Boiling News & Veg Oils ,crude

Oilseeds up despite global losses
17 Jul 2008 20:29 pm

Mumbai – Indian vegetable oilseed futures were trading higher at noon, despite the current weakness in global edible oil markets. The slowing down of rains in July, worry over condition of growing crops and confirmation that oilmeal exports would not be banned is leading to short-covering of yesterday’s losses. The increase in demand and huge overnight gains in the US soy complex are also supporting the gains.



The Malaysian palm oil futures is trading down affected by the current losses in US soy oil and weak demand in the cash market. The US soy complex closed sharply higher overnight, on technical buying and long-range weather concerns. However, strong losses are being seen currently with August soy oil and August soybean quoting down by 50 points and 5.00 cents on e-CBOT.



The Indian markets are trading higher on short-covering of yesterday’s losses, supported by the good demand amid supply tightness in the cash markets ahead of the upcoming festival season. Official comments impact of poor rains on oilseed crops are also supporting the gains.



The removal of fear regarding a probable ban on export of oilmeals is supporting the gains in the market. The Union Food Minister has ruled out rumours of ban on export of oil meal by saying that Government does not have any plan to put a ban on export at present.



The official comments regarding the dismal rains are also supporting the gains. Mr. Rajesh Agrawal, former chairman of the Soybean Processors Association of India [SOPA] has remarked that India’s soybean crop needs more rain in the next 7-10 days, especially in the key growing state of Maharashtra, where farmers are waiting for rain to complete sowing. He added that, Madhya Pradesh where sowing is largely over too required more rain in the next 10 days for the development of the planted crop.



Meanwhile, Mr. B.V. Mehta, executive director of the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India [SEA] said that sowing of oilseeds in four key states of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh have been affected by scant rains. He said if rains do not improve in the next 7-10 days, the oilseeds yield may be impacted in these areas. He added the picture will become clear in the next 10 days, as oilseeds sowing usually conclude in July.



Mr. D.R. Kalra, executive director of the Soybean Processors' Association of India [SOPA] said that sowing in Madhya Pradesh has been normal so far and has been completed in about 95% of last year's area of 4.88 million hectares. However, he added that sowing in Maharashtra has been impacted due to deficient rains and farmers may have to re-sow oilseed crop in some regions.



An official release from the Indian Meteorological Department [IMD] today, showed that rains have decreased during the past week as June 1-July 15 rains has been reported to be 6% above normal, down from 10% above normal for the June 1-July 9 period. In addition, IMD has forecasted subdued rains in west, south and central India for next seven days.



The August soybean contract at National Commodity Derivatives Exchange [NCDEX] at 14.15 hours is trading higher at Rs. 2,729.00 [+ 31.50] per 100 kg with 97,180 tonnes traded. The August contract at National Board of Trade [NBOT] is up at Rs. 2,727.00 [+ 29.50] per 100 kg.



The September mustard seed contract at NCDEX is trading higher at Rs. 681.00 [+ 3.80] per 20 kg, with 60,510 tonnes traded, tracking the gains in soybean markets.



August CPO at Multi Commodity Exchange of India is trading down at Rs. 504.70 [- 1.80] per 10 kg with 3,380 tonnes traded, tracking losses in overseas markets.



Crude Palm Oil [CPO] at the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives [BMD] is trading down affected by the current losses soy oil, weakness in crude oil, lackluster demand in he cash market and record inventories. The benchmark October contract is trading down at MYR 3,444.00 [- 22.00] a tonne with 9,530 lots traded. [MYR=Malaysian Ringitt][1 lot=25 tonnes].

Spot Mustard oil prices - July 17
17 Jul 2008 17:49 pm

Mumbai - Following are Mustard expeller oil prices of various markets in India at morning session. Prices are in Rs. per 10kg, Excluding Value added Tax (VAT).*indicate all paid rates.

Mustard Oil 17/07/08 16/07/08
Min Max Min Max
Mumbai 695 696 692 693
Alwar 662 663 662 663
Bharatpur 662 663 662 663
Bikaner 668 670 665 666
Bundi 657 658 658 659
Charkhi Dadri 690 691 687 688
*Delhi 700 701 698 699
Haldiya port 760 761 760 761
Jaipur 670 671 674 675
Kanpur 702 703 702 703
Kota 665 666 669 670
Ludhiyana 690 691 688 689
Sriganganagar 672 673 672 673

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Spot Groundnut oil prices - July 17
17 Jul 2008 17:48 pm



Mumbai - Following are groundnut oil prices of various markets in India at morning session. All prices are in Rs. per 10kg, Excluding Value added Tax (VAT).

Groundnut oil 17/07/08 16/07/08
Min Max Min Max
Mumbai 725 726 725 726
Rajkot 710 715 700 715
Hyderabad 715 716 710 711
Ahemdabad 710 711 710 715
Chennai 670 671 670 671
Kurnool 690 691 695 696
Narsarropeth 690 691 680 681
Prodattour 680 681 685 686
Bikaner 665 666 665 666

Edible oils decline
Mumbai, Jul 17, 2008 (Asia Pulse Data Source via COMTEX) -- Edible oils declined on the oils and oilseeds market here today on the lack of demand from retailers.

However, castorseeds bold and its oil firmed up further on sustained industrial demand.

In the edible section, groundnut oil dropped by Rs 5 to Rs 720 from Rs 725 previously and refined palmolein eased by Rs 4 to Rs 570 from Rs 574 yesterday.

However, in the industrial section, castorseeds bold moved up further by Rs 25 to Rs 3,325 from Rs 3,300 previously and castoroil commercial looked up by Rs 5 to Rs 695 from Rs 690 yesterday while linseed oil continued to rule steady at Rs 725.

NEW YORK, Jul 17, 2008 (COMTEX) -- Crude oil prices plunged for the third straight day in New York Thursday, dropping to nearly $20 below the record set Friday.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil prices fell $3.37 Thursday to $129.92 per barrel, as analysts worried the weak U.S. economy has forced demand to fall. Friday's record price was above $147 per barrel.

The price of heating oil rose 0.0119 cents in late trading to $3.7557 per gallon. Reformulated blendstock gasoline prices rose 0.0166 cents to $3.1799 per gallon. Natural gas prices rose 0.061 cents to $10.598 per million British thermal units.

At the pump, the national average price of unleaded regular gasoline was unchanged from Wednesday's price of $4.114 per gallon, AAA said.

Energies

The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 104 billion cubic feet last week to 2.312 trillion cubic feet, more than expected. Supplies are now down 14% from a year ago and down 2% from the five-year average. September natural gas closed down 87.3 cents at $10.605, the lowest close in three months.

September crude oil fell $5.14 to $130.18, the third consecutive day lower after yesterday's inventory report showed that U.S. crude oil imports averaged almost 10.8 million barrels per day last week, up from 9.6 million barrels per day the previous week.

Mumbai edible oil prices - July 18
18 Jul 2008 10:35 am

Mumbai - Following are the prices of various edible oils at the Mumbai market as on 10.10 a.m. (IST). All prices are in Rs. per 10kg.Excluding Value added Tax (VAT)

Variety/Day
17/07/08 18/07/08 Change
Sunflower oil Exp
665 660 -5
oil Ref
720 720 -
Groundnut oil
725 720 -5
RBD Palmolein
572 568 -4
Cottonseed oil ref
668 662 -6
Mustard oil
695 692 -3
Ref Soy oil
666 657 -9
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Product: FOB Malaysian ports- July 18
18 Jul 2008 10:35 am

Mumbai - Following rates were quoted for RBD Palmolein in India on FOB Malaysian port conditions. Month
US $/ Per tonnes

Aug
1172.5

Sep
1172.5

Oct
1172.5
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Crude Palm Oil MCX August
18 Jul 2008 8:46 am

The trend is down. Negative candle formation is indicating market might go further down.

Hold on to short positions with a stop loss@ 508 levels.

Support is seen at 504.30 levels. Add more on the breach of the same.

Market might test 502.30 levels.



INTRA-DAY LEVELS

Last Close
Daily Closing Reversal

Point
Level 1
Level 2
Center Point
Level 3
Level 4

505
507.80
502.30
503.70
505.80
507.20
509.30

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Soybean NCDEX August
18 Jul 2008 8:43 am

The trend is up. Doji candle formation is indicating market is indecisive.

Wait for the market to give clear direction. Exit long @ CMP.

Resistance is seen at 2785.50 levels.

Re-enter and buy above resistance levels.

INTRA-DAY LEVELS

Last Close
Daily Closing Reversal

Point
Level 1
Level 2
Center Point
Level 3
Level 4

2697.50
2700
2664.50
2681
2728.50
2756.30
2804.70

Edible oil slides on overseas trend
19 Jul 2008 9:58 am

Mumbai - India's edible oil prices fell during the week ended Friday, tracking a weak trend overseas, said market participants.

Edible oil markets in Malaysia and the US traded mostly lower during the week, tracking a slide in crude oil prices and on speculative sales.

In India, prices of local edible oils move in tandem with international rates, as the country imports nearly half its annual edible oil requirement.

It buys soyoil from Argentina and Brazil and palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia.

Meanwhile, the country's edible oil imports during June rose 82% on month to 550,201 metric tons as importers rushed to ease a supply crunch in local markets, the Solvent Extractors' Association of India said earlier this week.

"The slowdown in imports of vegetable oil during April-May dried up the supply pipeline, hence imports in June increased," said the trade body.

Traders had reduced their inventories due to stock limits imposed by provincial governments.

In the oil marketing year that began in November, edible oil imports as of June totaled 3.1 million tons, up from 2.7 million tons a year earlier, the data showed.

The Solvent Extractors' Association said imports are likely to total around 550,000-600,000 tons per month over the next three to four months - until the summer-sown oilseed crop is available for crushing in November.

"Demand for soyoil is very poor currently, as traders are opting to buy palm oil instead because it is much cheaper," said Prakash Manchare, a trader based in the central Indian province of Madhya Pradesh.

Another factor weighing on prices is the rise in area under oilseed cultivation this summer sowing season, leading to expectations of a bumper crop.

The area used for oilseeds during June 1-July 10 was higher at 8.6 million hectares compared with 8.1 million hectares a year earlier.

Sowing of soybeans was carried out on 5.4 million hectares, up from 4.4 million hectares a year earlier, while groundnuts were sown on 2.46 million hectares, down from 2.60 million hectares.

However, low rainfall in the last few days has been a cause of concern in the central, western and southern parts of the country, with industry experts hoping for good rains in the next 10 days to boost crop growth.

According to Rajesh Agarwal, former chairman of the Soybean Processors Association of India, the soybean crop needs more rain in the next 7-10 days as farmers in Maharashtra are waiting for rain to complete their sowing.

In Madhya Pradesh, the biggest soybean growing state, sowing is largely over, but Agarwal said more rain is needed in the next 10 days for the development of the planted crop.

Local refined soyoil was at Rs 65,700/ton, down from Rs 67,000/ton a week earlier.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm olein was at Rs 57,000/ton, down from Rs 57,200/ton.

Crude palm oil was trading at Rs 50,400/ton, down from Rs 50,500/ton a week earlier.

Soya bean NCDEX Aug - 19/07/08
18 Jul 2008 10:28 pm

Date: 19/07/08

Soya bean NCDEX Aug

The trend is up but the nature of movement is sideways

The market finds the support of 10 day MA level and closed higher

MACD histogram hovering into negative zone but turning up into positive zone upsides move is expected to witness momemtum

Enter fresh long above Rs 2748 with stop loss below Rs 2720

INTRA-DAY LEVELS

Last Close
Daily Closing Reversal

Point
Level 1
Level 2
Center Point
Level 3
Level 4

2705.0
2674.0
2656.0
2681.0
2695.0
2720.0
2734.0

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Castor Seed NCDEX Aug - 19/07/08
18 Jul 2008 7:18 pm

Date: 19/07/08

Castor Seed NCDEX Aug

The trend is up

A breakout has been witnessed and the market closed higher

MACD histogram turned up into positive zone and sustaining this zone one can expect the market to move up.

Enter fresh long above Rs 663.3 with stop loss below Rs 659

Those who are long earlier may book profit or may hold the position with stop loss below Rs 659

INTRA-DAY LEVELS

Last Close
Daily Closing Reversal

Point
Level 1
Level 2
Center Point
Level 3
Level 4

661.0
627.7
640.1
650.6
656.9
667.4
673.7

Oilseeds end down on US soy
19 Jul 2008 2:21 pm

Mumbai – Indian vegetable oilseed futures closed sharply down with the speculative selling seen due to the heavy losses in US soy complex overnight, current weakness in crude oil and removal of controversial soy export tax by Argentina.



The US soy complex closed sharply down overnight on favourable weather outlook and expectation of improvement in global supplies after Argentina said it would revoke a controversial soy export tax.



The Indian markets opened sharply down and traded around the same levels for most of the session. While, international sentiments turned bearish, there were no further negative cues from the Indian markets to push the market further down. At the same time, the positive domestic cues of dull rains, delay in sowing in certain pockets and improvement in domestic demand did not result in any gains, as these were already factored into the market sentiments.



The almost complete sowing of soybean in Madhya Pradesh, the largest soybean producing state in India amid normal crop conditions was also supporting the weak sentiments in the markets.



Idea that global supply tightness in soy markets would dry up with the Argentina Senate voting against the controversial soy export tax led to the weakness in the global markets, which was reflected in the Indian markets today. The market was of the opinion that the revocation of Argentina's sliding export tax would end the strikes that had impeded soy exports during the past four months. The expectation that pent up supplies with farmers in Argentina would be released quickly ahead of the US soybean harvest was also bearish. The export duty on soybeans and other grains would return to levels set by a November resolution, with soy shipments taxed at a fixed 35% rate.



The August soybean contract at National Commodity Derivatives Exchange [NCDEX] closed lower at Rs. 2,684.00 [- 23.50] per 100 kg with 65,370 tonnes traded. The August contract at National Board of Trade [NBOT] ended down at Rs. 2,685.00 [- 20.00] per 100 kg.



August CPO at Multi Commodity Exchange of India closed down at Rs. 485.10 [- 11.10] per 10 kg with 1,520 tonnes traded.



Most active mustard seed September futures on NCDEX closed lower at Rs. 673.00 [+ 11.50] per 20 kg with 74,360.



The US soy complex closed sharply down on Friday on account of the Argentine senate voting against export tax on grains, absence of near term weather threats, slide in crude oil and bad economic outlooks.



Nearby August soybeans dropped 51 cents to $14.70 per bushel, and November soybeans sank 50 cents to $14.48. December soymeal fell $13.10 to $376.80 per short ton, and December soy oil tumbled 138 points to 63.50 cents per pound.



Crude Palm Oil [CPO] at the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives [BMD] closed at fresh 10-week lows on Friday with benchmark October contract settling at MYR 3,392.00 [- 43.00] a tonne with 13,080 lots traded. [MYR=Malaysian Ringitt][1 lot=25 tonnes]



CASTOR SEED



Castor seed futures closed higher continuing the bullish tone in the market. The good demand from crushers, exporters amid limited selling interest was pushing up the cash market too. The lack of rains in major castor tracts, confirmation that the fresh arrivals would not commence as normally seen from late October in Andhra Pradesh and the current dismal arrivals were also adding to the bullish tone. The August castor seed at NCDEX closed higher at Rs. 673.00 [+ 11.50] per 20 kg with 4,020 tonnes traded.

Natural Gas MCX Aug
18 Jul 2008 9:41 am

The trend is down but nature of the movement is sideways.

A hammer like candle has witnessed yesterday coupled with 9 DAY RSI is in oversold zone.

A short covering of recent fall could be witnessed.

Ideally, cover all earlier short positions at market price and on dips to Rs. 490.80 – Rs. 482.10 as the opportunity arises.

Support will be at Rs. 480.

Sell only on fall and close below Rs. 480..

INTRA-DAY LEVELS

Last Close
Daily Closing Reversal

Point
Trend
Level 1
Level 2
Center Point
Level 3
Level 4

492.8
529.7

471.5
482.1
490.8
501.4
510.1