Panch Tattva: Update

Dear Birdinfo,
You have not bothered to answer any of my questions. Your reccomondations about ITC are like tip if a broker--such tips are dime a dozen.

At one point, you have written that I am materialist. Tell me, what should one call a person who is misusing holy Vedas to misinterpret stock market, which is an ultimate money making machine-- are you not a materialist? MF Hussain painted our godesses naked, so that his paintings can be sold for a bigger price. Similarly, you are misusing our vedas in the stock market so that you can sell your reccomondations. Are you not a blasphemist? If you had done Quranic Stock Marcket analysis, there would have been a fatwa against you by this time.

From whatever interactions we had, I can conclusively say that ur knowledge of Vedas as well as Stock markets, is very poor!!

Dear Brother,

Your anger in response confirms that you are a materialist.Anger is a result of nonfulfillment of desire.You will call Great W D Gann also blasphemist as he used Bible for the same purpose as I am taking the help of Vedic knowledge to understand movement in stock market.

From the interaction with you so far I am of the opinion that you are not a person of synchronous thinking and irrational in interactions at intellectual
level.You are excused from my side and now onwards I would not like to respond to your querries.

birdinfo

iGATE,RALLIS at CMP on 11/12 Apr 2007

By krsna Khandelwal - A Stock Market Vedic Theory proponent

Friends,

The following two companies Panch Tattva points post result may be noted for guidance etc.:

IGS (iGate Solutions) @399/- (11/04/07) gets 771 points and should be avoided, it seems high priced at the moment.

RALLIS @262/- (12/04/07) gets 1114 points and you must buy ii a few strokes and keep stop loss at 5% and 10% adverse movement against your average for half the quantity each time. You may book profits beyond 330/- and review to be done after the next quarterly result.

In the mean time the call rates which were hovering very high for more than a month, have moderated signalling the end of tightness at banks. The unusual tightness was due to the fact that banks do year end window dressing and such situations arise.

The put/call ratio is 0.9 at the moment and this is slightly on the high side than it usually remains. It means that the buying interest is being maintained by the players. The interpretation takes in to account the stage of market, volume and trend. It is not always that the ratio of put to call near unity will mean the same thing.

I have been trying to convey these days that the room for slide is less than the room for advance. You may keep your bias in accordance, the Panch Tattva advice should however be heeded in company specific cases.

Hari Om

BIRDINFO Stock Rx - A Vedic Prescription for stock market

My friend,

If call rates have moderated, that does not mean tightness at banks end. It signals ample liquidity at banks end!

So, Bhagwan Shivji was a materialist? He was easily provoked and had burnt down the srishti in his anger. So, in your openion, Shivji had unfulfilled desires.
Mother Durga was also materialist and had unfulfilled desires? Right?

You are an Argumetative Indian.Read Amartya Sen then.

Thanks,it should be the end of tightness at banks.

INFOSYSTCH at CMP on 13 Apr 2007

By krsna Khandelwal - A veteran market analyst

Friends,

Infosys Technologies gave out its working results yesterday. Its results are very eagerly awaited as this result sets the tone of the markets. I have analysed the result for its Panch Tattva post result points and I am glad to report it to you:

INFOSYSTCH @2086/- (13/04/07) gets 949 points and this does not give very encouraging prospects. The strategy should now be to book profits on surges and going short on substantial surge. For buying, please wait for it to go down below 1900/- and go for it after asking for the then Panch Tattva updated points.

You may refer to post on 4 Apr 07 to know about the history of recommendation over the year about this company.

The guidance suggests that there will be close to 20% growth in PAT. This should limit the appreciation in price to 10% and while the interest rates are also in the same region, there is hardly any sense in carrying the risk investment for the whole year. The welcome changes have already been estimated but the deterioration in prospect can come about without warning in IT field at large and for the company in many ways. Earlier I told you that the management or promoter groups are regularly reducing their stakes. You must ponder over it that why after all now they should be reducing stake. Your subconscious will throw up the answer that they themselves are not so sure of the positive developments as much as there is possibility of adverse development. Also in markets the buck does not stop at the right point, it is seen that markets over react in both sides and you may well understand where you should stand.

If you will calculate , you will find that the share holders in Infosys Technology have not got even 12% return over the last eight years (against the peak rate of 16000/-(ex-bonus) per share in the year 1999-2000 when its market cap had crossed 50k crs. It is capitalised at 120k crs at present while the dilution on account of ESOP is taken in to consideration the returns would work out to less than 6% p.a...Surprisingly the Infosys has continuously been praised all these years, but did any body tell you these hard facts. On the other hand, the commodity stocks like ACC and Tata Steel have returned at more than 24% p.a on compounded basis along with many others. What I mean to say is that there is a purpose in euphoria created in the media. The fourth column is not that forthright.

My stance may be termed as anti establishment by some but please tell me if the public in general is to be advised for remaining in safety and see the underlying interests how one can endorse views where the establishment is not acting without self interest or is not acting with public interest in mind (in some ways, if not entirely), be it govts' authorities, be it the company management. I have seen public good happening when it was not intended and public interests tarnished when it was otherwise proclaimed. This is 'Kaliyug' and strange will be the ways of people and the govts. At an appropriate occasion, I will take up the case of various enactments, which perpetuated the same thing that was intended to be curbed.

Hari Om

BIRDINFO Stock Rx - A prescription for stock market

ACC, BIOCON, KIRLOSOIL, MRF at CMP on 18 Apr 2007

By krsna Khandelwal - A veteran market analyst

Friends,

Please note the following Panch Tattva post result points for four companies:

ACC @783/-(19/04/07) gets 1103 pts and should be regularly bought, you may book profits in excess of 10% on part quantityty but rest should be held until next result.

KIRLOSOIL @262/-(19.04/07) gets 959 pts and is very good to buy on declines.

MRF @3621/-(19/04/07) gets 995 pts and is very good for buying on declines.

BIOCON @508/-(19/04/07) gets 1047 pts and you should buy it for medium to long term and remain guided by Panch Tattva advice.

RBI may consider putting a check on the ECB borrowing by the realty sector. This sector has raised $802 million in 2006-07 and some $10 billion worth of sanctions are in the pipeline. This thinking in my opinion is faulted, as any curb here would result in lesser supply in the market of built properties. Roughly, it may be said that each million of investment in this sector would create a supply of 3million worth. This additional worth would come from value addition, which will be shared, by labour, artisans, architects and others. Why on earth when an entrepreneur is seeing an opportunity and thelender is coming forward, the RBI should be intervening. I have earlier said that the govt. should neither guarantee the loans nor be a party to agreements and then what problem they are supposing. The economic upheavals will take place in any case, when time comes. The RBIs wisdom may not prevent it and equally it may be responsible for it. But the power drunk think, if not used than what use the power. I again call for the free currency regime.

Tatas would be funding their $12.9 billion CORUS purchase by raising equity money and debt in ratio of about 50:50 against earlier planned. They already have $640 million through conversion of warrants by affiliated entities. A further $2.4 billion would come from further issues planned. The conversion of shares at around 480/- per share is OK for the promoter group but it is detrimental for the other shareholders. For right issue per share cost is slated to be 300/- . Tatas would be raising debt of $6.1 billion. All this adds up to some comfort from the angle of safety but the share price of Tata Steelwould remain range bound for a year or two and no great returns may be expected in remaining invested here. It is best to keep buying around 480/- and keep selling above 520/-. SAIL will have better investing times but the price is already very high for comfort.

India's steel production is slated to be of the order of 120 million tonnes by 2016. You may note that this level of production was achieved by USA in seventies and they are now producing 98 milliontonnes while China is producing 418 million tonnes and Japan 118 million tonnes. In my opinion India should be going with some what lesser speed a s the steel production capacity world wide is enoughand requires replacement of the high energy consuming plants only. Further India is such a country, which can create its equivalent infrastructure at lower steel consumption levels. Too much ofurbanisation is in any case not right thing to do. Connecting villages by motorable good roads is more important in India. In fact every part of the country in inhabitable and should remain so. Telecom andtelevision have now made it possible to live in countryside even for the elite and the important.

Mobile Phone base in India has touched 149.62 million connections as on 31/12/06.The revenue per user has been moderating spelling difficult times for the operators. The two large players i.e. Bharati and Reliance have 37.14 million and 28 million users with them respectively.

China now has 140 pairs of high-speed trains (200 km/hr) running on its trunk routes. India had run its first high speed train on Delhi Howrah route way back in seventies clocking the speed of 160 km/hr. Itis note worthy how far behind we have been left just for keeping fares low for the public. Paradoxically public suffered immeasurably for it by giving on monies to running staff and booking clerks and theagents. Finding lack of surplus money Railways could not add capacities and could not modernise in time. I have first hand knowledge how the quota is sold by the Railway officials for which the money passes many a hands. It is every body’s knowledge that the season time tickets used to be sold as soon as windows opened. Now the things have improved but only slightly and one may not easily undertake railway journey at short notice. The competing modes of transport i.e. road travel and air travel although costing the nation much more in real terms are some responsible for giving some relief to traveling masses. Their is case for making railways free to charge as much as can be paid by the market and utilise the surplus in improving the traveling conditions and creating more capacity on routes with demand on them Learn from China in this respect at least.

General Motors must have made the Maruti people lose their sleep. They have announced introduction of small car models under Chevrolet Spark brand name at a very competitive pricing between Rs three lacs and Rs four lacs. The Halol plant in Gujarat would take away a major chunk of market with Maruti and Hyundai. Gujarat would be going for General Motors' cars in a big way if the there is pricing differential as the buyer in Gujarat is very cost consious.Also Gujarat may demonstrate that it is the most cost effective and peaceful place for making cars. It is only surprising that the industry has been so reluctant to come here so far.

The paid TV channel market would be worth Rs 42 k crores by 2011. This will be making India a very important content providing nation. Sports, music, art etc will be providing career opportunities like never before. Academies catering to these should start coming up in an organised way with funding arrangement possible through banks even for such studies and courses.

Hari Om

BIRDINFO Stock Rx - A prescription for stock market

INFOTECENT, PRAJIND at CMP on 19 Apr 2007

By krsna Khandelwal - A veteran market analyst

Friends,

Please note the following Panch Tattva post result points and strategy for the two companies:

INFOTECENT @363/- (19/04/06) gets 872 points and is not to be bought, if held in stock it should be sold on surges.

PRAJIND @462 /- (19/04/07) gets 882 points and is not good for retention or purchase. It should be looked at after the next result.

Gujarat, the most enlightened state in money matters has posted growth in bank deposits of only 5.9% while the all India average stands at 20%. This is for the nine month period ending 31 Dec 07, at which point the total bank deposits in the state stand at Rs. 118071 crores. Higher deposit rates have been reported by Maharashtra, Delhi and Chandigarh. I think the reason may lie in the fact that when the rates of interest surged, the Gujrati home loan borrowers saw value in paying back the home loans and preferred to encash FDs or not deposit further monies in to banks. This is wild guess only but a logical one. Since bank FDs attract income tax and the people here are already in to tax net and do not prefer to manipulate for tax savings, it is better to save tax this way. Further these people are stock market oriented where the tax incidence is nil or negligible, they are utilising the surplus funds in stock trading. In addition, the banks have shown reluctance in advancing monies to businesses, they are investing their own money in to business. They have been financing the consumer durables through EMIs and now with high interest rates it is better to use own funds, may have been at the back of their minds.

China has shown GDP numbers for the first quarter at $652 billion. The fixed assets investment there is growing at around 25% while the economic growth is 11.1%. All these number though better, are making the govt. there scared of the overheating of economy. It is not showing signs of cooling down inspite of efforts in that direction.

Mr. Mittal, the steel magnet, must be happy that after the 'Arcelor' take over the world markets have shown the steel stock indices going up more than the overall market indices on the worlds leading bourses. This enables him to encash investment to some extent and be ready for the grand investments in India. While Tatas have gone to UK for comfort, why should Mr.Mittal not come here for comfort?

Hari Om

BIRDINFO Stock Rx - A prescription for stock market