly slipping after touching highs, there is reason to believe it will reach higher today. A 100 plus level cannot be ruled out. This is the kind of stock like a slow train: get off, go for a walk in the woods, and when you return it’ll still be around within sprinting distance to get on again.
IDBI just needs to close above 115 to go forward to 125, and I expect some action today after it has consolidated at current levels long enough. It has had higher closes recently, but has gone and stuck itself at sub 113 levels again.
GujNRECoke slipped without any reason. Perhaps it is a little tired and needs to consolidate here longer. Then there was news fro Rain Calcining that it has plans to be the the biggest player in a similar area. I’m watching this one.
IndBulls, less said the better for now!
BOI seems to have done with the rally for now after saluting the average decent results yesterday. It went up 126 off and closed 124, it’s highest ever. I don’t really see a lot of gain from here for now.
Aztec made some strong moves again yesterday. We’ll know soon what it wants to do.
MRPL is the only scrip that made progress from yesterday’s suggestions. Touched 52.20 to close 51.85. Was called at 48.60. For now 54-55 seem the target range.
The rest are still good.
Sam had asked for ONGC at entering at 957. My estimate went a little off, Sam. Some times news coverage will confuse the data here. Still I feel after yesterday’s strong close it may touch 975-985 today but the weakness can still return.
Ah, yes...try to get on to Dabur and Bharti at declines for a quick ride forawrd.
Dabur should be looking at scaling new highs very soon, even past 160.
Bharti may likely seek 275-280 near term.

Thanks for now, and if I remember anything, will come back later.