West Side Story

adilsaleem · #1 29th August 2006, 01:07 AM

Dow up 80 points
Nasdaq up 20 points

we can expect a strong opening tomorrow.

Fiis still selling in the indian market but in small numbers. Maybe they would buy a good quantity tomorrow

amitt29 · #2 29th August 2006, 01:16 AM

Hi Adil,I think they wud hedge and sell on the highs and cash in on the euphoria.
Regards.

adilsaleem · #3 29th August 2006, 05:54 PM

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in the Capital Market segment(In Rs. Crores)
Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
29-Aug-2006 1310.11 1107.32 202.79

So its +200 Cr. in cash

amitt29 · #4 29th August 2006, 06:44 PM

I wudnt jump my guns till I see the derivative figures,where real action lies.
Because its my prime belief,that we r currently in a derivative driven market.
Regards.
Amit.

adilsaleem · #5 29th August 2006, 09:24 PM

I agree with you Amit, I have been observing the derivate buying and selling by the Fiis, but its difficult to make much of it. The reason is that you would not know the cumulative position. Its difficult to know if they are covering or adding to their kitty. Suppose they buy 1000 Crores and sell 800 crores, it could be a rollover to the next month. Also they would have to square of at the end of every month. To me they play with the market in the derivates section. Their actual hold is in the capital market. Also let me tell you that i am not bullish at these levels. Every large cap to me is too high to buy. To me there should be a correction in the coming days. This time it corrects a little bit everyone in town would be saying that we will see 9000 again. This is to scare the investors. I would be observing the FII's very closely next month. Once the money begins to flow in , it would be time to accumulate for me keeping technical stops. Tho for everyone reading this , i am no expert. I am learning and have been learning the hard way. What i have learnt is even if you trade completely on fundamentals , a little of technical analysis is very important. Especially resistance and support.

adilsaleem · #6 29th August 2006, 10:10 PM

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 29-Aug-2006

INDEX FUTURES 288.67
INDEX OPTIONS 55.94
STOCK FUTURES -89.53
STOCK OPTIONS -4.05

amitt29 · #7 29th August 2006, 10:51 PM

Hi Adil,I agree.But all along this month they have been stealthily selling and in a rotational way.And thus u see a rotational rally instead a broadbased one.
Thus u see a low volume fall along with low volume rise.
The only positive for me coming out of thi rally is India moving out of influence of Cow and Asian indices.
Now coming on ur buying on dips strategy or accumulating thats precisely what the ops/f2s/large players want and have made ppl see in this rally,so ppl try to catch the falling knife.
Just cut to 12700 situation on sensex before May fall,we had a volatile April hadnt we,and followed by a rally(huge one)post Infosys bonus etc.So beware of the stamping butterfly and flee at first sign of trouble.Deja Vu.
I know nobody likes a party spoiler,but u have gotta call a spade a spade.

I personally believe this rally still has some legs to get ppl(read retail etc)to get euphoric again.And then Boom,comes the sucker punch.
And u can make out what they are doing in Derivatives.

Regards
Amit.

amitt29 · #8 29th August 2006, 11:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by adilsaleem

I agree with you Amit, I have been observing the derivate buying and selling by the Fiis, but its difficult to make much of it.
The reason is that you would not know the cumulative position. Its difficult to know if they are covering or adding to their kitty. Suppose they buy 1000 Crores and sell 800 crores, it could be a rollover to the next month. Also they would have to square of at the end of every month. To me they play with the market in the derivates section.

The rollover for this month(for f2s happened last week at the lows,just care to watch the futures data as new series is introduced,or moreso just cut to last month and observe what happened 5 days b4 expiry.

Quote:

Originally Posted by adilsaleem

Their actual hold is in the capital market. Also let me tell you that i am not bullish at these levels. Every large cap to me is too high to buy. To me there should be a correction in the coming days. This time it corrects a little bit everyone in town would be saying that we will see 9000 again. This is to scare the investors. I would be observing the FII's very closely next month.

Their actual hold is always in capital market,its the oddlotters at work
now.But we r in a derivative driven market just see the vols corresponding.

Quote:

Originally Posted by adilsaleem

Tho for everyone reading this , i am no expert. I am learning and have been learning the hard way. What i have learnt is even if you trade completely on fundamentals , a little of technical analysis is very important. Especially resistance and support.

Nobodys an expert,nobody can be(ive seen ppl loose their heads).But one day u have to drop "l" from learning.Flexibility is the name of the game.
Hope I am clear.

adilsaleem · #9 30th August 2006, 01:31 AM

I expect some after lunch selling tomorrow, FII's would probably net sell

amitt29 · #10 30th August 2006, 01:37 AM

Good Call.

Similar Threads for: West Side Story
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
India: Growth Story	nkpanjiyar	Equities	1	13th September 2006 02:04 AM
What's story behind Aarti Ind and Gujarat NRE	viveanan	Equities	1	14th February 2005 01:01 PM
side way market	bikertrader	Technical Analysis	0	10th December 2004 09:21 PM
Sonata Software - Turnaround Story?	TradersEdge	Equities	12	26th October 2004 10:56 PM