Boiling News & Veg Oils ,crude

Oil prices take breather after huge jump

Singapore, June 09: World oil took a breather on Monday from spiralling prices seen hitting 150 dollars which have prompted consumer nations to urge a production increase amid warnings of a global recession.

New York`s main oil futures contract, light sweet crude for July delivery, eased 1.06 dollars to 137.48 dollars a barrel after making its biggest one-day jump ever on Friday. The contract jumped 10.75 dollars a barrel to close at a record 138.54 dollars.

Also on Friday in intraday trade the benchmark contract crossed 137, 138 and 139 dollars for the first time and soared to an all-time high of 139.12 dollars.

Brent North Sea crude for July dropped 1.30 dollars to 136.39 dollars a barrel after smashing barriers Friday in London. Brent hit a new intraday high of 138.12 dollars a barrel before it eased back to settle at a record 137.69 dollars, up 10.15 dollars.

Both futures contracts far exceeded their prior record highs set on May 22 -- 135.09 dollars in New York and 135.14 in London.

Crude Oil leapt in reaction to a new decline in the US dollar after the European Central Bank on Thursday signalled an interest rate hike and the US reported a sharp rise in unemployment on Friday, analysts said.

Compounding the dollar squeeze were reported remarks about Iran`s nuclear programme by Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz. Analysts said the comments fanned fears of a Middle East conflict.

On Sunday, Iran`s representative to the OPEC oil cartel warned the price of crude oil is set to rise even further to 150 dollars a barrel by the end of summer.

Eleven nations that guzzle nearly two-thirds of the world`s energy called Sunday for an urgent hike in global oil production.

Japan`s energy minister Akira Amari, who hosted their meeting, warned the world could plunge into recession.

Mumbai edible oil prices - June 09
9 Jun 2008 10:26 am

Mumbai - Following are the prices of various edible oils at the Mumbai market as on 10.10 a.m. (IST). All prices are in Rs. per 10kg.Excluding Value added Tax (VAT)


Variety/Day
07/06/08 09/06/08 Change
Sunflower oil Exp
643 655 +12
oil Ref
705 715 +10
Groundnut oil
710 710 -
RBD Palmolein
578 587 +9
Cottonseed oil ref
630 635 +5
Mustard oil
646 652 +6
Ref Soy oil
641 647 +6

Product: FOB Malaysian ports- June 09
9 Jun 2008 10:26 am

Mumbai - Following rates were quoted for RBD Palmolein in India on FOB Malaysian port conditions.

Month
US $/ Per tonnes

June
1275

July
1275

Aug
1275

Soya bean NCDEX July

9 Jun 2008 8:39 am


The trend is sideways

The market in the last session could not violate the resistance level of Rs 2487 and closed lower.

The market is expected to remain range bound between Rs 2385 and Rs 2487

As the trend is up therefore enter fresh long above Rs 2487 with stop loss above 2451

Yesterday's Close
2463.00

1 day back Close
2463.00

% Gains/Loss Yesterday
0.00

Trend

Daily Closing Reversal Point
2447.00

Up Trend Date
6-Jun-08

Up Trend Price
2463.00

Current Gain/Loss
0.00

% Gains/Loss
0.00%

Open Interest
41030.00

Previous Days
41260.00

% Increase/Decrease in OI
-0.56

Highest Open Interest of Contract
47960.00

Volumes
18500

Previous Days Volume
29180

% Increase/Decrease in Volumes
-57.73

Highest Volume of the Contract
44530


INTRA-DAY LEVELS

Last Close
Daily Closing Reversal

Point
Level 1
Level 2
Center Point
Level 3
Level 4

2463.0
2447.0
2445.0
2454.0
2467.0
2476.0
2489.0

High crude price in no one's interest: Oil-consuming nations
9 Jun 2008

Aomori (Japan) - Five large energy-consuming countries - the US, Japan, China, India and South Korea - Saturday jointly signaled to the world their serious concerns over current high crude oil prices. "These prices are against the interest of both consuming and producing countries," they said in a joint statement issued after a meeting between their energy ministers held in Aomori, northern Japan.

The statement came after the price if benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery rose USD10.75 a barrel, or 8.4 per cent, to settle on the New York Mercantile Exchange at an all-time high of USD138.54 Friday.

This was WTI crude's biggest dollar increase in Nymex history, and sparked market chatter that USD150-a-barrel oil will soon be a reality.

In response to the overnight fresh high, the five countries in the statement called on oil producers to raise investment, citing the heavy burden already weighing on resource-hungry developing nations

Oilseeds pick up on global cues
9 Jun 2008 2:22 pm

Mumbai - Indian vegetable oilseed futures were trading higher tracking heavy gains in the global edible oil markets. However, the progress of monsoon, forecasts for record acreage and commencement of sowing operations for soybean in Maharashtra are weighing on the market sentiments.



The Malaysian palm oil futures is trading higher, but has reduced the gains seen at morning on mild profit-booking. The US soy complex is trading sharply up currently with July soy oil and July soybean quoting up by 98 points and 29.25 cents on e-CBOT.



The domestic market had opened mixed with selling pressure being soon on the progress of the monsoon and reports of heavy rains from most areas. However, with the strong rally seen in the global markets from Friday, the local markets have no option but to move up.



However, the gains in rapeseed are still subdued with strong selling pressure still being seen with traders worried that a bumper khariff oilseed crop may decrease the long-term gains. The arrivals have also improved today, with farmers off-loading more stock at current comfortable prices before rains arrive. Arrivals are reported to be around 70,000 – 75,000 tonnes.



Monsoon has progressed into parts of Maharashtra on June 7 ahead of normal onset date of June 10 and conditions are reported to be favourable for further progress into southern Gujarat and other parts of Maharashtra.



Mr. Rajesh Agrawal, president of the Soybean Processors Association of India said that he expects soybean acreage to rise by up to 10% from last year's 8.7 million hectares. Mr. Govind Patel, managing director of Dipak Enterprises said acreage of groundnut in the key producing province of Gujarat would rise by 9% on year to 1.8 million hectares. Cotton, from which cotton-seed a major oilseed is obtained, was also expected to see an increase in acreage.



The most active July soybean contract at National Commodity Derivatives Exchange [NCDEX] at 14.15 hours is trading higher at Rs. 2,498.50 [+ 32.00] per 100 kg with 64,060 tonnes traded. July soybean at National Board of Trade [NBOT] is up at Rs. 2,479.00 [+ 15.00] per 100 kg. July CPO at Multi Commodity Exchange of India is trading lower at Rs. 529.80 [- 0.80] per 10 kg with 6,490 tonnes traded.



Most active mustard seed July futures on NCDEX is trading lower at Rs. 640.35 [- 1.35] per 20 kg with 82,740 tonnes traded. Other contracts are trading higher.



Crude Palm Oil [CPO] at the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives [BMD] is trading up with the benchmark August contract quoting at MYR 3,661.00 [+ 61.00] a tonne with 5,718 lots traded. [MYR=Malaysian Ringitt][1 lot=25 tonnes]

Oilseeds end sharply down on palm oil
10 Jun 2008 6:04 pm

Mumbai, June 10 - Indian vegetable oilseed futures closed sharply down affected by the heavy losses in Malaysian palm oil futures. The commencement of sowing of soybean in Maharashtra due to early arrival, the heavy monsoon and weakness in equity markets were also supporting the selling.



The Malaysian palm oil futures closed sharply down by more than MYR 100 as data released re-enforced the slowing down of demand and increase in supply. The US soy complex also reduced gains in after-hours trading with July soy oil and July soybean quoting down by 25 points and 4 cents on e-CBOT, when the Indian markets closed. The US soy complex had closed mixed at almost Friday’s closing levels on Monday.



The domestic futures had opened flat tracking the range-bound trading in the global markets. However, selling intensified later on account of the heavy losses in Malaysian palm oil futures.



The domestic market was also facing pressure as sowing operations commenced for soybean in Maharashtra and groundnut in parts of Gujarat. Industry experts are anticipating the acreage to increase for both crops from last year’s acreage.



Profit-booking was also seen in soybean as the market had gained by more than 3% in the past four sessions. The equity markets were also making heavy losses since Monday, which too affected the sentiments to some extent.



However, the losses in the Indian market were to some extended reduced by the limited losses in US soy market. The US Department of Agriculture [USDA] would be releasing its monthly reports today and players are anticipating further draw-down in soy stocks. Fears that torrential rainfall, flooding and forecasts for more rain this week in the U.S. might harm planted crops and delay further seeding was also limiting losses in US soy market.



The most active July soybean contract at National Commodity Derivatives Exchange [NCDEX] closed lower at Rs. 2,460.00 [- 25.00] per 100 kg with 68,430 tonnes traded. June soybean at National Board of Trade [NBOT] ended down at Rs. 2,475.00 [- 7.00] per 100 kg.



July CPO at Multi Commodity Exchange of India closed lower at Rs. 518.00 [- 10.20] per 10 kg with 14,780 tonnes traded.



Crude Palm Oil [CPO] at the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives [BMD] closed sharply down by 3.6% after a fall in exports reinforced concerns over sluggish demand in the last two months and end-month inventories bounced back to near-record levels



Malaysia’s palm oil exports for June 1-10 fell 4.3% on month to 389,300 tonnes as estimated by SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. Earlier, Intertek estimated Malaysia’s June 1-10 palm oil exports at 3,60,000 tonnes, down 12% on month.



The Malaysian Palm Oil Board in its monthly estimated that while crude palm oil output rose 9.8% to 1.45 million tonnes in May, exports fell 5.5% on month to 1.2 million tonnes. Palm oil stocks totaled 1.91 million tonnes at the end of May, up 6.9% on month.



The benchmark August contract closed lower at MYR 3,530.00 [- 130.00] a tonne with 1,710 lots traded. [MYR=Malaysian Ringitt][1 lot=25 tonnes]



The US soy complex closed mixed in Monday night with old and new-crop contracts closing in opposite directions. While, new crop contracts were supported by the heavy rains, old crop-contracts settled down on expectations of an end to the Argentina strike. Soy oil futures stumbled on weakness in energy futures, fears of loss demand from the Argentine strike suspension and position squaring ahead of USDA monthly report.



July soybeans settled 5 1/2 cents higher at $14.57 1/2 and November soybeans ended 7 1/2 cents higher at $14.39 1/2. July soymeal settled $0.50 lower at $373.00 per short ton. July soy oil finished 169 points higher at 64.34 cents per pound.



MUSTARD SEED



Mustard seed futures closed sharply down tracking the heavy losses in domestic soybean and global edible oil markets. The market had opened marginally positively on short-covering of yesterday’s losses, but moved down soon.



The market is still worried over the progress of monsoon and this was supporting the selling. Traders are worried that a normal monsoon and record khariff oilseed acreage would result in a bumper khariff oilseed crop, that would decrease the long-term gains in rapeseed.



Arrivals were reported to be around 70,000 – 75,000 bags [1 bag=75 kg] almost similar to yesterday. The arrivals have also picked up, with farmers off-loading more stock at current comfortable prices before rains arrive in Rajasthan and northern states.



Most active mustard seed July futures on NCDEX closed lower at Rs. 630.70 [- 7.50] per 20 kg with 1,21,810 tonnes traded.



The regional markets ended down with August contract at Sirsa and Hapur settling at Rs. 559.25 [- 1.75] and Rs. 617.70 [- 0.70] per 20 kg respectively.



CASTOR SEED



Castor seed futures closed higher supported by the dip in arrivals and recent weakness in the Indian Rupee. Rupee has slipped again to around 42.90 level, which improved the export prospects of castor oil and meal. Market was also anticipating that arrivals would dip further in coming days as farmers turn to sowing and other farming activities.



Castor seed July contract at NCDEX closed higher at Rs. 535.00 [+ 1.90] per 20 kg with 620 tonnes traded.



The regional markets also ended up, with September contract at Rajkot closing at Rs. 2,804.00 [+ 11.00] per 100 kg.

IEA sees tighter oil market on non-OPEC supply, China
10 Jun 2008 3:02 pm

London - The International Energy Agency (IEA) painted an even more bullish picture of the global oil market Tuesday, saying that supply from non-OPEC countries is failing to keep up with consumption and that bigger declines in global oil demand are required to take the steam out of high crude prices.

Despite oil consumer hopes that falling oil demand in nations like the US and Europe might help ease the tight global oil market, the IEA said much bigger declines in crude consumption are needed because rising costs and equipment shortages are hampering projects and the startup of new supplies.

"We've had very little supply growth this year so far in non-OPEC countries. There are some delayed projects in OPEC countries," said Lawrence Eagles, head of the IEA's oil market division, Dow Jones Newswires.

OPEC countries are pumping "flat out" but, as a result, the 13-nation's spare oil production capacity is now below 2 million barrels a day for the first time since late 2006, the IEA said its June oil market report.

This historically low level of spare capacity, following years of underinvestment, is made all the worse for oil markets and consumers because of struggling non-OPEC supply that is now expected to grow by just 500,000 barrels a day this year, just half the level expected many months ago.

For consumers, the new outlook is likely to mean little relief from today's record level prices, which traded about 70 cents lower in New York on a strengthening US dollar at around USD133.70 a day barrel at 0845 GMT Tuesday.

The Paris-based IEA, which acts as an energy advisor for developed nations, made further reductions to global oil demand growth for this year, as expected, amid recent downward revisions to economic growth rates in the US and several European and Asian nations.

World oil demand is now seen registering growth of just 0.9%, or 800,000 barrels a day, this yearand an expectation for growth of 2.18 million barrels a day last summer. Crude consumption is expected to sink into deeper negative territory in the US and other wealthy nations with demand seen falling by 0.9%, or 450,000 barrels a day in 2008.

Such demand declines in some of the world's biggest consuming nations would normally push crude prices lower, but inadequate supply growth -- amid project delays in OPEC and non-OPEC nations and ailing energy sectors in places like Mexico -- are working to keep the global crude market tight.

Added to the mix is that demand in China, the Middle East, and Russia remains relatively robust despite the economic turbulence elsewhere in the world.

Chinese oil demand, the most important component to the growth in demand globally, was revised up by 50,000 barrels a day from the IEA's May report on the assumption that major reconstruction projects will get underway following the country's devastating earthquake last month.

Recent oil price increases in a host of Asian nations, like India and Malaysia, to combat rising inflation and exploding budgets should "slightly tame" oil demand growth in those countries, but economic growth, at this point, appears to be holding up in those countries, the IEA said.

Oil falls on strong dollar, demand forecasts
Tuesday June 10,

Oil prices fall on strengthening dollar, lowered demand forecasts

NEW YORK -- Oil prices fell Tuesday, giving up an earlier advance as the dollar held its gains against the euro and the Energy Department slashed its oil consumption projections. Retail gasoline prices rose to a new record over $4.04 a gallon.
The dollar rose on recent supportive comments by U.S. officials, prompting selling by investors who had bought commodities such as oil as a hedge against inflation. Also, a stronger dollar makes oil more expensive to investors overseas.

The Energy Department, in a monthly report, indicated that high prices are cutting oil consumption more than expected in the industrialized world. Consumption is now expected to fall by 240,000 barrels a day in 2008; last month, the department forecast consumption would be unchanged from 2007 levels.

That report calmed a market that earlier sent oil up more than $3 on a projection by the International Energy Agency that said global demand will continue to rise, especially in China.

Light, sweet crude for July delivery fell $3.04 to settle at $131.31 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

A weekly report from MasterCard offered additional evidence that high prices are cutting gas consumption: MasterCard's SpendingPulse survey found that demand for gasoline fell 3.8 percent last week compared to the same week last year, and is off 5.2 percent, on average, over the last four weeks compared to the same period of 2007.

Reports that Saudi Arabia has increased oil output by 500,000 barrels a day this quarter, 200,000 barrels a day more than previously thought, added some pressure to the market. Still, analysts said the Saudi move was only a peripheral factor in Tuesday's price drop.

"A couple hundred thousand barrels just isn't enough," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Ill. "The main item here today is the dollar strengthening."

"The dollar is the supreme driver here," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago.

Linda Rafield, senior oil analyst at Platts, the energy research arm of McGraw-Hill Cos., said the Saudi news didn't surprise the market.

Meanwhile, the IEA, in its own monthly report, cut its demand growth forecasts, projecting that global demand for petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel and heating oil will grow by 0.9 percent, or 800,000 barrels a day, in 2008. That's down from the 1.2 percent, or 1 million barrels, the IEA forecast earlier this year.

However, the IEA, an energy adviser to Western industrialized nations, also said demand for fuel for reconstruction work in the aftermath of May's earthquake will boost Chinese oil demand by 5.5 percent this year, a slightly higher forecast than in previous reports.

"A 5.5 percent increase in one of the largest consumers of oil in the world is a lot of barrels of oil," Ritterbusch said.

But the gains were difficult to sustain in the face of a stronger dollar, analysts said.

"You don't get a lot of ... additional buying when the dollar is strong," Ritterbusch said.

Given oil's recent volatility, it shouldn't be too surprising that prices traded in a $7 range Tuesday, Rafield said.

"Seven dollar moves in a day are becoming commonplace," Rafield said.

Gas prices, meanwhile, advanced another 2 cents into record territory Tuesday, reaching a new record national average of $4.043, according to a survey of stations by AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Gas prices are following crude futures higher, and aren't likely to stop rising until crude prices peak.

"When crude tops out, we'll finally start getting some relief at the pump," Ritterbusch said.

In other Nymex trading, July gasoline futures fell 7.47 cents to settle at $3.3193 a gallon, and July heating oil futures fell 6.46 cents to settle at $3.8124 a gallon. July natural gas futures fell 16.9 cents to settle at $12.435 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, July Brent crude fell $2.89 to settle at $131.02 on the ICE Futures exchange.

Oil consumption forecasts cut as prices surge
Tuesday June 10

Energy Department and IEA cut oil consumption forecasts amid surging prices

NEW YORK -- The U.S. Energy Department and the International Energy Agency both lowered their global oil consumption forecasts for this year because of surging prices, but said demand continues to accelerate in developing nations.
The downward revision follows a reduction this month in fuel subsidies by several developing countries that have succumbed to record oil prices. However, the Energy Department and IEA also said demand for oil and fuel continues growing in those regions, particularly in China. Reconstruction work in the aftermath of this year's devastating earthquake will boost Chinese oil demand by 5.5 percent this year, a slightly higher forecast than in previous reports, the IEA said.

The reports raise even more questions about whether the world has inched closer to a tipping point at which high energy prices would force changes in behavior or economic policy.

"There's a debate on that," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. "Some would say we're already there."

Protests are erupting simultaneously from the U.S. and Asia to Europe, as fuel prices cut deeper into the money people need for food and other essentials.

Oil consumption is falling more than expected in the industrialized world, according to the monthly report from the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration. Consumption in nations belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, like Japan, Germany, Britain and the U.S., is now expected to fall by 240,000 barrels a day in 2008. Last month, the department forecast that consumption would be unchanged from last year.

In its own monthly report, the Paris-based IEA, an energy adviser to Western industrialized nations, cut its demand growth forecasts, projecting that global demand for petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel and heating oil will grow by 0.9 percent, or 800,000 barrels a day, in 2008. That's down from the 1.2 percent, or 1 million barrels, the IEA forecast earlier this year.

The Energy Department now expects U.S. gas prices to peak at a monthly average price of $4.15 a gallon in August. That is well above last month's peak forecast of $3.73 a gallon, which was expected to occur in June.

On Tuesday, the average national price of a gallon of regular gas rose 2 cents to $4.043, according to a survey of stations by AAA and the Oil Price Information Service.

The Energy Department also raised its average oil price projection for 2008 to $122 a barrel from $110 a barrel last month. Next year, oil prices will average $126 a barrel, the Energy Department said, up from last month's forecast of $103.

Oil prices surged to a record of $139.12 last week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Tuesday, oil futures traded near $131 a barrel on the Nymex.

"The combination of rising consumption, further downward revisions in the supply outlook for countries outside of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and low surplus production capacity reinforce the perception that supply is having a difficult time keeping up with demand growth," the Energy Department said.

Soaring prices are clearly having an impact on demand. The IEA lowered its 2008 global demand forecast to 86.8 million barrels a day, down 80,000 barrels from last month. The agency steadily lowered demand predictions as oil prices climb.

The Energy Department said global oil consumption will rise this year by 1 million barrels per day, down from last month's forecast that consumption would grow by 1.2 million barrels a day.

The IEA predicted U.S. oil demand would contract by up to 2.5 percent this year to 20.3 million barrels a day.

"Airlines are cutting flights. ... Consumers are protesting and politicians' statements reflect that mood," the report said.

Rising fuel prices, and falling subsidies, have sparked protests around the world.

Yet lower fuel taxes or higher subsidies would, the agency said, be "absolutely the worst response."

U.S. presidential candidate John McCain has proposed suspending gasoline taxes for the summer, and French President Nicolas Sarkozy is pushing for a cap on fuel taxes across the 27-nation European Union.

The IEA is preparing a landmark forecast for later this year on the world's oil supplies through 2030, prompted by concern about the volatility of world oil markets and uncertainty about supply.