Cotton

Commodity Futures Price Quotes For
NYBOT Cotton #2.......Month
Click for chart Session Pr.Day Options
Open High Low Last Time Sett Chg Vol Sett OpInt
Cash - - - 73.81 * Feb 25, 09:53 - - - - - n/a
May 08 70.90 73.35 70.50 72.18 Apr 07, 11:32 - 1.32 9195 70.86 83266 Call Put
Jul 08 74.03 76.80 74.03 75.72 Apr 07, 11:32 - 1.33 5544 74.39 78432 Call Put
Oct 08 79.50 79.50 79.50 79.50 Apr 07, 09:22 - 0.98 7 78.52 2346 Call Put
Dec 08 81.44 83.80 81.44 82.76 Apr 07, 11:28 - 1.32 4252 81.44 89740 Call Put
Mar 09 85.50 86.40 85.50 86.15 Apr 07, 10:26 - 2.10 26 84.05 7429 Call Put
May 09 - - - 84.93 * Apr 04, 17:55 - - 2 84.93 557 Call Put
Jul 09 - - - 85.98 * Apr 04, 17:55 - - 40 85.98 893 Call Put
Oct 09 - - - 86.48 * Apr 04, 17:55 - - - 86.48 69 Call Put
Dec 09 88.12 88.50 88.12 88.50 Apr 07, 11:26 - 1.24 42 87.26 2847 Call Put
Mar 10 - - - 88.91 * Apr 04, 17:55 - - - 88.91 50 Call Put
May 10 - - - 89.41 * Apr 04, 17:55 - - - 89.41 - Call Put
Jul 10 - - - 89.91 * Apr 04, 17:55 - - - 89.91 1331 Call Put
Oct 10 - - - 90.41 * Apr 04, 17:55 - - - 90.41 7 Call Put
Dec 10 - - - 91.71 * Apr 04, 17:55 - - - 91.71 34 Call Put
Mar 11 - - - 91.71 * Apr 04, 17:55 - - - 91.71 - Call Put

April 6, 2008

By: O.A. Cleveland, Ph.D. | Biography

New York futures prices continued their now three week old attempt to consolidate price activity in a rage consistent with the economics of cotton fundamentals. That said, cotton prices have traded 2000 to 2500 points lower the past several years with supply demand fundamentals not much different than what we now observe. Thus, to say current prices are “in a rage consistent with the economics of cotton fundamentals” requires some explaining. The principal difference between 2008-09 fundamentals and to 2002-2007 fundamentals is the obvious decision by U.S. growers to substantially reduce 2008 cotton plantings. This difference is a function of the current biofuel crisis and the world food crisis that is finally beginning to be recognized. It is for these two reasons that since October 2007 I have been very bullish the cotton market. Yet, now with nearby cotton futures contract some ten cents higher that it was in October, the old crop May and July contracts have likely reached an equilibrium level that will hold for four to six weeks. The May contract will likely spend most of its time between 72 and 74 cents, but could see a trading range between 67 and 77 cents. The new crop December 2008 contract will continue to find firm support with a higher bias.

Yet, with nearly one million bales of certificated stocks already on the market, a strong sponsor of those stocks must appear if May futures are to be prevented from falling into the 63-66 cent range. However, should such a tumble surface, it would be very short lived. The May contract is now trading with one eye on first notice day (April 24) will trade. The concern that a strong sponsor (merchant) will surface does generate some questions. Cotton merchants suffered major liquidity problems as a result of established bona fide hedges that had to be protected with the futures market made a total disconnect from the cash market during the first two weeks of March. Taking delivery of the certificated stocks would be a 300 to 400 million dollar undertaking.

This week’s March Plantings Intentions Report, 9.39 million acres, was in line with expectations and had no surprises. Georgia and New Mexico will see minor increases while all other states will see reductions. Just as in 2007, Midsouth plantings are expected to again see major reductions. Mississippi, once the center of cotton activity will have only 420,000 acres, down almost a million acres from just five years ago. More surprising, and most notable is that Texas and Georgia will have about 62 percent of all the upland cotton grown in the U.S. Texas, with intentions to plant 4.7 million acres, will have just slightly more than 50 percent of the U.S. plantings.

USDA is set to release its April supply demand report this week. I expect U.S. production to be increased about 400,000 bales (based on ginning reports). Additionally, USDA could reduce exports another 500,000 bales. Both changes are somewhat expected by the market, thus they should not be judged as bearish. The net result could take U.S. ending stocks to about 10.4 to10.5 million bales, a record high. World ending stocks will likely be about 60 million bales. Carryover levels of this magnitude are bearish for the short run. However, the possibility of a 2008 U.S. crop of only 14.0 to 14.5 million bales will support December at higher prices.

Coal shortage to increase in coming years: WCL

Nagpur, April 08: Coal shortage is expected to increase in the coming years following a spurt in demand from new or proposed coal-based power plants, according to Western Coalfields Ltd (WCL) chairman and managing director D C Garg.

WCL alone faced a shortage of 6 million tonnes of coal last fiscal. Ministry of Coal, Government of India, had allotted it linkages to the tune of around 52 million tonnes while the company was able to produce only 43.5 million tonnes, he told reporters here.

The demand and supply gap would increase in the coming years as most of the new power plants are coal based, he said.

More than 75 percent of WCL`s coal linkages are to power projects in Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka and northern India. The rest are for cement, steel, paper and other industries and small consumers.

WCL will achieve its peak production level of 45 million tonnes in 2013, after which the production would decline. New mines would have to be opened fast to meet the increase in demand, Garg added.

High food prices seen leading to strikes, protests in Asia

Singapore, April 08: Asia's governments face strikes, protests and hoarding in response to the spiralling cost of food and other essentials that threatens to damage them at the polls, observers say.

Asia's political leaders are on guard, wary of the potential for social unrest as people across the region struggle to cope with steeper prices for staple goods, particularly rice.

"There will be unrest and the poorer countries will experience that much more than rich countries like Malaysia and Singapore," said Ooi Kee Beng, a fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

Poverty-stricken Bangladesh and the Philippines have been particularly hard hit by higher food prices.

"Soaring food prices have become a serious threat for the survival of the present caretaker government," said Bangladeshi political scientist Ataur Rahman.

"There could now be serious discontent, violence and food riots due to the soaring food price spikes," said Rahman.

Bangladeshis and poor Indonesians are estimated to spend close to 70 percent or more of their income on food.

In the philippines, one of the world's biggest importers of rice, the government deployed troops last week to deliver grain to poor areas of the capital manila amid worries about shortages.

It also ordered police to arrest rice hoarders as part of efforts to pre-empt the "impact on peace and order" of rises in basic commodity prices, the police said.

USDA's global supply and demand figures (13:05 GMT 9th Apr, 2008)
USDA domestic supply and demand (12:51 GMT 9th Apr, 2008)
Indian crop data (10:25 GMT 9th Apr, 2008)
Italian market remains quiet (10:12 GMT 9th Apr, 2008)
Indonesian raw cotton trading activity (8:34 GMT 9th Apr, 2008)
Picking still limited in Australia (8:21 GMT 9th Apr, 2008)
ZCE moves lower (8:06 GMT 9th Apr, 2008)
Rainy weather prevalent in China (6:51 GMT 9th Apr, 2008)
CNCE settles mixed (3:23 GMT 9th Apr, 2008)
China Cotton Index (2:19 GMT 9th Apr, 2008)
Sales mixed on The Seam (21:23 GMT 8th Apr, 2008)

Cash - - - 73.81 * Feb 25, 09:53 - - - - - n/a
May 08 71.90 74.25 71.80 74.02 Apr 09, 14:59 73.85 1.91 13611 71.94 71376 Call Put
Jul 08 75.49 77.64 75.33 77.41 Apr 09, 14:58 77.24 1.75 10638 75.49 89017 Call Put
Oct 08 79.70 79.70 79.70 79.70 Apr 09, 02:55 81.55 1.90 31 79.65 2367 Call Put
Dec 08 82.55 84.75 82.41 84.50 Apr 09, 14:41 84.53 1.86 4806 82.67 90491 Call Put
Mar 09 85.55 87.45 85.44 87.40 Apr 09, 14:09 87.41 2.04 357 85.37 7575 Call Put
May 09 86.38 87.12 86.29 87.12 Apr 09, 10:36 88.31 2.04 3 86.27 559 Call Put
Jul 09 87.25 87.92 87.14 87.71 Apr 09, 10:36 89.19 2.04 3 87.15 1064 Call Put
Oct 09 - 89.80 89.80 89.80 Apr 08, 17:31 89.80 2.12 - 87.68 69 Call Put
Dec 09 88.15 88.98 88.09 88.53 Apr 09, 10:57 90.29 1.92 66 88.37 2938 Call Put
Mar 10 - 91.70 91.70 91.70 Apr 08, 17:31 91.70 1.82 - 89.88 50 Call Put
May 10 - 92.20 92.20 92.20 Apr 08, 17:31 92.20 1.82 - 90.38 - Call Put
Jul 10 - 92.70 92.70 92.70 Apr 08, 17:31 92.70 1.32 1 91.38 1331 Call Put
Oct 10 - 93.20 93.20 93.20 Apr 08, 17:31 93.20 1.32 - 91.88 7 Call Put
Dec 10 94.90 94.90 94.90 94.90 Apr 09, 13:59 94.55 1.42 - 93.13 34 Call Put
Mar 11 - 94.55 94.55 94.55 Apr 08, 17:31 94.55 1.42 - 93.13 - Call Put

CBOT Soybean Oil (ECBOT)
Month
Click for chart Session Pr.Day Options
Open High Low Last Time Sett Chg Vol Sett OpInt
May 08 55.89 58.34 55.80 58.05 Apr 09, 13:39 58.07 2.23 32355 55.84 83099 n/a
Jul 08 56.72 59.07 56.65 58.80 Apr 09, 13:39 58.78 2.21 17856 56.57 91931 n/a
Aug 08 57.00 59.40 57.00 58.80 Apr 09, 13:39 59.11 2.21 1570 56.90 13425 n/a
Sep 08 57.80 59.65 57.48 58.96 Apr 09, 13:39 59.35 2.20 1162 57.15 9740 n/a
Oct 08 58.35 59.65 58.35 59.24 Apr 09, 13:39 59.45 2.20 403 57.25 8573 n/a
Dec 08 57.82 60.14 57.82 59.81 Apr 09, 13:39 59.85 2.21 3974 57.64 57054 n/a
Jan 09 58.39 60.34 58.36 60.34 Apr 09, 13:39 60.05 2.21 3 57.84 2605 n/a
Mar 09 - 60.50 60.45 60.45 Apr 09, 13:39 60.45 2.15 103 58.30 4867 n/a
May 09 - 60.55 60.55 60.55 Apr 09, 13:39 60.55 2.15 89 58.40 2324 n/a
Jul 09 - 60.65 60.65 60.65 Apr 09, 13:39 60.65 2.15 3 58.50 1338 n/a
Aug 09 - 60.15 60.15 60.15 Apr 09, 13:39 60.15 2.15 4 58.00 262 n/a
Sep 09 - 59.65 59.65 59.65 Apr 09, 13:39 59.65 2.15 30 57.50 133 n/a
Oct 09 - 58.65 58.65 58.65 Apr 09, 13:39 58.65 2.15 7 56.50 112 n/a
Dec 09 - - 56.10 58.80 Apr 09, 13:39 58.45 2.15 28 56.30 1686 n/a
Jul 10 - 58.45 58.45 58.45 Apr 09, 13:39 58.45 2.15 0 56.30 0 n/a
Oct 10 - 58.45 58.45 58.45 Apr 09, 13:39 58.45 2.15 0 56.30 0 n/a
Dec 10 - 58.45 58.45 58.45 Apr 09, 13:39 58.45 2.15 9 56.30 5 n/a

Cotton Prices
Cotton Prices Rebounding in New York (Statistical Report)
10 April 2008 - Cotton prices Wednesday rallied in New York after financial investors returned to commodity markets amid new signs of lower economic growth in the United States and Asia. A surge in crude oil futures gave the signal of retreat from stock markets. Demand from spinners should consecutively fall in the near term

India's 2007-08 commodity exchanges turnover up 11pc
Mumbai - Turnover on India's commodity exchanges rose 11 per cent to Rs 40.66 trillion in the financial year ended March 31, data from the commodity market regulator Forward Markets Commission showed firmness.

Edible oils end limit up on buying
Mumbai - Indian vegetable oilseeds and oil complex closed sharply up with the soy oil and mustard seed ending limit up. The far-month contracts of soybean too hit the upper limit. The strong gains in all oils.