Cotton

Hi To All .

ny market bearish march -119 points.

cotton future bullish.ny can cross 80 cents by march.

cotton market looking active.

cotton trend bullish ,gujrat 21600, maharashtra,21000,m.p.20800, north 2210/- per maund cover your positions.

india to export 1.5 millPakistan: Import of 1m cotton bales from India

By Nauman Tasleem

LAHORE: Around one million bales of cotton will arrive from India in the coming three months, the textile industry sources told Daily Times on Thursday.

The industry has also finalised deal of import of five hundred thousand bales of short-staple cotton. They said that the import of cotton would ease the pressure in local market.





















The textile industry in the country was facing cotton shortage because of decrease in local production and the millers made contract with the Indian cotton producers for importing of cotton. These millers have made deals of import around one million bales with the Indian businessmen and the quantity will be imported by the end of March. However, the cotton importers are facing problem because of short time of border opening at Wagah border, said All Pakistan Textile Association (APTA) chairman Adil Mahmood. He said that the deals have been finalised with the Indian traders and only a few Indian traders back out from the deals owing increase in cotton prices.

“The big companies however have given us a green signal,” said the chairman adding that if the Wagah border is opened for more time then import of cotton would be eased. Currently, border is opened from 10am to 3:30pm and during that 55 trucks carrying tomatoes are coming from India and a very small quantity of cotton is being imported. If the border is opened for two hours more then more trucks can transport good quantity of cotton. He said that in addition to the raw cotton, around five hundred thousand bales of short staple would also be imported.

“In current circumstances, five hundred thousand short staple cotton via land route through Wagah Border from India shall support the textile industry of the country,” he said adding that enhancement from 0.5 to 1 million bales of importable quantity of short staple cotton would revive the textile industry.

About the rate of Indian cotton, he said that majority of deals were signed at the rate of 64 cent per pound and it is almost equal to local rates. “The Indian cotton has less waste whereas, the local cotton has more waste. In this way, its cost equals to the local cost,” he added.
ion bales to pakistan.

INTERNATIONAL:
India - About 20.39 million local bales (or 15.9 million 480 lb bales) has arrived at gins out of the CAB
production estimate of 31 million (24.2), implying 66% of the crop. Ginners’ estimates suggest an even
higher arrival amount. From this point forward, farmers will be slow to deliver their cotton to the gin;
they are rather bullish and have enough financial stamina to hold back seed cotton if prices do not suit
them. On top of that, ginners in Gujarat, the biggest export market for Indian cotton, seem to be losing
money at current seed cotton prices and at the lint per candy levels. Currently, many ginners are operating
at 50% of their capacity. Quality concerns are becoming more and more of an issue with micronaire
dropping in Maharashtra and staple in the Gujarat slightly below 1 1/8.” Local business during the last
week was very slow, in part due to the volatility of the NYK market, the lack of general price direction
and the ginners past aggressive/expensive seed cotton buying. Furthermore, the export business turned
sluggish after the recent drop in NYK futures, making the relation between Indian and U.S. prices less
attractive. Based off the Cotlook Daily C&F Far East quotes of like qualities to a middling 1-3/32, the
gap between India’s H4/MECH-1/Bunny and the U.S. cheapest growth MOT has narrowed to 200 pts.
from a recent high of 525. There are rumors of cancellations or non-shipments to Pakistan of low priced
contracts. Recently, the Pakistan government announced import permission for short staple cotton.

cotton market to go up in future.Cotton futures have continued to consolidate in the 68-69 cent range, basis the New York March contract, while attempting to recoup the limit down losses of January 23. Near term price activity should continue in a consolidation phase with a slightly negative bias simply because of the beginning of the Chinese New Year, a weeklong celebration that will see the closure or slow down of many textile mills. Absent the New Year celebrations, the price bias would be higher. Thus, pressured by good demand and in the face of a declining acreage, cotton prices remain on a longer term upward path.

Nevertheless, until the planting season in the Northern Hemisphere has concluded, the outside markets, principally the grains, oilseeds, financial and equity markets will likely influence cotton prices more than actual cotton fundamentals. Consequently, the cotton market will continue to face strong price volatility. However, it is the uncertainty surrounding energy and financial markets that seems to be in near term control of cotton.

Export sales for the week ending January 24, while strong, were considerably less than expected, thus proving to be very disappointing to the market. Net sales totaled 300,700 RB with Upland sales of 291,400 RB and Pima sales of 15,600 RB. Primary buyers of Upland were China (140,800 RB); Taiwan and Vietnam. The primary buyers of Pima were India (5,400 RB); Pakistan and Bangladesh. Sales of 500,000 to 750,000 RB had been expected. Yet, it is noted that China was a large scale buyer on the market dip below 67.50 cents that week. There is considerable demand waiting any other drop to or near 67.50 cents. However, February brings us First Notice Day for the March contract. Therefore, May futures will become the spot month suggesting it is likely that Asian mills must increase their offering price some 150 to 200 points.

Export shipments totaled 211,200 RB on the week and were comprised of 185,500 RB of Upland and 25,400 RB of Pima. Primary destinations of Upland were Mexico (34,400 RB); China and Turkey. Primary destinations of Pima were India (8,200 RB); Pakistan and China.

There are very mixed signals regarding the health of their respective textile economies surfacing from various countries. However, it is noted that world consumption is slowing; or rather the growth rate is slowing. Net textile consumption is not declining, but rather has slowed to a near zero growth rate. Yet, with higher cotton prices it is logical to see some slow down in textile consumption. However, world production is also declining and in turn that will allow for cotton prices to move higher.

With the December contract pressing 77 cents, the 80 cent objective remains the next hurdle. That barrier is not likely to be breached until after the planting season has been completed. Nevertheless, it is too early to begin pricing the 2008 crop. Those growers needing to offset some of their price risk could consider buying put option under the market, but will likely need to roll those puts higher as the market climbs.

international cotton rates as uCotton Prices 01st February 2008

CIF/ CNF offers Chinese, Asian Ports - Prices in US C/lbs




Shipment Period

USA
FiberMax SM 1-5/32" 77.43-79.43 -0.75 Jan/Mar 08
FiberMax SM 1-1/8" 76.27-78.27 -0.75 Jan/Mar 08
FiberMax GC 31-3-36 75.27-77.27 -0.75 Jan/Mar 08
E/MOT SM 1-1/8" 75.27-76.77 -0.75 Jan/Mar 08
E/MOT GC 31-3-35 74.27-75.27 -0.75 Jan/Mar 08
E/MOT 41-4-34 72.27-73.27 -0.75 Jan/Mar 08
SJV 21-2-38 85.27-86.27 -0.75 Jan/Mar 08
SJV 21-2-36 83.27-84.27 -0.75 Jan/Mar 08
Calif/ Az SM 1-1/8" 76.00-78.00 -0.75 Jan/Mar 08
INDIA
Shankar - 6 SM 1-1/8 72.20-74.20 UNCH Jan 08
Shankar - 6 SM 1-5/32 73.20-75.20 UNCH Jan 08
H-4 1-3/32 71.45-73.45 UNCH Jan 08
J-34 SLM 1-1/32" - 1-1/16" 74.75-75.75 UNCH Jan 08
J-34 SLM 1-1/16" - 1-1/32" 75.50-76.50 UNCH Jan 08
Bunny 1-5/32" 74.25-75.75 UNCH Jan 08
MCU -5 31.5 MM 78.25-79.25 UNCH Jan 08
CENTRAL ASIAN
Uzbekistan GM 1-5/32 78.00-80.00 -0.50 Jan-Mar 08
Uzbekistan SM/ GM 1-1/8" 77.00-79.00 -0.50 Jan-Mar 08
Uzbekistan M 1-3/32" 75.00-77.00
-0.50 Jan-Mar 08
Uzbekistan SM 1-1/8" 79.00-82.00 -0.50 Jan-Mar 08
BRAZIL
Brazilian SM 1-1/8" 76.94-77.94 -0.50 Feb-Mar 08
BrazilM 1-1/8" 74.94-76.94 -0.50 Feb-Mar 08
Brazil SM 1-1/8" 83.04-84.04 -0.60 Aug-Dec 08
Brazilian M 1-1/8" G-5 81.84-83.84 -0.60 Aug-Dec 08
Brazil SLM 1-1/8" 80.84-82.84 -0.60 Aug-Dec 08
Brazil SLM 1-1/8" 79.94-80.95
-0.60 Aug-Dec 08
AUSTRALIAN
Andy SM 1-1/8"- 2007 Crop` 81.75-83.75 -0.75 Jan-Mar 08
GM 1-1/8" 84.75-86.75` -0.75 Jan-Mar 08
WEST AFRICAN
Burkina Faso Bola/S 1-1/8"
75.75-77.00
-0.50 Jan-Mar 08

Burkina Faso Rudy 1-3/32"
75.75-76.75 -0.50 Jan-Mar 08

Burkina Faso Bola/S 1-1/8" 77.50-79.00
-0.50 Jan-Mar 08

Burkina Faso Rudy 1-3/32" 76.50-78.00 -0.50 Jan-Mar 08

Ivory Coast Manbo/S 1-1/8 76.50-77.75 -0.50 Jan-Mar 08

Ivory Coast Bema 1-3/32 75.25-75.75 -0.50 Jan-Mar 08

Mali T-Juli/S 1-1/8" 76.50-77.50 -0.50 Jan-Mar 08

Mali M 1-3/32"
75.50-76.50
-0.50 Jan-Mar 08

Mali T-Juli/S 1-1/8"
77.25-78.50 -0.50 Jan-Mar 08

Mali M 1-3/32"
76.25-77.50 -0.50 Apr-May 08

Benin T-Kaba/S 1-1/8" 76.50-77.50 -0.50 Jan-Mar 08

Benin T-Bola 1-3/32" 75.50-76.50 -0.50 Jan-Mar 08

Benin T-Kaba/S 1-1/8" 78.25-79.50 -0.50 Apr-May 08

Benin T-Bola 1 1-1/32" 77.25-78.50
-0.50 Apr-May 08

Cameroon Irma/S 1-3/32" 75.50-76.50 -0.50 Jan-Mar 08

ELS/PIMA

U.S Pima 2-1-7-/16 108.00-110.00 UNCH Jan-Mar 08
U.S Pima 3-1-7/16 114.00-116.00 UNCH Nov-Dec 08
Central Asian ELS 1-7/16 79.50-81.50 UNCH Jan-Mar 08
Egyption Giza 86 G/ FG 91.00-95.00 UNCH Jan-Feb 08
Egyption Giza 88 G/ FG 111.00-113.00 UNCH Jan-Feb 08
MMF Prices JANUARY 2008

Local Contracts (US$ per ton)
Month
JANUARY
2008
DECEMBER
2007
JANUARY
2007

Polyester : PTA

China (CFR) 860-865 830-860 860-870
USA (Delivered) *neg 1082 1039
Western Europe (Del) Preious
- 1175-1315 1085-1190
Western Europe (Del) New Market *neg *813-912 833-913
Polyester : MEG
Far East (CFR)
*1590-1630 1590 900-930
USA (FOB)
1645-1685 1645 955-983
Western Europe (Delivered)
1720 1740 1000
€ Ton
1175 1205 768
Acrylics : Acrylonitrile
Far East (CFR) 1880-1930 1920-1950 1550-1600
USA (FOB) 1864-1952 1801-1889 1360-1425
Western Europe (Delivered) - 2520-2700 2130-2290
€ Ton *neg 1745-1870 1635-1755
Acrylic : Fibre Prices
Asia / Far East (C+F) Regional China c/kg 222-230 225-232 198-203
USA (C+F) 3 denier tow imports c/lb 115-120 115-120 105-110
Exchange Rates 02nd Feb 2008

Currency
Selling TT & OD Buying TT
Clean Buying O/D T/Cheques Selling
C/Notes Buying
C/Notes
USD
62.8400 62.6400 62.4444 63.78 61.70
GBP
123.3989 123.0062 122.5815 125.25 121.16
EUR
92.9718 92.6759 92.3712 94.37 91.37
JPY
0.591101 0.589220 0.588058 - -
CHF
57.7574 57.5735 57.4600 58.62 56.71
CAD
63.0101 62.8096 62.6857 - -
Bill Buying Rates Per Unit of Currency 2nd Feb 2008

Currency
30 Days 60 Days 90 Days 120 Days 150 Days 180 Days
USD L/C
62.15 61.66 61.17 60.68 60.19 59.71
China ZCE Cotton Rates 02nd Feb 2008

Prod
Last Cshg Vol Open Int.
CF803 14305 -5 8 3422
CF805 14650 -5 3984 66558
CF807 14955 0 4258 23384
CF809 15420 15 102 1298


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Cotlook Index

01st Feb 2008


A index = 72.35

B index = 73.45


NYC US cent/lb

01st Feb 2008

Contract Last Change
Mar 08 68.16 +0.37
May 08 70.08 +0.38
Jul 08 71.88 +0.37
Oct 08 74.63 +0.46
Dec 08 76.69 +0.29

cotton seed trend bullish.can touch 1500/-per qtl.end march. you can inquire why so.reply.