Aces In The Deck

Hi All members of the Traderji family,

I feel that this forum is a Temple of learning and sharing.

I hold in high esteem all those senior members, who spend a lot of their time for helping others, which otherwise, they could have spent for their own betterment. I take this opportunity to pay my respects to those Good Samaritans.

I am not an active investor, but I track the market. I am fascinated by the observation that even when the market crashed, there are a few stocks that held their head high. These stocks are having some inherent strength in them at that point of time.

I had been trying to develop a Software to will identify such stocks which have a strength at that point of time and are likely to raise during the next trading day/ next few days. I was probably half successful in these attempts. I considered that this is the best place to put the findings of my software, as there are so many learned members and enthusiastic investors.

The software is named 'ASTOSS" meaning A STOck Statistical Screener". Basic statistical methods and technical analysis methods are used in this software, which accepts as input the Bhav copy of EOD data of all the NSE traded stocks for the previous week to ten days, before selecting the stocks for a day.

The finding of the software were back-tested for about 2 months during which time the market had undergone wide fluctuations ( Nifty by a range of upto 2% each day either way) and the results are satisfactory. Improvements as required will be incorporated.

I plan to present the list of about 20 identified stocks of NSE exchange which have an average turnover of more than about Rs. 100 Lakhs per day and which are considered to have a potential to raise on the next day/ following few days.

As Saint once said, the market cannot be predicted, but can only be played. This list may serve only as a time saving tool, at best. Please follow the movement of selected stocks and make your oun analysis and judgement before making any investing decisions. It is your hard-earned money, make all calculations, as you normally would make without this service.

This thread is named 'ACES In The Deck". I would be posting the daily selections in this thread by the evening/night of the last trading day so that enough time is available for doing your own research.

The first stage report is named 'EOD CALL' will contain In the Header a date in YYMMDD format. The EOD data of this date was considered in preparing the 'EOD CALL' and the call is valid for the next trading day. The list contains a maximum of 20 NSE traded stocks arranged in descending order of their probability for moving up.

In the second phase of this project, a few stocks that have a potential to increase on the trading day based on performance of each stock in the first 30 minutes of trading. Such list may be released by 10:45 AM of the trading day. This phase is still under development.

Many friends in this forum and outside have been encouraging me in this project. I remember with gratitude the kind words of encouragement by Saint and AMITBE during chat sessions. I can not forget the excellent support and help rendered by Kartikmarar in the final stages of testing and release of the software. Dear Karthik, I am ever grateful to you, my friend!

I request all members to post or mail their comments, suggestions and requests.

Thanks for your time and happy investing.

murthymsr

ASTOSS v1.0 :: EOD CALL :: Dt: (YYMMDD) 051209

Stocks (NSE Codes) likely to move up in Short Term
(Stocks selected based on Statistical Analysis)
---------------------------------------------------
POLARIS MANGLMCEM GDL ELGIEQUIP ADLABSFILM
VSNL AVAYAGCL PATNI GSFC REL VOLTAS BILT
BOMDYEING CUMMINSIND SIEMENS BAJAJHIND
CHOLAINV STARPAPER SONASTEER GNFC
---------------------------------------------------
Software under trial, trade at your risk !
Pl. send your comments, feedback & requests to
murthymsr@*****.com

Hi Murthymsr,

Congratulations on building this software. Few queries -

1. Can you use the weekly charts or only the daily charts? I guess with weekly charts, your bets can be based on longer periods.
2. Is it possible to generate stop loss and targets along with stock names?
3. Can you print the scenarios, pre-defined screening filter or the criteria you used to look up these names? This will help us understand the parameters to watch while trading.

Please let me know if you need any testing to be done on your software. I will be happy to test/comment on it.

Thanks,
Mohan

Hi Murthymsr,

Generating the above info will help analyse the risk (as in standard deviation) associated with every recommendation. Otherwise it is going to be difficult trusting any system generated list of stock names. You have to back it up valid justification. Just a suggestion.

Thanks,
Mohan

good work murthy.. I may have a good new for you. I am just finished with a new version of DataExtractor for NSE.
I hope this works on Win 98 as i have excluded the MSINET control from it. I have taken API apporach.
so, this API should be available in Win 98.

I will attach the file in the evening as it is in my home. you can test it and let me know.


Satya

hi satya
thanks for your goodwork. Many of the forum members (including me)
work on win98. So your data extractor will be of great help to us.
Thanks a lot
Regards,
Joy_verma

Murthy,

I looked at charts of the scrips your software selected, they look quite good on the whole. Not all charts are satisfactory but that is expected when a list of stocks are selected. But majority of the stocks surely seem to have the potential to rise in the short-term. So it looks like a good start for your software.

Congrats! & wishing you the best.

--SwingTrader

Fully agree with swing trader. It is surely is a good start, Murthy.
Congratulations and looking forward to tomorrows Picks.

Best regards

Karthik

Dear mohanlate, srisara, joy_verma, swingtrader and karthikmarar,

Thanks a lot for your good words and encouragement.

I agree with the observations of swingtrader and karthikmarar that a few of the selections not in line with the technical view of the stock performance in the short term. But i decided to retain them and studythe performance (short term gains) for a few days and incorporate necessary changes to the parameters and the weightages, rather than editing them. This will ultimately lead to improvement of screener which selects stocks from a different point of view.

As the screener performance is under study, for a few days, i may be able to present the selections by late night or the next day morning only. Hope you will understand.

Now i will answer mohanlate's points.
1) I use data from NSE web site each day in csv format and the software does not look into any charts. It will copy the "EOD CALL" in its totality to the clip board, which will just be copied into the thread.

Of course, stocks whose position on the year-high to year-low scale is less than 20 % are not selected by the screener.

Prsent horizon of data is about 10 days only as older data may not have much relevance as far as short term performance is considered. I predominantly consider price and volume only and some built-in parameters based on these. These parameters can be considered to be somewhat similar to price-volume explosions, constriction zones, volatility, pivots, MACD etc., but not exactly the same.

2) I cannot generate any stop-losses or targets at least in the near future. You may use the standard practices to identify these values. And of couse, I am not a market mover to set a target to any stock.

The subject of how the stock screener works was posted about a month back in the software thread, and members have given their suggestions for improvement. For your ready reference the link is given below.

http://www.traderji.com/software/448...m-trading.html

Thank you mohan for offering to help me in the project. I do not consider myself strong in technical analysis. If possible, you may do the study on the selected stocks and post your observations, particularly on the technically 'not-so-good' stocks selected.

I am not used to posting such long messages, so appologies for errors.

I thank all those who read my posts in this thread and look forward to your valuable comments.

murthymsr

ASTOSS v1.0 :: EOD CALL :: Dt: (YYMMDD) 051212

Stocks (NSE Codes) likely to move up in Short Term
(Stocks selected based on Statistical Analysis)
---------------------------------------------------
VOLTAS BOMDYEING GODREJIND NDTV NATCOPHARM
THOMASCOOK ELGIEQUIP ASIANPAINT SONATSOFTW
MUKANDLTD MOSERBAER GESHIPPING CONCOR
BONGAIREFN AVAYAGCL GTCIND MCDOWELL-N BILT
STER BIOCON
---------------------------------------------------
Software under trial, trade at your risk !
Pl. send your comments, feedback & requests to
murthymsr@*****.com