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#101
21st February 2008, 06:57 PM
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Re: Cotton
Top Stories
Cotton futures rally further Mumbai - Adding more to the previous gains, cotton rushed forward amid continued buying by traders during intraday trade on both the domestic exchanges Thursday. While NCDEX April cotton surged Rs 4 to Rs 501. 21/02 16:43 Cotton lint steady in west India 21/02 15:21 Cotton lint rushes ahead in north India 21/02 10:33 Cotton futures add more gains 21/02 10:07 ICE cotton rallies late on energies 
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#102
23rd February 2008, 09:33 AM
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Re: Cotton
Febuary 15, 2008
By: O.A. Cleveland, Ph.D. | Biography Tell me the direction of the oilseed/grains markets and I can rather accurately predict the cotton market. The story line continues…the cotton market is having great difficulty following its own fundamentals, following instead the grain and oilseed complex. While the New York market is focusing, to some degree on 2009 planted acreage, the fact that increasing carryover stocks in the world’s major exporting countries has failed hold prices down but only for brief periods. Cotton fundamentals attempt to pull the legs out from under the 70 cent level, only to find that concerns over grain and oilseed supplies push cotton prices back up. We have, on many occasions, cautioned you about how volatile the market has become. Too, there in nothing on the horizon that offers any let up in that situation. At the week’s risk management seminar sponsored by Cotton Incorporated, I cautioned growers not only about the continued bullish price environment created by the ethanol situation, but also the growing potential global vegetable oil crisis. I had first made that observation at the Certified FiberMax Quality Seminar for Chinese textile mills in October 2007. The New York December was the spot futures month at the time and I offered that 63 cents, basis December, would be low mark for the remainder of the contract, and it was. The next suggestion was that the March contract would not see anything below 67 cent—we now know it did go to 66 cents. I am now of the opinion that 69 cents will be the low in May once it becomes the spot trading month is just a few days. Price bubbles always burst, and the current one led by the grain/oilseed complex will be no exception. There are millions, hundreds of millions of acres in fact, in Europe, Central Asia, Africa, South America and even the U.S. (remember the CRP acres) that can be cropped if prices ratios demand that acreage. We do not have a land shortage. However, we cannot bring the needed land area into production is the short term. Thus, the price bubble will only grow larger in the near term. The false demand for ethanol, created by U.S. legislation, started the higher price ball rolling. However, it is the potential food shortage, created by record low vegetable oil stocks (in terms of per capita consumption) that will increase the life cycle of the current grain/oilseed led price bubble. Should the global vegetable oil crisis become more exaggerated, the price bubble for agricultural row crops could extend as far out as 2011-2012. Too, because of the competition for land area, that bubble will also lead to higher cotton prices. Likely, the market top will be in 2010. Yet, in the interim, cotton will remain historically volatile…as it gradually works its way toward higher and higher prices. The speculative community, specifically the large hedge funds and index funds, will increase their long positions in the cotton market. While the hedge funds can and will be quick to take profits from time to time, momentarily pulling the legs from under prices. However, the index funds will maintain their longs and hedge funds will again take new long market positions in cotton. The growing concern regarding the lack of subsoil moisture in Texas—they still have another six weeks or so--will also add to market support. It is, nevertheless, very doubtful that Texas can begin the cotton growing season with even as much as 50% of the level of last season. Thus, U.S. production, expected to range between 14.0 and 15.0 million bales, and will likely be on the very low side of that range. U.S. stocks could well slip as low as 3.5 million bales, and likely no more than 4.0 million. The December New York contract will touch 80 cents and the December contract should see ten cents higher.
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#103
23rd February 2008, 09:33 AM
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Re: Cotton
My07/08 Sales 483,800 (china 276,600)(thailand 40,300)(indonesia 33,100)
(turkey 27,200)(vietnam 15,500) My08/09 Sales 51,800 (mexico 48,000)(thailand 3,800) Pima 07/08 10,300 (indonesia 3,400)(india 2,300)(pakistan 1,700)(thailand 1,700) Exports My07/08 207,300 Pima 17,900 U.s. Export Sales For The Week Ending 02/14/08 (in 1,000 Running Bales) My 07/08 My 07/08 My 07/08 My 07/08 My 08/09 02/14 02/14 Total Total Total
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#104
23rd February 2008, 09:34 AM
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Re: Cotton
we include Cotlook and ICAC 2008/09 world statistics and USDA’s 2007/08 estimates:
USDA Ag Outlook 2008/09 Cotlook ICAC USDA 07/08 (in million 480 lb. bales) U.S. China World Beginning Stocks 8.2 17.1 57.3 52.5 59.0 Production 15.0 37.0 123.0 116.2 123.8 119.2 Mill Use 4.4 56.5 129.5 123.5 126.0 126.3 Ending Stocks 3.7 18.1 54.7 50.3 57.3
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#105
23rd February 2008, 11:40 AM
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Re: Cotton
Top Stories
Cotton futures enlarge gains Mumbai - Continuing positive trend of last few sessions, cotton accumulated more gains amid continued buying by traders during initial hours of trade on both the domestic exchanges Saturday
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#106
23rd February 2008, 07:24 PM
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Re: Cotton
Top Stories
Cotton futures amass sharp gains Mumbai - Getting strong support from the bullish international markets, cotton accumulated sharp gains amid continued buying by traders on both the domestic exchanges Saturday. While NCDEX April cotton. 23/02 15:26 Cotton lint S-6 soars Rs 800 in Gujarat 23/02 15:11 Cotton lint gains sharply in north India 23/02 09:40 ICE cotton rallies to highs 23/02 09:42 World cotton consumption to grow as econ...
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#107
24th February 2008, 01:51 PM
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Re: Cotton
Top Stories
World cotton consumption to grow as economy improves: USDA Arlington, Va - World cotton consumption is projected to increase in 2008-09 as the US and Europe work out their economic malaise while emerging markets continue to consume at slightly slowed rates,
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#108
25th February 2008, 04:38 PM
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Re: Cotton
LATEST RAW COTTON ARRIVALS
(Position as on 23rd (February 2008) The per day arrivals are reported around 1,60,000 bales. States 2007-08 2006-07 Quantity in lakh bales of 170 kgs Punjab 18.60 21.70 Haryana 11.75 12.75 Rajasthan 7.90 7.50 North Total 38.25 41.95 Gujarat 76.50 67.00 Maharashtra 51.75 43.00 Madhya Pradesh 16.75 14.50 Central Total 145.00 124.50 Andhra Pradesh 35.00 26.80 Karnataka 4.75 4.10 Tamil Nadu 1.85 1.90 South Total 41.60 32.80 Others 1.10 1.00 Total 225.95 200.25 Plus Loose lint 9.75 9.75 Grand Total 235.70 210.00
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#109
27th February 2008, 12:14 AM
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Re: Cotton
SALE QUOTES FOR COTTON SEASON 2007-08 FOR VARIETIES AND GRADES
FOR 26TH FEBRUARY, 2008 Branch Variety/Grade Staple length (mm) Micro Rate Rs.PCS Bhatinda J-34 SG SPL 27.0 4.0-4.9 22200 J-34 SG SUP 26.5 4.0-4.9 22100 J-34 DR SPL (L/C Bales) 27.5 4.0-4.9 22500 J-34 DR SUP (L/C Bales) 27.0 4.0-4.9 22400 Sirsa J-34 SG SUP 26.0 3.8-4.8 21000 J-34 SG SEL 25.0 3.8-4.8 20900 Sriganganagar J-34 SG SPL 25.0 3.8-4.8 20600 J-34 SG SUP 24.5 3.8-4.8 20400 J-34 SG SEL 24.0 3.8-4.8 20000 Bhilwara AGETI RG SPL 28.0 3.6-4.6 21800 AGETI RG SUP 27.0 3.7-4.7 21600 AGETI RG SEL 26.0 3.8-4.8 21300 Akola H-4 SUP MODERN 28.0 3.4-4.5 22100 Ahmedabad S-6 SUPER 28.0 3.6-4.5 22500 Rajkot S-6 SUPER 28.0 3.6-4.5 22700 Guntur BB PRM 30.0 3.4-4.7 22500 BB SUP 28.0 3.4-4.7 22100 Warangal BB SPL 29.0 3.4-4.7 22300 Adilabad BB PRM 30.0 3.4-4.7 22400 BB SPL 29.0 3.4-4.7 22100 Rayagada MCU-5 31.0 3.5-4.5 23300
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#110
27th February 2008, 12:16 AM
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Re: Cotton
EXPORT SALE QUOTES FOR COTTON SEASON 2007-08
Date: 26th February, 2008 BRANCH VARIETY / GRADE INDICATIVE PARAMETERS FOB Ex-NAVI MUMBAI QUOTES IN US CENTS/LB CNF Ex-BENAPOLE, QUOTES IN US CENTS/LB STAPLE LENGTH (mm) MIC 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 BHATINDA J-34 SG SPL 27.0 4.0 - 4.9 75.10 75.65 2 BHATINDA J-34 SG SUP 26.5 4.0 - 4.9 74.80 75.30 3 BHATINDA J-34 DR SPL 27.5 4.0 - 4.9 76.05 76.60 4 BHATINDA J-34 DR SUP 27.0 4.0 - 4.9 75.75 76.25 5 SRIGANGANAGAR J-34 SG SPL 25.0 3.8 - 4.8 69.50 70.25 6 SRIGANGANAGAR J-34 SG SUP 24.5 3.8 - 4.8 68.85 69.60 7 BHILWARA AGETTI RG SUP 27.0 3.7 - 4.7 72.50 73.45 8 AKOLA H-4 SUP (MOD) 28.0 3.4 - 4.5 74.30 75.60 9 AKOLA H-4 SUP (CON) 28.0 3.4 - 4.5 NQ NQ 10 AURANGABAD H-4 SUP (CON) 28.0 3.4 - 4.5 NQ NQ 11 RAJKOT S-6 SUP 28.0 3.6 - 4.5 75.60 78.40 12 WARANGAL BB PRM 30.0 3.4 - 4.7 NQ NQ 13 ADILABAD BB PRM 30.0 3.4 - 4.7 NQ NQ 14 ADILABAD BB SPL 29.0 3.4 - 4.7 NQ NQ 15 RAYAGADA BB PRM 30.0 3.5 - 4.5 NQ NQ
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