Cotton

Cotton Prices May Be Boosted by Lower Production

28 July 2008 - Cotton prices are now rising on the international market, ignoring the overall decline in commodities. A lack of rain in India may result in a lower output than previously expected while China is also reducing its production forecast. With farmers this year shifting to other crops, cotton stocks may sharply drop in the next season, resulting in much higher price levels in 2008-09 and 2009-10, a leading cotton merchant Friday announced.

Polyester Fibre and Yarn Prices in Pakistan

29 July 2008 - Polyester yarn prices were significantly raised in the last weeks in Pakistan, in line with a sharp increase in staple fiber prices. With cotton prices also rising at the same time, blended yarn prices continued climbing, as indicated by a series of statistical tables released by our Pakistan Correspondent. An anti-dumping investigation is being launched on PSF imports from China, in addition.

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Polyester Prices Expected Falling in China

29 July 2008 - Polyester producers in China are under strong pressure for reducing their offers in the near term. Their raw material costs heavily fell in the last week, in line with a sharp drop in oil prices. Demand for polyester fibers is remaining at a low level, as processors are waiting for lower prices. There may be some serious drop in polyester prices in the coming weeks in China.

cotton outlook

CNCE mixed (3:25 GMT 30th Jul, 2008)
China Cotton Index (3:19 GMT 30th Jul, 2008)
Investment on China’s textile industry turned slower (3:06 GMT 30th Jul, 2008)
The Seam trading confined to grower side (21:05 GMT 29th Jul, 2008)
New York cotton futures rebound, settle on moderate gains (19:22 GMT 29th Jul, 2008)
ICE cotton lower in light trade (16:02 GMT 29th Jul, 2008)
Southern US crop progressing well, receiving scattered rain (13:10 GMT 29th Jul, 2008)
Cotton and the Doha round (11:21 GMT 29th Jul, 2008)
Indian export registration: terms and conditions (10:29 GMT 29th Jul, 2008)
New York speculators marginally long (10:27 GMT 29th Jul, 2008)
Disputes on development of Xinjiang's cotton industry (9:45 GMT 29th Jul, 2008)

Spot rate surges by Rs 75 on strong demand

KARACHI (July 31 2008): Short production and other costs pushed the official spot rate sharply higher on the cotton market on Wednesday, dealers said. The Karachi Cotton Association (KCA) official spot rate after maintaining a stable trend was further raised by Rs 75 in a single day rally at Rs 3975, they said.

In the ready business, phutti prices were unchanged at Rs 2050-2100 in Punjab and in Sindh prices were modestly higher by Rs 25 to 2000-2025, dealers said. A deal of 200 bales of cotton from Garma Raja sold at Rs 4250 due to high demand by the exporters and mills, they said. Cottonseed rates went up in both Punjab and Sindh at Rs 850-900, they said.

Some brokers said that early arrival of phutti propelled the leading buyers to make forward buying, the size of phutti is not enough to meet their demand hence unprecedented increase in the rates. They also said that recent rains are good for the crop and there are not much worries about the damage by the mealy bug and other farm diseases.

In the meantime, it is expected that if the rates of oil come down, the prices of cotton may show slight fluctuations. On Tuesday, the NY cotton futures were higher amid modest trading, dealers said.

THE FOLLOWING DEALS WERE REPORTED: some 600 bales of cotton from Shahdadpur sold at Rs 4190-4200, 300 bales from Hyderabad at Rs 4200, 200 bales from Sanghar at Rs 4200, 400 bales from Chichawatni at Rs 4200, 1000 bales from Mian Channu at Rs 4200, 1000 bales from Burewala at Rs 4175-4200, 200 bales from Hasilpur at Rs 4200, 200 bales from Gojra at Rs 4200, 200 bales from Arifwala at Rs 4200, 200 bales from Bhawalnagar at Rs 4200, 200 bales from Kassowal at Rs 4200 and 400 bales from Pakpattan at Rs 4200, dealers said.

================================================== =========
The KCA Official Spot Rate for Local Dealings in Pak Rupees
-----------------------------------------------------------
FOR BASE GRADE 3 STAPLE LENGTH 1-1/32"
MICRONAIRE VALUE BETWEEN 3.8 TO 4.9 NCL
================================================== =========
Rate Ex-Gin Upcountry Spot Rate Ex-Karachi
for Price Sales Tax @ 15%
================================================== =========
37.32 Kgs 3975.00 50 4025.00
-----------------------------------------------------------
Equivalent
-----------------------------------------------------------
40 Kgs 4260.00 50 4310.00
================================================== =========

ICE cotton slips in sideways chart trade
31 Jul 2008 10:19 am

New York - ICE Futures US cotton settled just below unchanged Wednesday as a dearth of news left traders technically charting their way through sideways trade.

Analysts expect cotton to extend light trade sideways-to-higher in the near term.

Most-active December futures settled 16 points lower at 74.32 cents a pound and the nearby October contract settled down 26 points at 71.40.

Cotton opened slightly higher and chopped back and forth, expanding its intraday range with each move. Futures pushed up to the session high, 74.75 basis December, and shortly after scraped 74.09, the session low. The market trimmed losses ahead of the settlement to end near unchanged.

Futures could easily move to the upside, especially if they get a nudge from news, analysts said.

"Without having any type of substantial selling pressure coming in, the market is freed up to cross 75 cents," said Rob Kurzatkowski, futures analyst at optionsXpress in Chicago.

Weather conditions could boost prices above their trading range, analysts said. However, weather is quiet in West Texas, where nearly one-third of the 2008-09 US cotton crop is expected to be planted, said Boyd Cruel, senior softs analyst at Alaron Trading in Chicago.

Mostly dry conditions are expected in Texas in the northwest with a few showers or thunderstorms in the southeast, according to private forecaster Meteorlogix. The state is expected to see mostly dry conditions or a few isolated showers Friday through Sunday, Meteorlogix said.

ICE daily cotton stocks decreased by 2,469 480-pound bales Tuesday to total 1.745 million bales with 3,797 awaiting review.

ICE cotton open interested decreased by 726 positions Tuesday to total 220,067, according to the exchange. Volume was estimated 5,879 lots. In options, approximately 7,244 calls and 628 puts traded, according to exchange data.

Close Change Range
Oct 71.40 -26 pts 71.29-71.78
Dec 74.32 -16 pts 74.09-74.75
Mar 79.69 -23 pts 79.53-80.06

Cotton lint slightly down in north
30 Jul 2008 4:16 pm

Abohar – Cotton lint prices were quoted slightly lower at major markets across north India Wednesday. Prices have weakened as buying has almost stopped at the higher level. Meanwhile, the statement by Union Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar that cotton exports would not be banned immediately failed to have any impact on the market.

Looking at the shortage of cotton after heavy exports, the Central government has proposed to allow export of 80 lakh bales of cotton. The proposal was discussed in a Secretarial-level meeting and has been forwarded to the Agriculture Ministry, sources said.

In Punjab, cotton lint traded at Rs 2,900-Rs 2,905/maund at Budhaldha, Taapa and Rampura; Rs 2,890-Rs 2,900/maund at Malot and Bathinda; Rs 2,890/maund at Abohar; and Rs 2,880/maund at Manasa.

Cotton lint traded at Rs 2,800-Rs 2,860/maund in Haryana and at Rs 2,760-Rs 2,810/maund in Rajasthan.

KCA spot rate raised again by Rs 75 to Rs 4,050

KARACHI (August 01 2008): Spot rate was further increased for the second day in a row on the cotton market on Thursday, dealers said. The Karachi Cotton Association (KCA) again raised official spot rate by Rs 75 to Rs 4050, they said. In the ready business, phutti prices were unchanged at Rs 2050-2100 in Punjab and in Sindh prices were also same at Rs 2000-2025, dealers said.

Market sources said that recent rains are good for the cotton crop but if the cotton export continues, the country would face more shortage. They also said that instead of exporting cotton, the country can earn more than Rs 6 billion by making yarn and textile products.

On Wednesday, the NY cotton futures settled lower in see-saw trade featuring small investors, and brokers said the market may drift due to a paucity of leads to provide it near-term direction. The key December cotton contract slipped 0.16 cent to close at 74.32 cents per lb, dealing from 74.09 to 74.75 cents. Volume traded in the December contract stood at 5,022 lots at 2:40 pm EDT (1840 GMT).

THE FOLLOWING DEALS WERE REPORTED: some 600 bales of cotton from Shahdadpur sold at Rs 4190-4250, 200 bales from Garmaraja at Rs 4300, 200 bales from Mian Channu at Rs 4250, 300 bales from Bhawalnigar at Rs 4200, 200 bales from Burewala at Rs 4200, 200 bales from Qabula at Rs 4200, 100 bales from Kasowal at Rs 4200, 100 bales from Chichawatni at Rs 4200, 100 bales from Bhawalpur at Rs 4200, 100 bales from Tandelwala a Rs 4200, 200 bales from Pakpattan done at Rs 4200, 200 bales from Arifwala at Rs 4250, dealers said.

================================================== =========
The KCA Official Spot Rate for Local Dealings in Pak Rupees
-----------------------------------------------------------
FOR BASE GRADE 3 STAPLE LENGTH 1-1/32"
MICRONAIRE VALUE BETWEEN 3.8 TO 4.9 NCL
================================================== =========
Rate Ex-Gin Upcountry Spot Rate Ex-Karachi
for Price Sales Tax @ 15%
================================================== =========
37.32 Kgs 4050.00 50 4100.00
-----------------------------------------------------------
Equivalent
-----------------------------------------------------------
40 Kgs 4340.00 50 4390.00
================================================== =========

New York cotton futures a touch higher

NEW YORK (August 01 2008): Cotton futures settled almost unchanged on Thursday in subdued dealings and the market may drift, given the lack of leads or direction in fiber contracts, brokers said. The key December cotton contract added 0.18 cent to close at 74.50 cents per lb, dealing from 74.07 to 74.97 cents. Volume traded in the December contract stood at 6,242 lots at 2:37 pm EDT (1837 GMT).

"We're sitting on the fence right here," said Mike Stevens, an analyst for brokers SFS Futures in Mandeville, Louisiana. He said the contract would need to close above the Wednesday high of 74.75 cents or below that day's low of 74.09 cents to generate more action in the market. As things stand, "there's no conviction" in cotton futures, Stevens added.

Analysts said cotton may just be content to drift and look to next month as the start of the 2008/09 marketing year gets under way. Stevens said "major buy-stops should be found above 75.20-75.33" cents in the December contract. "A close above that area sets up first a test of 76.72 but ultimately a test of a trend line just above 78 (cents)," he concluded.

In the longer-term, industry analysts feel cotton is looking bullish because ending stocks are seen dropping sharply due to lower supplies in 2008/09 brought on by smaller cotton plantings. Broker Flanagan Trading Corp sees resistance in the December contract at 75.25 cents, with support at 73.60 and 72.50 cents. Volume traded Wednesday hit 7,003 lots, exchange data showed. Open interest in the cotton market rose 949 lots to 221,016 lots as of July 30, exchange data showed.

China Cotton Index (2:41 GMT 1st Aug, 2008)
Prices, activity increases on Grower side (21:07 GMT 31st Jul, 2008)
New York settles marginally higher (20:06 GMT 31st Jul, 2008)
Midday cotton futures marginally higher (16:44 GMT 31st Jul, 2008)
Thundershowers possible in southern US, dry elsewhere (15:40 GMT 31st Jul, 2008)
US Export Sales - in detail (12:46 GMT 31st Jul, 2008)
US Export Sales - in brief (12:35 GMT 31st Jul, 2008)
Nearby purchasing remains active in Bangladesh (11:05 GMT 31st Jul, 2008)
India - lull in rains (10:05 GMT 31st Jul, 2008)
China’s cotton planting cost rises and farmers anticipate higher prices (9:00 GMT 31st Jul, 2008)
Brazilian harvest in full swing (8:32 GMT 31st Jul, 2008)

My07/08 sales 36,800 (indonesia 17,500)(vietnam 12,400)(turkey 6,900)
(india 6,100)
decreases (china 8,000)(japan 4,100)(unknown 1,500)(south korea 1,100)
sales my08/09 166,100 (turkey 34,500)(india 32,700)(china 21,900)
(indonesia 18,000)(vietnam 9,500)
pima 07/08 600 (india 700)(china 400)(south korea 200)
decreases (indonesia 600)
exports my07/08 253,500 pima 3,700
u.s. Export sales for the week ending 07/31/08
(in